625
FXUS64 KEPZ 231752
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1052 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

  - Mostly dry through the period, with a slight chance of showers
    next weekend in the mountains.

  - The very dry conditions with low humidity will keep fire
    conditions elevated through most of the period.

  - Warmer temperatures next several days with near record high
    temperatures mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Dry conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period
across the Borderland. A weak shortwave this morning over far
northeast Arizona and southern Utah will dive southeastward
bringing some high level clouds into the Borderland, otherwise,
no other sensible weather is expected. Upper ridge over the west
coast this morning will continue to nudge eastward behind the
subtle weak shortwave allowing for temperatures to gradually warm
to rear record values and reaching around 15 degrees above
climatological normals by Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a shortwave
will drop southeast of the Great Basin into the Rockies, the
shortwave will push a backdoor cold front into the Borderland
during the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame and a shot
of cooler air to the Borderland. Both the deterministic GFS and
ECMWF show the backdoor cold front push southwest through the
Borderland on Thursday with both models showing the front clearing
the area by Thursday night . The backdoor front will bring breezy
to low end breezy conditions Thursday into Friday to the
Borderland Temperature on Thursday will be around 5 to 7 degrees
cooler than the previous day but still a couple of degrees above
normal. For Friday, a flat ridge will move into the area bringing
west to southwest flow into the Borderland as upper low over
Northern Baja moves toward the area on Friday night. The upper
level low and trough will move through the region on Saturday with
the track varying some between the GFS and ECMWF.. The GFS
solution shows the low taking a more northern track vs the ECMWF
solution showing the low tracking along the International Border
during the same time frame. With both models, moisture is modest
at best with both models showing a dry slot ahead of the low. For
this forecast package, elected to keep slight chance pops up in
the Gila/Black range on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period, with SKC-SCT250.
Surface winds northwest 6-9 knots becoming mostly southwest AOB 7
knots after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1252 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the period
ahead. Dry conditions will persist through most of the period with
only a slight chance of showers in the Black/Gila range this
weekend. Low humidity values in the single digits will persist
through the Borderland through Wednesday. A backdoor front in the
Wednesday night/Thursday time frame pushes in from the northeast
in the Borderland and sweeping southwest through the area raising
RH values into the lower teens through early next weekend. Light
winds will prevail through Wednesday, then become breezy to low
end windy Wednesday night through Friday, before becoming light
with afternoon breezes next weekend. Vent rates fair to good
today, then poor to fair on Monday, then good to very good Tuesday
and Wednesday. Vent rates will be very good to excellent Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  40  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66  37  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               70  34  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               69  33  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    70  37  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              65  33  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   73  34  78  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                71  35  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                72  32  78  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73  36  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               64  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   72  36  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             70  37  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           71  42  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            70  27  76  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    74  31  80  34 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 73  39  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  32  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  65  32  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                61  29  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 62  27  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  67  25  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                72  35  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                69  28  77  31 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             69  25  75  22 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   69  31  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    71  22  77  21 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               66  16  72  18 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  69  37  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   72  35  79  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  72  34  78  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           72  38  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               68  41  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner