Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
201
FXUS64 KEPZ 291730
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1130 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026
- Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 108 each
afternoon, with a slight decrease for the weekend.
- Isolated thunderstorms each afternoon through Thursday, mainly
over the high terrain and far western New Mexico. Storms will
be capable of brief heavy rain and localized flash flooding.
- A pattern shift will bring an almost daily chance for showers
and thunderstorms to the lowlands starting Friday with Saturday
currently looking like the most widespread storm coverage.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Dry, stable air over the eastern two-thirds of the CWA and upper
high in NE NM will inhibit storms over the lowlands late this
afternoon and into the evening. A storm or 2 could form over the
Sacs but will have a hard time making it off of them. Looks like a
repeat of yesterday out west where widely scattered to scattered
storms will develop by mid afternoon and move out of the area in
the early evening. Expect another mild night with most lows in the
70s/60s mountains. Little change in the pattern for Thu with high
temps over the lowlands reaching 102-107. NBM temps looked a
degree or two low and did raise up, especially along RGV to line
up with the ongoing Heat Advisory.
Going into Fri, the upper high strengthens as it retrogrades into
eastern AZ. GFS showing near a 600dm high developing. H85 temps
over the lowlands getting into the 36-37C range support highs of
105-110 for most of the lowlands. Thinking the Heat Advisory will
need to be expanded in coverage for Fri afternoon. Again did
raise highs from NBM, closer to the MAV which came in with 109 for
ELP and 106 for LRU. Didn`t go quite that hot at ELP, but it`s
not out of the question. As the upper high shifts west, we start
to get a return of some moisture coming around the ridge.
Thunderstorm chances will spread across most of the area Fri with
generally low scattered coverage for the lowlands going into the
evening. Saturday is looking like the most interesting day with
best moisture and instability around. Scattered lowland to
numerous storm coverage in the mountains is expected. This far
out, I did lower NBM PoPs a little bit from the 80s in the Sacs
and went with 60-70%. With the NE flow and GFS showing LI`s of -4
to -5C over the east, could see a few severe storms. Temperatures
will cool down a little bit here with highs closer to 100 for the
lowlands.
More stable air moves in for Sunday with storm coverage back to
staying out west with temps another couple degrees cooler than
Sat. The upper high weakens over AZ for early next week with daily
disturbances moving around the high and bringing mountain storms
which will push outflows onto the lowlands and isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Temps will start to rebound a bit but look
to stay below advisory criteria.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 with isolated to low end scattered 3-5SM TSRA
developing over far western NM and the Gila region by 20Z and
pushing out of the area by 02Z. Outflow winds of over 30KTS could
affect KDMN and KTCS but storms will stay out of these terminals.
Winds generally east to southeast AOB 12KTS but turning W to SW
from KDMN west after 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026
The next couple of days will be close to the hottest of the summer
as the lowlands will be in the 103-108 range. RH`s will remain
above 10 percent for the lowlands and mainly in the upper teens
and 20s for the mountains. Storm coverage the next couple of days
will be a little less than recent days, but at least isolated
coverage is expected. The upper ridge currently over NM shifts
into AZ by the weekend and brings a return to the pattern similar
to a week or two ago with northeast flow helping storms develop
over the higher terrain and moving onto the lowlands starting
Friday and especially Saturday areawide. Some of these storms will
be capable of locally heavy rain and some gusty winds/hail.
Temperatures will cool down to near 100 for the lowlands by the
weekend with RH`s on the rise. Sunday looks drier before daily
storm chances return for early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 79 105 81 107 / 0 0 10 10
Sierra Blanca 72 101 73 104 / 0 0 10 0
Las Cruces 75 104 76 106 / 0 0 10 0
Alamogordo 72 103 73 105 / 0 10 10 30
Cloudcroft 56 79 58 80 / 10 20 10 60
Truth or Consequences 74 103 75 104 / 0 10 10 10
Silver City 66 96 67 99 / 10 20 10 50
Deming 73 104 74 106 / 0 0 10 0
Lordsburg 73 103 74 104 / 20 10 10 10
West El Paso Metro 78 105 80 107 / 0 0 10 10
Dell City 71 104 72 105 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 76 108 77 109 / 0 0 10 0
Loma Linda 70 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 10
Fabens 76 106 78 107 / 0 0 10 0
Santa Teresa 77 105 78 106 / 0 0 10 10
White Sands HQ 75 105 76 107 / 10 10 10 10
Jornada Range 73 104 74 106 / 10 0 10 10
Hatch 75 104 76 108 / 0 10 10 10
Columbus 76 105 77 107 / 0 0 10 0
Orogrande 71 102 72 105 / 0 0 10 0
Mayhill 60 91 61 91 / 0 20 10 60
Mescalero 62 91 63 92 / 10 20 10 60
Timberon 57 89 58 90 / 0 20 10 50
Winston 63 93 64 94 / 10 30 10 40
Hillsboro 71 100 72 102 / 0 10 10 20
Spaceport 72 104 73 104 / 10 10 10 10
Lake Roberts 58 96 58 97 / 20 30 20 60
Hurley 68 98 69 101 / 10 20 10 40
Cliff 64 102 63 104 / 20 20 20 40
Mule Creek 62 99 61 101 / 10 10 10 30
Faywood 69 98 70 100 / 0 10 10 50
Animas 72 103 73 107 / 20 10 10 0
Hachita 71 102 72 105 / 20 10 10 10
Antelope Wells 69 103 70 106 / 20 10 10 0
Cloverdale 66 96 67 101 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso
County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
County-Western El Paso County.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz