Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
983
FXUS64 KEPZ 210429
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1029 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1029 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026
- We will see less thunderstorms on Tuesday with rain mainly in
area mountains and west of the Rio Grande.
- Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to run below average.
- Drier and warmer weather pattern starts midweek, lowering storm
chances. Lowland temperatures will begin reaching triple digits
by Thursday and Friday and continuing into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026
The upper level low that helped generate wide spread
thunderstorms with heavy rain on Monday, will continue to slowly
drift to the west. The threat for heavy rain on Tuesday afternoon
will be reduced, we will still have plenty of moisture in the
atmosphere, but the better dynamics will begin to push into
Arizona. High temperatures will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees
below average. Enjoy the "cooler" weather, since it won`t last
long.
On Wednesday the upper level ridge to our northeast will begin to
build into New Mexico, which will push most of the moisture into
Arizona and start to really limit our thunderstorm coverage. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be near or a degree or two below
average. For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will slide
into New Mexico and we will see high temperature creep 5 to 10
degrees above average. Many lowland locations will see triple
digit heat on Friday (if not on Thursday). For the weekend, the
upper level ridge drifts a little further north. This will allow a
little moisture to bring some thunderstorm chances mainly in area
mountains and to keep most lowland locations high temperatures
above the triple digit mark. For the start of next week, the exact
location of the upper level ridge is still in doubt, but no matter
what, things still look pretty hot with just a slight chance for
rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026
After another busy weather day, the thunderstorm activity has
finally begin to slow down. We will continue to see high and mid
ceilings tonight, especially west of the Rio Grande. On Tuesday we
will see lower rain chances with the best chances for
thunderstorms in area mountains and west of the Rio Grande. Like
the last few days, my confidence is not high that any TAF sites
will take a direct hit from a thunderstorm, especially
considering the lower coverage. We will amend TAF`s if
thunderstorms look to impact a TAF site. For much of Tuesday we
will see off and on high and mid ceilings. Our winds tonight will
be light and the winds on Tuesday away from thunderstorms will be
generally light from the south. Though not as likely, we will
still see a chance for outflow winds to occur Tuesday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1006 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026
Fire weather concerns will be low through the week. Scattered to
widespread thunderstorms develop this afternoon over area mtns,
drifting southwest through the lowlands into the evening. Abundant
moisture will keep the flood threat around today, especially out
west and in much of Otero County where a Flood Watch is in effect.
The flood threat looks to be somewhat low along the RGV, but still
present. Frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds to 40 mph are
possible. Drier air moves in starting Tue from the east, pushing
storm chances to the west through midweek. Mainly dry conditions
later this week with temperatures rising to above normal. Winds
will be light, generally from the S-SE.
Min RHs range from 35-65% through Tue, falling to 15-35% by Fri.
Vent rates will be poor to good through Tue, then fair to good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 90 72 95 / 50 10 20 10
Sierra Blanca 62 86 65 91 / 30 20 10 10
Las Cruces 64 87 66 92 / 50 20 30 10
Alamogordo 64 88 68 93 / 30 40 20 20
Cloudcroft 49 67 51 71 / 40 60 20 40
Truth or Consequences 68 87 69 91 / 40 60 30 10
Silver City 59 80 60 84 / 60 70 60 30
Deming 63 90 64 94 / 70 40 40 0
Lordsburg 64 85 64 90 / 50 60 50 10
West El Paso Metro 70 88 72 94 / 50 10 20 10
Dell City 66 91 69 96 / 30 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 69 93 72 98 / 40 20 10 10
Loma Linda 63 83 66 88 / 40 20 10 10
Fabens 68 91 71 96 / 40 20 20 10
Santa Teresa 67 86 68 92 / 60 10 20 10
White Sands HQ 70 88 73 93 / 40 20 30 10
Jornada Range 65 88 68 92 / 40 30 30 10
Hatch 66 90 67 95 / 40 40 30 10
Columbus 68 88 69 94 / 60 30 40 0
Orogrande 64 87 67 92 / 40 30 20 10
Mayhill 54 79 56 82 / 20 50 10 30
Mescalero 53 77 55 81 / 30 70 20 50
Timberon 51 76 54 79 / 40 40 20 20
Winston 58 79 58 82 / 50 70 40 50
Hillsboro 64 85 64 88 / 50 60 40 20
Spaceport 63 87 65 91 / 30 60 30 10
Lake Roberts 55 81 56 85 / 70 80 60 50
Hurley 60 82 61 87 / 60 60 50 20
Cliff 62 86 63 90 / 50 80 60 40
Mule Creek 60 83 60 86 / 50 90 60 30
Faywood 62 82 63 86 / 60 60 40 20
Animas 64 84 64 90 / 60 60 40 10
Hachita 62 84 62 90 / 70 50 40 0
Antelope Wells 64 82 64 89 / 80 70 40 0
Cloverdale 61 78 61 85 / 60 80 50 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-
Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West
Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice