Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
640 FXUS64 KEPZ 041122 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 453 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Warm and dry weather into early next week. High temperatures around 5-7 degrees above normal through Tuesday. - Breezy conditions Saturday. - Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Late summer-like temperatures continue this early October as a ridge of high pressure persists over northern Mexico, while a Pacific trough moves inland over the Great Basin by Saturday. These two features are working in tandem to draw up mostly warm and dry air with southwest flow aloft. Thus unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend into early next week. As models have been showing, this broad southwest flow was able to draw high level moisture (above 400mb) from TS Octave over eastern Arizona and western New Mexico today. It did allow CU buildups today over southwest New Mexico but appears no rain was able to develop from these clouds. This thin, tropical plume will continue east overnight, reaching the eastern CWA Saturday afternoon. Again, this likely will help some CU development but rain is expected. The southwest flow aloft will help create decent lee-side low eastern Colorado, allowing breezy winds to develop Saturday afternoon. Broad southwest flow aloft will continue into Monday. Expect more dry weather Sunday/Monday with high temps continuing around 5-7 degrees above normal. By late Monday and moreso on Tuesday, the influence of tropical feature Priscilla will begin to be felt over our area. While she will contribute little, if any moisture initially, she is able build up sub-tropical ridge from the northern Gulf of America across northern Mexico. This will allow some sub-tropical moisture over northern Mexico and even the Gulf of America, to advect in as mid-level flow turns more south/southwest. Thus chances of rain will start again in the forecast, if not Monday night, then Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF are pretty similar through Thursday, though the ECMWF does not advect as much moisture up. Both models show upper ridge building over/near the CWA Thursday through Saturday for drier weather. If you want to look way out, the GFS is advertising a sort of "monsoon renaissance" as days 9-10 show more tropical moisture streaming up with what would be tropical feature Raymond. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies generally SKC to FEW through the morning. Winds light and VRB will become southwest at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots this afternoon. Skies in the afternoon will be FEW to SCT at 20-25kft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 453 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Warm and dry weather conditions continue for today with temperatures slightly above average and Min RH values between 17 to 25 percent across most of the areas, above 30 for NM zone 113. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon with winds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible. Smoke ventilation rates this afternoon will be very good to excellent area wide. Very similar min RHs expected Sunday afternoon but 20 foot wind speeds will be lowered (generally 5-10 mph but isolated locations could see 15 mph winds over the eastern portions of the Black Range. Min RHs will be 20-30% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the mountains Monday with dry conditions and light afternoon breezes. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday which increases min RHs both days to 25-35% in the lowlands and 50-65% in the mountains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 90 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 86 59 87 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 85 61 87 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 63 45 64 / 10 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 54 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 88 62 89 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 91 67 93 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 80 61 82 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 65 89 65 91 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 62 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 59 84 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 20 Mescalero 49 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 20 Timberon 47 72 49 72 / 10 0 0 20 Winston 43 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 52 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers