Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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442 FXUS64 KEPZ 050514 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1114 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 The next seven days will feature warm to very warm conditions with little to no chance for precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 The calender may say October 4, but the upper air pattern looks much more like something we would see in the summer. The subtropical ridge continues to be anchored over the Desert SW, centered over the AZ/NM state line. The UL high will meander around the Desert SW for the next seven days. This pattern will result in above normal highs with little to no rainfall potential. There are some subtle features that will bring some minor variation to our weather. A weak cold front has pushed through for today. The "cooler" air will settle in for tomorrow lowering highs a few degrees. We warm back up to near record warmth for Sunday before another weak cold front comes through, knocking temperatures back down a few degrees though still well above normal. The second feature possibly of note is a weak easterly wave moving across Mexico. A trough will try and dig over the Pacific Coast at the same time. The GFS and Euro both show moisture being drawn northward off what is left of the easterly wave by mid- week, but ensemble guidance/NBM shows little to no potential of this resulting in precip. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Quiet weather with VFR conditions will continue with SKC. East to southeast winds will remain light at 4-8 knots overnight and into morning, becoming more southerly in direction and remaining under 10 knots after 16Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Conditions will remain dry and warm throughout the period. Some minor improvements are forecast for Saturday with min RH values ranging 14 to 20 percent. Winds will be light. Highs warm for Sunday with a corresponding decrease in min RH values for Sunday, before another weak cold front brings temperatures back down a few degrees. We head into the new work week with above normal temperatures and min RH values in the mid to upper teens. Venting will be poor to fair for Saturday, except in the Gila. Venting improves for Sunday, ranging good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 62 89 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 89 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 87 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 89 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 89 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 87 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 57 89 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 88 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 88 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 87 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 91 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 87 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 46 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 44 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 54 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 52 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 94 49 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 53 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 55 85 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 87 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen