Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
087 FXUS64 KEPZ 151811 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1211 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1059 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 - An uptick in thunderstorm coverage, including in the lowlands, is expected this weekend into Monday, as an upper low travels across northern Mexico. - Localized flash flooding will be the main hazard from storms, typical for mid-end Monsoon days. Blowing dust and strong outflow winds may occur from storms over the lowland deserts. - Another dry and warmer spell is on the way for next week as the ridge drifts west. Rain chances may improve toward the end of next wee as weak disturbances dropping in from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1059 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue as monsoonal moisture remains over the area. Thunderstorm development this afternoon may be enhanced a little by a nearby mesoscale convective vortex sitting south of the area. Otherwise, mountain orographic lift and day time heating will develop showers and storms that will favor the mountain zones and parts of Hudspeth county this afternoon and early evening. Storms will redevelop again Sunday afternoon with coverage beginning to shift more to the western parts of the local forecast area. The main impacts from these storms will be brief periods of heavy rain that could cause localized minor flooding, and strong winds gusts mixed with blowing dust in dust prone areas. A pattern change to a drier less active weather pattern will begin Monday as high pressure rebuilds over the state from the east. The strengthening high aloft will suppress some storm development while also pushing deeper moisture back toward Arizona. This drying trend will become more pronounced as the week progresses. With increasing high pressure aloft, a return to 100 degree temperatures in the lowlands is expected much of next week. Current forecast models are underplaying the temperatures a few degrees, warmer values expected, especially in the middle and latter parts of next week. Thunderstorm development will continue occur but will be restricted to mainly the mountain areas where orographic lift can aid in storm development. Rain chances may improve toward the end of next week as the center of the high pressure drifts more to the north, allowing recycled moisture to move into the region for a slight improvement thunderstorm development. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Mostly VFR conditions through the valid period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, generally east of a KELP to KALM line with greater coverage over the mountains including the Newman Gap east of KELP. KELP may be impacted by a thunderstorm in the mid to late afternoon. The main threat from the storms will be strong and gusty outflow winds. Storms will be isolated elsewhere and are not likely to impact KTCS, KDMN, and KLRU. Away from thunderstorms winds will be generally light from the south and southeast. Mid and high level ceilings will become more predominate this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will die off as we head later into the evening. Storm motion today will be to the north or northeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1059 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 We will see a little better chances for rain today and Sunday, but then drier air and lower rain chances return to the region for much of next week. Min RH`s today through Monday will be near or above 20% across the area lowlands with higher percentages in the mountains. Then as we head into the middle of next week the drier air will give us min RH`s in the mid teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area mountains. Each afternoon any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds. Away from the thunderstorms, our winds will stay well below critical levels. Ventilation rates today and Sunday will range from fair to good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 98 74 98 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 65 93 65 94 / 30 20 0 10 Las Cruces 68 96 68 95 / 10 30 20 10 Alamogordo 70 94 67 95 / 20 60 20 20 Cloudcroft 52 72 50 72 / 20 60 30 40 Truth or Consequences 70 95 70 93 / 10 40 50 30 Silver City 63 90 64 87 / 10 30 40 60 Deming 69 98 70 96 / 10 30 40 10 Lordsburg 69 97 71 95 / 10 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 75 97 75 97 / 20 20 20 10 Dell City 70 97 70 98 / 20 30 10 10 Fort Hancock 73 100 73 101 / 30 20 10 10 Loma Linda 68 90 67 91 / 20 30 10 10 Fabens 72 98 72 98 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 96 71 96 / 20 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 73 96 73 95 / 20 30 20 10 Jornada Range 70 96 69 95 / 10 40 20 10 Hatch 70 100 70 98 / 10 30 30 10 Columbus 73 98 73 97 / 10 20 30 10 Orogrande 68 94 68 94 / 20 40 20 10 Mayhill 56 83 55 84 / 20 40 30 30 Mescalero 56 83 54 83 / 20 60 30 50 Timberon 54 81 53 82 / 20 60 10 20 Winston 60 87 59 85 / 10 40 40 60 Hillsboro 67 94 66 92 / 10 40 50 30 Spaceport 68 96 68 94 / 10 40 40 10 Lake Roberts 57 88 57 86 / 10 40 40 80 Hurley 64 92 65 90 / 10 30 50 40 Cliff 66 97 67 95 / 10 30 30 70 Mule Creek 63 93 64 92 / 10 20 20 80 Faywood 66 92 66 90 / 10 40 50 30 Animas 69 97 70 96 / 10 10 30 10 Hachita 69 96 70 95 / 10 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 68 95 69 94 / 10 20 30 10 Cloverdale 65 91 66 90 / 10 20 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen