Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
990 FXUS64 KEPZ 210447 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 947 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 844 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Dry and seasonal weather conditions for Friday, with afternoon temperatures near normal. - Additional rain showers and light mountain snow will be possible heading into Saturday night and Sunday, but only light snow accumulations likely in the mountains. - Fair and seasonal weather expected for next week including Thanksgiving day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 844 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025 One upper level trough on the way out and a second upper level trough headed our way. Tonight the storm system that brought rain, wind, and even some high elevation snow is quickly moving off to our northeast, in its wake we will have a drier short wave ridge move across the region. This upper level ridge will keep our winds on the lighter side of things and it will give us drier and a little warmer conditions. On Saturday, despite an east push keeping our surface winds from the east; aloft, the southwest flow out ahead of the next storm system will help our high temperatures warm a few degrees above average. Late on Saturday the second upper level trough will begin to push across New Mexico. The second system is not as strong or have as much moisture to work with as the system that just past through. We will see some lowland rains and light mountain snow showers Saturday night through Sunday, but precipitation totals are light. The models have been backing off on the mountain snow showers for the last few days as more warm air is being drawn up into the region out ahead of the sytem. Snow levels on Saturday night will start off between 9 and 10K feet, finally lowering to around 7K by Sunday, but by that time most of the precipitation has wrapped up. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be near seasonal averages. For most of next week, a Midwest upper level trough and a West Coast upper level ridge will keep a dry northwest flow over the region. This pattern will keep us dry through at least Thanksgiving day with high temperatures each day near seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 844 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025 The clouds have left the region, except for some low clouds lingering over area mountains. We will have unlimited ceilings for the rest of tonight and through the day on Friday. The gusty winds have almost completely dropped off and we will have light southwest winds for the rest of tonight and those light winds will continue through the day on Friday. Another upper level storm system will approach the region, but the clouds and precipitation will hold off until Saturday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1041 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025 Our current storm system is beginning to lift away from the region, as it opens up and tracks NE into Colorado this afternoon and evening. The region got widespread wetting rain overnight, with the Gila seeing 0.50" to 1.00", the SACs getting 0.25-0.75", and the lowlands seeing a wide range, with N and W areas getting over 0.50" up to 1.00", and southern areas less. Still some rain chances this afternoon, but limited and light amounts remain. Friday and Saturday will be days between storms, with a deep SW flow pattern and weak ridging aloft. This means fair weather, with cool, near seasonal temperatures, dry conditions, but elevated RH, and lighter winds. Saturday evening through Sunday, the next Pacific storm system begins to swing across the region. We will see increased moisture from both the SW (with the system) and the SE, ahead of the system. Another round of widespread rain shower, and high elevation snow activity is expected Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be cool, with increased cloud cover, and elevated RH values. This second storm system will exit later in the day on Sunday with a drier, and continued cool, NW flow returning over the region, behind the departing storm. For next week, we see persistent ridging over the E Pac/W coast. This means a string of fair weather and no passing storm systems. The storm track will get shoved well to our north. Temperatures will remain "coolish" and near seasonal normals. Winds generally light, and relative humidity staying at 30 percent or higher. No precipitation expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 41 70 50 / 80 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 37 68 45 / 80 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 35 65 42 / 80 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 35 65 42 / 90 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 27 48 30 / 90 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 38 61 42 / 90 0 0 0 Silver City 54 35 58 38 / 90 0 0 0 Deming 61 35 67 42 / 80 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 35 63 41 / 60 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 42 68 49 / 80 0 0 0 Dell City 64 33 68 45 / 80 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 67 39 75 47 / 70 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 39 62 44 / 90 0 0 0 Fabens 64 37 72 46 / 80 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 36 67 45 / 70 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 41 67 47 / 90 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 32 65 42 / 80 0 0 0 Hatch 61 33 68 42 / 90 0 0 0 Columbus 62 38 68 45 / 70 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 34 65 44 / 80 0 0 0 Mayhill 57 30 57 34 / 80 0 0 0 Mescalero 53 29 60 33 / 80 0 0 0 Timberon 50 28 55 32 / 90 0 0 0 Winston 51 27 55 32 / 90 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 36 61 39 / 90 0 0 0 Spaceport 57 30 63 39 / 90 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 30 59 34 / 90 0 0 0 Hurley 55 33 60 37 / 80 0 0 0 Cliff 59 33 65 40 / 80 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 31 62 37 / 70 0 0 0 Faywood 54 36 60 40 / 90 0 0 0 Animas 61 34 64 42 / 50 0 0 0 Hachita 59 32 63 39 / 60 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 61 34 63 40 / 40 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 39 60 42 / 50 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice