Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
098 FXUS64 KEPZ 181132 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 532 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms area wide this weekend and on Monday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. - Storm chances decrease next week, becoming more isolated and limited mostly to western New Mexico by Tuesday. Drier and warmer conditions expected along the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Upper level low is currently spinning over the Trans-Pecos Region, with several weak, and likely poorly-sampled impulses embedded in northeast flow dropping in across southern New Mexico. 200 mb streamlines show weakly diffluent flow across the Rio Grande Valley in southern NM, before becoming weakly convergent over SW New Mexico and the northern Sierra Madres. Radar imagery shows widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of the central part of the CWA and into northern Chihuahua, with several outflow boundaries about the area. This will result in a chaotic scattering of showers and occasional thunderstorms overnight, amplified to some extent by an apparent disturbance dropping in from the north, which has led to an uptick in precip coverage over Sierra and northern Otero Counties in the past couple of hours. Eventually precip coverage looks to converge in south-central New Mexico in the pre-dawn hours, and we`ll likely have an MCV to deal with tomorrow. The HRRR has been hinting at a slow start to convection in the south- central lowlands tomorrow, and a stabilized environment from widespread overnight showers would certainly bring that. We`ll have to get rid of any MCV and associated debris clouds and remnant morning showers in order to destabilize tomorrow. There is an outside chance for localized heavy rainfall still tonight, if we can get outflow boundaries to converge at the right time and place, especially if they are well timed with the disturbance riding in from the north. The most likely area would be in south-central NM. The latest RRFS members are throwing a bit of a curve-ball, suggesting deeper convection in SW New Mexico tomorrow evening, while the HRRR has been inconsistent. A lot will depend on the situation we wake up to tomorrow (debris clouds, etc). But the overall pattern continues to favor a pattern that is favorable for bringing storms into the lowlands in the late afternoon and evening hours, with light N to NE flow aloft prevailing. Slow storm motion, combined with outflow mergers, and PWAT values around 1.35 inches will favor localized heavy rainfall. Without a really clear signal for where exactly things will come together, it is difficult to support issuing a Flash Flood Watch as the false alarm area would be very large. In these environments, issuing Flood Watches on time scales similar to severe/convective watches is recommended, and we can let the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks do some of the heavier lifting. GFS Ensemble plumes show PWAT values averaging 1.35 inches each day through Monday. Larger scale models continue to show heavy rain potential for Sunday afternoon and evening, again targeting the lowlands. This may help tone things down on Monday as instability will begin to wane, and the upper low weakens into an open trough over the Big Bend Region, with mid-level easterly flow limiting upper level support, and 500mb temps rise to around -3 to -4C. The moisture will still be there, but the forcing will be much weaker. Then we`re looking at a steep decline in moisture and continued warm temperatures aloft through the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Scattered -SHRA along the International Border this morning, drifting south. Temporary MVFR ceilings through 14Z due to SCT- BKN030, then clearing. Conditions generally SCT-BKN090 this morning, with surface winds 230-280 at 5 to 10 knots. Scattered TSRA developing again after 18Z, first over S NM mountains. TS likely to affect all TAF sites this evening between 22-04Z, with temporary MVFR conditions due to TSRA and wind gusts up to 40KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (60-80% coverage over GNF/LNF each afternoon) through Monday. Storms will be capable of sudden, gusty winds, burn scar flooding, and new lightning starts. Heavy rain will pose a risk of canyon and burn scar flooding. Min RH 40-60% with very good overnight RH recovery. Moisture and rain chances will keep fire weather risk is through the weekend. Moisture shifts west next week, leading to a decrease in storm coverage Tuesday into the latter half of the week ahead. Isolated storms will still be possible across western NM and Gila NF, but overall drier and warmer. ERCs are near or below normal due to recent rains, therefore minimal fire growth is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 71 92 71 91 / 60 30 60 40 Sierra Blanca 63 86 63 85 / 60 60 50 50 Las Cruces 66 90 65 89 / 50 40 50 50 Alamogordo 67 88 66 89 / 40 60 50 60 Cloudcroft 50 68 50 69 / 50 80 50 80 Truth or Consequences 70 91 69 90 / 20 40 30 40 Silver City 60 84 60 83 / 20 70 30 80 Deming 66 94 65 93 / 40 50 50 60 Lordsburg 65 90 66 89 / 30 20 50 70 West El Paso Metro 72 91 72 90 / 60 30 60 40 Dell City 66 90 67 91 / 50 50 50 30 Fort Hancock 70 93 70 92 / 80 50 50 50 Loma Linda 64 84 64 84 / 80 50 60 40 Fabens 69 93 70 92 / 80 40 60 40 Santa Teresa 68 90 68 88 / 60 30 60 40 White Sands HQ 72 91 71 91 / 60 50 50 50 Jornada Range 67 90 66 90 / 40 50 40 50 Hatch 68 94 67 93 / 30 50 40 50 Columbus 71 93 70 91 / 50 30 60 60 Orogrande 66 88 66 88 / 50 50 40 40 Mayhill 55 78 54 80 / 50 70 40 70 Mescalero 54 78 54 79 / 40 80 40 80 Timberon 52 75 52 76 / 50 80 50 70 Winston 58 83 58 83 / 20 70 40 70 Hillsboro 65 89 64 88 / 30 60 30 60 Spaceport 65 90 64 90 / 20 50 30 50 Lake Roberts 55 85 56 84 / 30 80 40 90 Hurley 61 87 61 86 / 20 70 30 80 Cliff 62 89 63 89 / 20 70 30 80 Mule Creek 60 86 61 85 / 30 70 40 80 Faywood 63 87 63 86 / 30 70 40 80 Animas 65 89 66 88 / 20 20 50 60 Hachita 64 90 64 88 / 30 30 60 70 Antelope Wells 66 89 66 87 / 20 40 70 70 Cloverdale 62 83 63 82 / 30 30 60 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt