561
FXUS64 KEPZ 050444
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1044 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Low chance of showers and storms in far eastern areas each
    afternoon through Friday.

 -  Temperatures steadily climb into the weekend, with highs in
    the lower deserts climbing above 100 degrees again, the
    hottest days will be Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 951 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Dry, southwesterly flow persists for Thu, keeping us free of storm
chances with the exception of Hudspeth county where some surface
moisture lingers. Dew points fall to the 20s during the afternoon
as the dryline mixes out and pushes eastward. Friday looks pretty
similar as the upper ridge stays to the southeast and the best
moisture is just to the east of our CWA ahead of the dryline.

The heat cranks up as we head into the weekend. Upper ridging
expands and shifts westward from S TX with 500mb heights reaching
592-593 dam both Sat and Sun and 850mb temps peaking at 35C for
KELP on Sun. These values aren`t super impressive for extreme heat
(we`d need closer to 600 dam heights for highs near 110F). The
center of the upper high stays to our south in northern Mexico,
but it`s close enough to be a problem. NBM percentiles show
medium-high confidence in highs near or above 105F for KELP from
Sat-Mon, so Heat Advisories will likely be hoisted in the next
24-48 hours for the lower RGV zones at least. Sunday still looks
to be the hottest day of the period with 50th percentile NBM
spitting out 107F and about a 10% chance of reaching 110F (daily
record is 106 for context).

Our 500mb heights fall to 590 dam or below by Monday along with
850mb temps as the upper ridge is squeezed west into the E-Pac,
allowing sfc temps to begin to cool. Northwesterly flow aloft and
return of moisture from the east take over into the middle of
next week, allowing low rain/storm chances to return for some
areas, especially the mountains late in the forecast period. We`ll
see where any upper troughs/features develop that could make
things more active for us, but the models are struggling to
resolve what the pattern looks like once the upper high shifts to
the west. More seasonal temps (lowland highs in mid-upper 90s)
return after Monday as most areas stay dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 951 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mainly SKC
persists with FEW250 passing by and a few CU developing in the
afternoon. Winds AOB 7kts tonight, becoming gusty during the
afternoon from S-SW, especially at KTCS which could see gusts up
to 30kts. Winds subside to AOB 10kts from W late in the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Winds will not be much of an issue the next 5 days, but we will
continue to see very low min RH`s. In the lowlands min RH`s will
be well into the single digits, while in area mountains we will
see min RH`s of 10 to 15% through Sunday. There will continue to
be a slight chance for thunderstorms in far eastern Hudspeth and
Otero counties the next couple of days. Temperatures will become
more of a factor as we head into the weekend, with high
temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  96  69  98  70 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  62  93  65 /  10  20  10  30
Las Cruces               91  60  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               90  61  93  62 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               68  47  71  50 /  20  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    90  62  93  64 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              82  55  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   93  60  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                89  58  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       93  68  95  70 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City                90  65  97  65 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             99  66 100  70 /  10  10   0  30
Loma Linda               86  61  89  65 /   0  10   0  10
Fabens                   96  64  98  67 /   0  10   0  20
Santa Teresa             91  63  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            90  58  93  60 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    93  58  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 93  64  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  61  92  63 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  77  50  83  53 /  30  10   0   0
Mescalero                79  51  81  53 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                 76  48  80  51 /  20  10   0   0
Winston                  81  47  85  49 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro                89  56  91  60 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                90  56  91  58 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             84  51  86  52 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    89  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               84  55  86  55 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  85  57  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   90  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  90  58  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  57  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               83  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson