321
FXUS64 KEPZ 230531
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1031 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1020 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

- Dry and mild weather through the middle of next week,
  temperatures expected to warm to well above normal for this
  weekend.

- Occasional breezy conditions this weekend.

- Thanksgiving is looking dry with near normal high temperatures
  in the mid 50s to lower 60s for the lowlands.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Currently have a broad, low amplitude ridge over the central US
which will be pushing east and much of the southern half of the
country ends up in quick westerly flow by the end of the weekend.
Surface winds will be shifting to the west-southwest and allow
temperatures to warm up nicely each afternoon. Looks like solid
70s across the lowlands for the weekend. Record highs for KELP are
in the upper 70s, so could get close, but think we will fall just
a degree or two short. Winds start to pick up Sat, but will remain
in the 10-15 mph range in the afternoon, but Sunday will bring
some low end windy conditions with most areas getting into the
15-25 mph range. The westerly winds will also help keep overnight
lows from dropping off as much as recent days.

By late Sunday and through much of next week, looks like a steady
stream of mid/high clouds crossing the area. The clouds will have
some effect on temperatures with highs dropping 3-6 degrees by Mon
and remaining fairly steady through Wed. Overnight lows will
also be on the mild side with 40s common across the area and some
eastern slope locations possibly staying at or above 50.

Models are in good agreement through Wed, but the latest
operational GFS came in less amplified with a trough moving
through north of the area while the EC remained consistent.
Looking at the ensembles and their means, the EC solution seems
more realistic, so this means a decent cold front will move in for
Thanksgiving. Looking at highs dropping about 5-10 degrees which
means near normal temperatures for late in the week. Moisture
remains north of the area, so precip chances remain near zero. The
only other real impact will be another day of breezy conditions
just ahead of this front on Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with dry
conditions and light winds. Winds will be AOB 6KT out of the NW
tonight shifting southwesterly after 18Z generally remaining AOB
10KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Warm and dry conditions will continue through early next week with
afternoon high temperatures falling just short of records. Very
dry low level air will keep min RH`s in the teens through Sunday
and just a few percent higher early next week. Breezy conditions
will bring some elevated fire weather conditions for Sunday, but
looks like critical conditions would be isolated and mainly on the
eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Vent rates will be
poor to good on Sat, improving to good to very good for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  42  76  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            43  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               36  73  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               34  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               29  54  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    35  71  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              39  68  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   32  76  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                30  75  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       41  73  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                32  76  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             37  78  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               38  67  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   37  76  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             38  72  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           41  72  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            27  71  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    33  75  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 35  76  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                38  73  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  36  71  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                32  64  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 31  63  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  26  67  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                34  74  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                30  70  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             19  69  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   32  70  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    28  72  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               23  71  25  66 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  34  70  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   30  76  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  32  76  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           35  76  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  71  43  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher