Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
968 FXUS64 KEPZ 190443 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1043 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 957 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Deeper monsoonal moisture on southerly winds will on Tuesday, with abundant cloud cover and chances for thunderstorms. - Moisture will slowly diminish around midweek to near normal on Wednesday, allowing for more isolated storms. Even drier air expected Thursday, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 957 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 High pressure will migrate towards the the Four Corners Region and strengthen a bit on Tuesday, leading to some warming aloft. This will likely cause a decrease in storm coverage compared to Monday, though moisture levels will still be sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms. The 00Z sounding showed an impressive 1.48" PWAT across the Borderland, a value within spitting distance of the daily max. This means any storms that form will have access to abundant moisture and will be able to create efficient rainmakers once again on Tuesday. An enhanced risk of flash flooding will persist. The upper high will strengthen further on Wednesday, along with a drop in PWATs. Storm coverage will reduce considerably, with afternoon thunderstorms staying majority localized to the high terrain. A dry airmass will work to intrude into the region Thursday and Friday, further squashing precipitation chances. Temperatures will begin to climb but thankfully, the CAA will help to temper highs, keeping them near to slightly above seasonal averages. Dry conditions will prevail into the weekend and early next week, with the exception of a few afternoon high terrain storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Convective activity is continuing to diminish across the forecast area. Winds will become light and vrb overnight with slowly diminishing cloud cover. Another round of aftn tstms is expected tomorrow aft 19/18Z, initiating over the high terrain and then moving into the lowlands. Any direct hits to terminals will likely result in brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Activity will diminish towards the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Minimal to nil fire concerns continue as monsoonal moisture remains in place. This afternoon and evening will feature more showers and thunderstorms, initiating first in the mountains before moving into the lowlands. We will see another night of good to excellent recoveries while afternoon RH values range 25 to 35 in the lowlands tomorrow afternoon. Tuesday will feature more afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms. Starting Wednesday, we will see a slow decrease in moisture with a decrease in storm coverage. Thursday sees a sharper decrease ending storm chances for all but the mountains. Min RH values will remain above 20%, however. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will be light. Venting will generally range fair to good, increasing throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 94 74 95 / 50 30 30 20 Sierra Blanca 67 87 65 88 / 40 60 20 50 Las Cruces 68 91 68 90 / 50 30 30 10 Alamogordo 69 89 67 90 / 40 40 30 30 Cloudcroft 51 68 49 67 / 40 70 30 60 Truth or Consequences 69 90 69 90 / 40 30 30 20 Silver City 63 86 62 86 / 50 60 40 50 Deming 69 94 70 95 / 50 30 40 10 Lordsburg 68 94 70 94 / 50 40 50 20 West El Paso Metro 73 92 72 92 / 50 30 30 20 Dell City 70 92 67 91 / 30 30 10 20 Fort Hancock 71 93 71 94 / 40 50 20 40 Loma Linda 67 86 66 85 / 40 50 20 30 Fabens 71 93 70 93 / 40 30 20 20 Santa Teresa 71 91 70 92 / 50 30 30 20 White Sands HQ 72 92 72 92 / 50 40 30 30 Jornada Range 69 91 68 90 / 50 40 30 30 Hatch 69 94 68 93 / 50 40 30 20 Columbus 70 94 71 94 / 50 30 40 10 Orogrande 68 89 67 89 / 40 30 20 30 Mayhill 56 79 55 78 / 40 60 30 60 Mescalero 55 80 54 79 / 40 70 30 50 Timberon 54 76 54 76 / 40 60 20 50 Winston 56 84 56 85 / 40 50 40 40 Hillsboro 64 90 64 90 / 50 40 40 30 Spaceport 67 90 67 90 / 50 40 30 20 Lake Roberts 57 86 57 86 / 50 70 50 60 Hurley 64 88 65 88 / 50 50 40 30 Cliff 65 93 66 93 / 50 70 40 40 Mule Creek 62 89 62 90 / 40 70 40 50 Faywood 64 87 65 87 / 50 50 40 40 Animas 68 94 69 94 / 50 40 50 20 Hachita 66 92 67 92 / 60 40 50 10 Antelope Wells 65 91 67 91 / 60 40 40 10 Cloverdale 64 88 65 88 / 60 40 50 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99