634
FXUS64 KEPZ 221721
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1121 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Warm and dry through the week with light winds out of the
    southwest.

  - Breezy winds return next weekend, critical fire risk and
    possible blowing dust.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Warm, beautiful April day today under sunny skies and winds out of
the southwest 10 to 15 mph. Lowland highs in the lower-to-mid 80s,
just a few degrees warmer than usual for late April.

Quiet weather pattern this week driven by lighter 500 mb flow and
a consistent southwest direction. Few day-to-day changes in the
forecast through Friday.

One thing to note is the development of the dryline boundary to
our east this week. Southerly surface flow across South Texas will
help better define this moisture boundary in the coming days. We
should see a more consistent diurnal "sloshing" effect with the
boundary seeping westward overnight and pushing back east due to
the southwest BL flow each afternoon. Models are in good agreement
that this moisture will remain to our east through the week. Best
chance for a short-lived moisture intrusion would be Saturday,
given increasing high pressure over the High Plains. Any slim
chances for rain that we had in previous forecasts has all but
evaporated. Current forecast keeps the entire region dry through
the rest of April.

Next Pacific low moves ashore over northern California this
upcoming weekend. Increasing southwest flow will bring the return
of breezy afternoon winds. Currently, Sunday looks to be the
breeziest (20 to 30 mph) timed ahead of an approaching Pacific
cool front. This could be enough for more blowing dust, too.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

P6SM SKC through period. Winds generally west to southwest AOB
12KTS but from 20Z-02Z around KTCS expect more southerly winds of
10-15G20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Elevated fire danger through the week, with very few day-to-day
changes. Light SW winds 10 to 15 mph with Excellent ventilation
this afternoon. Min RH 5 to 10%. Steady but light southwest flow
through the week will keep the area below Red Flag thresholds,
but very dry air will allow ERCs to quickly increase again after
last week`s precipitation and light mountain snow. Next Pacific
low timed for the upcoming weekend, increasing the dry southwest
flow and possibly reintroducing fire headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  55  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  86  55  82 /   0  10  10   0
Las Cruces               49  86  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               46  85  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               37  64  35  63 /   0  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    47  86  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  77  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   44  86  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                44  83  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       54  86  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                45  89  45  87 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             51  90  51  89 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               50  80  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   52  89  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             50  86  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           53  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            39  85  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    47  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 52  87  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                51  87  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  43  77  42  76 /   0  10  10   0
Mescalero                39  75  38  73 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 36  72  35  71 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  35  77  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                46  82  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                40  86  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             26  77  25  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   41  79  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    35  82  33  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               29  79  28  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  43  79  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   44  84  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  44  83  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           46  83  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  78  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz