Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
939 FXUS64 KEPZ 271652 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 952 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 912 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Today, Thanksgiving day, fair and dry weather, with increasing high clouds, mild temperatures, and light winds. - High pressure along the west coast, and over the southwestern U.S. will keep the storm track to our north. Passing Pacific troughs will clip the region, with little potential for any precipitation through next week. Temperatures will cool a bit next week, but remain somewhat above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 912 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 Mild weather conditions will continue into the weekend for the border region. A short wave high pressure ridge will transition into a westerly zonal flow aloft through Sunday. This will result in continued dry conditions with mostly sunny skies with variable high clouds. Winds will continue to be light and mainly from the south for the rest of Thanksgiving Day. Winds will become more westerly Friday and Saturday with light breeziness in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild and seasonably warm through Saturday. A cold front will push part way into the area from the east and may reach as far as Deming before retreating back to the east. Winds will shift to a more easterly direction early Sunday with stronger wind gusts expected along the west slopes of area mountains from Deming to the east. The cold air behind the front will be somewhat attenuated, limiting its coldest impacts to mainly eastern zones of Otero and Hudspeth counties on Sunday. On Monday, a low pressure trough will drop south from the from the Four Corners region and then move eastward through northern and central New Mexico. Forecast models continue to struggle with the details of this system. However model trends continue to indicate a poor but non-zero chance for precipitation on Monday. The higher mountains of the Sacramento Mountains and the Black Range will have the best chances for measurable precip, but any showers will isolated, brief with only light accumulations expected. For Tuesday and Wednesday, dry conditions will return to the area under a northwest to west flow aloft. Temperatures will remain seasonal at or slightly above normal through the week. Long range models indicate another potential weather system late next week, but precipitation chances remain very uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 912 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period for all terminals. Skies will transition from SKC to BKN250 through the day, with CIGs staying very high. Winds will stay light, in the 3-7kt range, and shift from NNW to N in the morning to E-SE in the afternoon, turning light and variable overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 912 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025 Low fire weather concerns through the forecast period as the region remains under a dry westerly flow pattern with storm systems passing to the north of the local area. Mild weather conditions will persist through the weekend with fair skies and generally light westerly winds with some light breeziness in the afternoon through Saturday. Temperatures will run about 5 to 7 degrees above normal through Saturday. A cold front will lower temperatures and shift winds more from the east for areas east of Deming on Sunday with higher gusts on west facing slopes of area mountains. There is a very low chance of precipitation for Monday as a weather system passes to the north of the area. Dry conditions return through the middle of next week. Vent Rates should improve to fair to good Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 44 72 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 39 69 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 38 67 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 37 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 30 48 29 48 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 38 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 34 71 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 36 67 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 36 71 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 76 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 64 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 42 73 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 40 69 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 69 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 32 67 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 35 71 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 39 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 39 66 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 32 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 31 58 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 30 56 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 27 63 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 39 69 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 34 66 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 31 63 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 33 66 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 32 69 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 32 64 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 37 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 36 70 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 34 70 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 37 71 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 42 64 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen