Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
852 FXUS64 KEPZ 101658 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1058 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1024 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 - Drier and somewhat breezy conditions Friday. - Remnant tropical moisture will flow over the area Saturday through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain threat will be favored in southern and western areas with flooding possible. - Temperatures will be near or above normal through Saturday, then cooling early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1024 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Tropical disturbances Priscilla and Raymond are currently spinning in the Pacific off the west coast as a burly closed low flirts with the Pac NW. As we go into the short term forecast, moisture will become entrained by the southwest flow generated by the PacNW low, allowing for a continued surge across the Desert Southwest through the weekend. The 12Z sounding showed a 1.10 in PWAT this morning, a value quickly approaching the daily max of 1.16 in, which paints a solid picture of the conditions to come as we move into Saturday. Remnants of Priscilla will get advected into southwest NM, bringing late Saturday PWATs at EPZ to a record- breaking 1.34 in. The forecast challenge then becomes exactly how convective Saturday`s rounds of precip will be. Ample cloud cover will work to limit instability, thus hampering rain rates, and relatively brisk storm motion will help to mitigate flash flooding. By Sunday, Raymond`s moisture fuses with the remnants of Priscilla as the upper trough swings into the northern Rockies. Uncertainty lies in where the deepest moisture will exist alongside the more favorable forcing to create flood risk. Models still suggest that areas along and south of the I-10 corridor will be favored for heavier rainfall on Sunday, where embedded disturbances will work to enhance rain rates. As the trough associated with the weekend weather moves into southern CAN, a second upper low will be hot on its heels. This disturbance will slide into the PacNW late Sunday night, allowing for the southwest flow aloft to continue scooping moisture into the region. A bit of dry slotting looks to occur for the early part of Monday but as the trough digs slightly south that afternoon, moisture begins to overcome the dry air. This will lead to another round of widespread rain Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. The upper low`s track may bring continued rainfall through midweek, should the GFS solution verify. ECMWF is less enthused, but still suggests more localized bouts of rainfall. Moisture is scoured out Thursday as the drier, more robust southwest flow aloft intrudes into the region, leading to dry conditions to close out the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 VFR conditions to prevail through the critical TAF period with typical aftn gusts. Isold shwrs will move into wrn NM aft 11/11Z, spreading ewd through the end of the TAF period. Low probabilities for brief and lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys due direct hits to terminals, with KTCS and KDMN being the more favored locations. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Low level moisture will remain in place through the period with min RH`s in the 30s early on but by Sunday into Tuesday will be up into the 40s to 60s. Generally dry through Friday, but precip will start moving in early Saturday from the west and spread east by early Sunday. Chances for rainfall will continue through at least Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall amounts possible leading to flooding. The rain looks more stratiform with isolated embedded thunderstorms, so it will be more of a moderate, prolonged rain event. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 88 67 73 / 0 50 60 70 Sierra Blanca 58 84 60 69 / 0 20 30 70 Las Cruces 63 82 63 69 / 10 50 60 70 Alamogordo 62 83 61 70 / 0 40 60 60 Cloudcroft 45 62 46 50 / 0 40 50 60 Truth or Consequences 63 80 60 70 / 10 50 50 50 Silver City 58 76 56 63 / 30 70 80 70 Deming 65 83 64 70 / 10 60 70 80 Lordsburg 65 82 61 67 / 30 70 70 80 West El Paso Metro 68 87 67 71 / 10 50 70 80 Dell City 60 87 63 72 / 0 10 30 50 Fort Hancock 65 90 67 74 / 0 20 40 70 Loma Linda 59 80 60 65 / 0 30 60 70 Fabens 65 90 67 72 / 0 30 50 70 Santa Teresa 65 85 64 70 / 10 50 60 80 White Sands HQ 65 84 64 70 / 10 50 70 70 Jornada Range 63 82 61 70 / 10 50 60 70 Hatch 65 84 63 72 / 10 50 60 70 Columbus 66 85 64 71 / 10 60 70 80 Orogrande 62 83 61 67 / 0 50 60 70 Mayhill 49 74 53 62 / 0 30 50 60 Mescalero 50 74 51 64 / 10 50 60 60 Timberon 48 71 49 59 / 0 40 50 60 Winston 52 73 51 63 / 20 50 60 50 Hillsboro 59 81 57 66 / 20 50 60 60 Spaceport 61 81 59 69 / 10 50 60 60 Lake Roberts 54 76 52 65 / 20 70 70 70 Hurley 59 77 57 65 / 20 70 70 70 Cliff 62 82 60 70 / 30 70 80 60 Mule Creek 58 78 56 67 / 30 80 80 60 Faywood 60 77 59 65 / 20 60 70 70 Animas 65 84 61 68 / 30 70 70 80 Hachita 64 82 61 67 / 20 70 80 90 Antelope Wells 63 84 61 68 / 10 60 70 90 Cloverdale 61 78 59 62 / 20 70 80 90 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99