Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
620 FXUS64 KEPZ 201127 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 527 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 505 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Thunderstorm coverage will increase on Sunday as instability recovers across the area. Thunderstorm coverage will be variable with low to mid-end monsoon conditions early next week. - Temperatures will be slightly above normal on Sunday, but will trend closer to normal Monday and Tuesday. - A drying trend looks to be lurking late in the week and into the weekend, and this will be accompanied by warming temperatures again, with low 100s possible in the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows the subtropical ridge centered south of the Florida panhandle, with a weak upper level inverted trough barely noticeable on satellite imagery, with just a weak circulation at 500mb over north Texas. A more obvious TUTT can be seen off the northwestern Gulf coast, sharply noticeable in 200mb streamline patterns. The well-defined TUTT that crossed through Mexico over the past few days is now weakening over the Baja Peninsula, with strongly diffluent flow to its north helping maintain a large MCS over central Sonora, where storms are trying to make a run for the coast north of Guaymas. With Friday night`s convection over SW New Mexico that backed into El Paso, and subsequent widespread light rain much of the night, most of our area was stabilized today, with a predictable sharp downturn in convection coverage, except on the fringes of the CWA, most notably over parts of the Black Range. Two Flood Advisories and a Dust Advisory is the definition of a pretty quiet shift this summer. Right now, some tiny cells are holding on over the Bootheel and in western Luna County. Some spotty convection over the Casas Grandes valley is drifting NW, and a renegade cluster of storms is approaching Samalayuca to our south. Several of the 00Z HREF members suggest the NW Chihuahua activity will drift up towards the Bootheel through the night, and a couple members suggest the isolated activity south of El Paso could flirt with EP and the Lower Valley. I held onto scattered PoPs for the Bootheel, given the better moisture and apparent weak upper level forcing, and nudged in some isolated PoPs across the International border and southern EP county through about 2 AM. Our 00Z sounding had a fair amount of CIN once you mixed out the near-surface superadiabatic layer, but we also have weak outflow drifting south down the Mesilla Valley, so... having a barely mentionable PoP seems wise based on trends. Sunday is a tough call. Mid-level temperatures cool ever so slightly from about -4.5C to -5.5C. 850-500mb moisture will remain focused over Arizona and SW New Mexico. With the TUTT moving into coastal Texas, broad upper level diffluence will overspread our area, but with the main diffluence axis focused over the Big Bend region. Most models limit convection to the periphery of the CWA, favoring the higher terrain across SW New Mexico, but also show good coverage over the higher terrain to our east. The HRRR is a little more generous, particularly in southern Hudspeth County, which is supported by the upper level diffluence and perhaps some outflows coming in from points east. NBM PoPs were far too high, with a nonsensical diurnal trend seemingly peaking at Noon with widespread 70+ PoPs across the Gila. Basically went with 50-70 PoPs across the west, highest in the upper elevations and the Bootheel, with 50-60 PoPs in the Sacramento Mountains, 30-40s in southern Hudspeth, and 20s across most of central lowlands where instability will be most limited, but with scattered PoPs expanding into Luna County in the evening as outflows should be able to trigger a few more storms out that way. Went with coverage qualifiers instead of probability. On Monday, the TUTT will be east of Del Rio, with diffluent flow remaining over the area. A weak, possibly convectively-induced shortwave trough in the mid-levels looks to drift up towards ELP, with 500 mb temps cooling to around -7C. Instability overall improves, except over western NM where westerly low level flow looks to drop dewpoints into the 40s. There`s a disturbing amount of model divergence here. The NAM, for example is weaker with the mid-level disturbance, and washes out the cold pool aloft by afternoon. It also brings low level dry air deeper into the CWA from the west, with essentially no instability north and west of ELP. The HRRR hints at this as well. Went with lower-end scattered PoPs early in the Gila, more terrain-depende terrain areas and lowlands west of the Rio Grande. nt than usual, with slight chance PoPs in the NM desert lowlands, and higher PoPs across the Sacramentos and east of ELP. The GFS and the NAM both deepen the mid-level disturbance and bring it north Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS blows up late night convection across the Borderland, while the NAM is dry and stable. This sets up for a confusing Tuesday with high PWATs of 1.25 to 1.50 inches, deep moisture especially across our southern counties, but fairly modest instability. If overnight convection does occur Monday night, it`ll probably result in a down day across the lowlands Tuesday despite the high moisture content, with better chances in the Gila and Sacramento Mountains. If Monday night is calmer, Tuesday should be a little more unstable, with precip chances more spread-out. Longer range trends all point towards a break late week, as troughing off California directs drier SW flow aloft into the area, the subtropics having been cut off by the subtropical ridge axis dropping south over Mexico and extending across Baja California. Best chances Tuesday will be across the Sacramento Mountains, with a continued drying trend lasting into the weekend as both the GFS and ECMWF drift the subtropical ridge right over us again. Luckily, the deterministic GFS is on the very dry side of the GFS ensemble guidance in terms of PWAT, and the ensemble mean barely dips below 1 inch at ELP. But the deterministic GFS is ugly, with PWATs Saturday afternoon dropping to around 0.40 inches, and surface dewpoints in the 20s. But even the bone-dry GFS brings easterlies back as the ridge drifts north Sunday and Monday, and has a strong TUTT moving into south Texas early next week, with low level SE flow bringing more seasonal dewpoints back into the area. So, even the worst case scenario just looks like a cyclical monsoon break. And again, despite the ECMWF and GFS agreeing well in terms of the upper level pattern towards the weekend, the ensembles show more spread. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies will be FEW to SCT at 6-12 kft, becoming SKC to FEW at 15-20 kft by mid morning. Showers and storms will develop over the high terrain will FEW to SCT ~10 kft CU development over the lowlands after 18Z. ISO TS/SH will be possible over the lowlands after 21Z with outflow boundary interactions. PROB30s for thunder are being carried for KDMN and KLRU were confidence is slightly higher. Confidence for KELP is still to low for my liking for any TS mention, with AMENDs in TAF if needed this afternoon/evening. Prevailing winds will be generally S/SW at 5-10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 505 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Sufficient moisture remains in place across the area through the period (next 3-4 days) with daily chances of showers/storms. The greatest focus for activity will be over the mountains and areas west of the Divide this afternoon and evening. Coverage in activity overspreads the entire forecast area on Monday and Tuesday. Again, the primary threats will be gusty/erratic outflow winds, moderate to heavy rain/flash flooding, and frequent lightning. If storms develop in the vicinity of burn scars, flash flooding will pose a threat. Min RH values will be above critical thresholds areawide through Wednesday, becoming drier from west to east Thursday and Friday. Winds will be generally light at 7-15 mph each afternoon. However, gust and erratic outflow winds will be likely in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Temperatures remain seasonal through the middle of next week, becoming warmer Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 76 97 72 / 20 20 20 40 Sierra Blanca 93 68 91 65 / 50 50 60 60 Las Cruces 95 69 94 68 / 20 20 20 30 Alamogordo 96 71 94 67 / 30 30 30 30 Cloudcroft 74 52 72 51 / 60 30 70 50 Truth or Consequences 94 70 94 68 / 30 30 40 20 Silver City 87 62 86 62 / 50 40 40 20 Deming 97 70 96 68 / 30 40 20 20 Lordsburg 92 67 91 67 / 40 50 30 30 West El Paso Metro 97 74 95 71 / 20 30 20 40 Dell City 98 72 96 68 / 30 40 40 50 Fort Hancock 99 75 97 72 / 40 50 60 50 Loma Linda 91 68 89 64 / 20 30 40 40 Fabens 98 73 96 70 / 40 40 30 40 Santa Teresa 96 73 94 69 / 20 30 20 40 White Sands HQ 97 74 96 71 / 30 30 30 30 Jornada Range 95 70 95 68 / 20 30 30 20 Hatch 98 70 97 68 / 30 30 30 20 Columbus 96 72 95 70 / 30 40 20 30 Orogrande 94 70 93 67 / 20 30 30 30 Mayhill 84 58 82 57 / 50 30 70 50 Mescalero 84 57 83 56 / 50 30 70 50 Timberon 81 56 80 53 / 50 30 50 40 Winston 85 58 86 58 / 70 40 60 20 Hillsboro 93 65 93 63 / 30 30 40 20 Spaceport 94 67 94 65 / 30 30 30 20 Lake Roberts 87 57 87 57 / 60 40 50 20 Hurley 89 64 89 63 / 30 30 30 20 Cliff 94 65 93 66 / 50 40 40 20 Mule Creek 89 62 89 63 / 50 30 40 20 Faywood 89 64 89 63 / 30 40 40 20 Animas 92 68 91 68 / 50 50 40 30 Hachita 91 68 91 66 / 40 50 20 30 Antelope Wells 89 65 89 66 / 60 60 40 50 Cloverdale 83 62 83 62 / 60 60 50 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers