Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
974
FXUS64 KEPZ 030440
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1040 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly east of El Paso
Sunday afternoon and evening.
- The monsoon takes a break, with high pressure building aloft,
promoting hot and dry conditions through at least the end of
the week.
- Lowland high temperatures will reach triple digits each
afternoon through next week. A Heat Advisory for El Paso and
the Lower Valley is in effect for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Radar is precip-free across the CWA tonight, the last echoes
having dissipated about an hour ago. The subtropical ridge will
settle across southern Arizona on Sunday, with drier NE Flow
shutting off precip chances for most of the CWA. Some residual
moisture will linger east of El Paso, and isolated showers or
possibly a thunderstorm could develop to our east, especially
southern Otero and into Hudspeth Counties.
That`ll be it for a while, as the monsoon takes a not-at-all
unusual break for the week ahead. The subtropical ridge will park
itself right over southern New Mexico by Tuesday, and pretty much
stay put through the end of the week. Slight chances for precip
sneak back into the forecast late in the week as some recycled
moisture undercuts the ridge.
The GFS ensemble mean PWAT values at ELP drop to around 0.50
inches to start the week, then slowly climb only to plateau around
0.70 inches Tuesday through Friday. The EC ensembles show a
similar pattern, with the driest overall conditions Monday and
Tuesday, followed by some moderation, but no real return to normal
values until next Sunday or the following Monday.
With the drier air and upper ridge parked overhead, temperatures
will climb into the 100s across the lowlands. El Paso and the
Lower Valley will most likely meet or exceed 105 Monday and
Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday as well. Will need to watch other
lowland areas such as Deming as well, but so far it appears max
temps will fall just short of Heat Advisory criteria there.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Expect VFR conditions overnight with light and variable winds.
Precip chances will begin to dwindle on Sunday, with just
isolated convection mainly east of ELP after 18-20Z. Precip
chances will be nearly nil much of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Hot and dry conditions will be returning to the entire area for
the next 4-5 days with just some isolated storms this afternoon.
High temperatures will be warming into the 100-107 range for the
lowlands with the mountains in the 80s and 90s. RH`s will be
plummeting into the 5-15% range by Monday and continue through at
least midweek. Winds will be light through the period and remain
under 15 mph. Some moisture is expected to move around the
developing upper ridge by late in the week with some isolated
storms possible.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 76 103 77 106 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 70 97 72 99 / 10 10 10 10
Las Cruces 70 100 69 102 / 10 0 0 0
Alamogordo 69 98 70 99 / 10 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 55 75 54 77 / 10 10 0 10
Truth or Consequences 68 100 69 101 / 20 0 0 0
Silver City 64 92 66 96 / 20 0 0 0
Deming 67 102 66 102 / 10 0 0 0
Lordsburg 69 99 66 100 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 75 99 74 103 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 70 100 70 104 / 10 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 74 103 75 105 / 10 10 10 0
Loma Linda 69 93 70 95 / 10 0 0 0
Fabens 73 103 73 105 / 10 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 72 98 72 103 / 10 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 73 99 74 102 / 10 0 0 0
Jornada Range 68 100 67 102 / 10 0 0 0
Hatch 70 102 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
Columbus 72 102 71 101 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 70 96 69 98 / 10 0 0 0
Mayhill 60 86 59 87 / 10 10 0 10
Mescalero 58 87 58 88 / 10 10 0 10
Timberon 56 84 56 85 / 10 10 0 10
Winston 57 90 56 93 / 30 0 0 0
Hillsboro 64 99 66 97 / 20 0 0 0
Spaceport 67 101 67 98 / 20 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 51 92 51 94 / 20 0 0 0
Hurley 64 95 63 99 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 56 99 55 100 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 55 95 54 96 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 65 94 65 98 / 20 0 0 0
Animas 70 99 66 100 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 68 98 66 98 / 10 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 68 98 66 98 / 20 10 10 0
Cloverdale 65 93 65 94 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 77 103 76 105 / 10 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 68 97 68 100 / 10 30 20 10
Las Cruces 70 99 68 100 / 10 10 0 0
Alamogordo 71 99 69 102 / 10 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 54 76 53 78 / 10 10 0 10
Truth or Consequences 69 99 68 99 / 30 0 0 0
Silver City 64 92 63 94 / 20 0 0 0
Deming 70 102 65 103 / 10 0 0 0
Lordsburg 70 99 65 99 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 76 100 74 102 / 10 10 0 0
Dell City 71 101 70 102 / 0 20 10 0
Fort Hancock 75 102 74 106 / 10 20 10 10
Loma Linda 70 94 70 96 / 10 20 10 0
Fabens 74 102 72 103 / 10 20 10 0
Santa Teresa 74 99 71 101 / 10 10 0 0
White Sands HQ 75 99 74 101 / 10 10 0 0
Jornada Range 70 98 68 99 / 20 0 0 0
Hatch 70 101 67 102 / 20 0 0 0
Columbus 73 102 71 102 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 71 97 68 100 / 10 10 10 0
Mayhill 58 87 58 88 / 10 10 0 10
Mescalero 59 87 58 89 / 10 10 0 10
Timberon 57 84 58 86 / 10 10 0 10
Winston 58 91 56 93 / 30 0 0 0
Hillsboro 64 98 65 99 / 30 0 0 0
Spaceport 67 97 64 99 / 20 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 93 56 95 / 20 0 0 0
Hurley 64 95 63 96 / 20 0 0 0
Cliff 66 99 63 101 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 63 95 62 96 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 67 95 65 97 / 20 0 0 0
Animas 70 99 65 100 / 10 10 0 0
Hachita 69 99 65 99 / 10 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 69 98 65 99 / 20 10 0 0
Cloverdale 67 94 65 95 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman