Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
400
FXUS64 KEPZ 220420
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1020 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1019 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms area wide tonight, Tuesday,
and to a lesser degree, Wednesday. Storms will be capable of
heavy rain and flash flooding.
- Warmer and drier weather pattern beginning Thursday into this
weekend. Isolated storms over mountains and mostly dry for the
lowlands with highs 95-102.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1019 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025
WV imagery shows TUTT low persisting over central Texas
undercutting SE U.S. upper high, which is draped over the northern
and western perimeter of the TUTT low. Plenty of residual tropical
moisture remaining over the CWA. Satellite imagery also showed
MCV hanging out over Sierra County most of this afternoon and
evening, and that should be drifting north out of the CWA
overnight. Most of the convection is over this evening, other than
some isolated storms over southern Hudspeth and western Otero
Counties. These storms should be done within the next hour to two,
although some isolated showers may continue through most of the
night.
Tuesday and Wednesday...monsoon moisture remains in place Tuesday,
with PWs as high or higher than today (1.00-1.30 inches). Models
continue to show weak upper disturbances in the flow moving north
across the CWA. Hence expect one more active day. Actually today
was a bit quieter than Sunday, possibly due to overworked
atmosphere and low level stability caused by Sunday night/Monday
morning rainfall. Tuesday will not have to confront those issues.
Hence, a Flood Watch will continue for the mountain zones for
Tuesday. Moisture begins to retreat some on Wednesday as mid/upper
level flow turns a bit more southwest and transports some drier
eastern Pacific/NW Mexico air in. Thus, Wednesday becomes a
transition day to significantly drier airmass for the weekend.
Decent rain chances still on Wednesday. These two days will also
be the last of a series of cooler than normal days.
Thursday through the weekend...Thursday through Saturday will be
the driest of the forecast period with PWs gradually dropping
below one inch and mid-level ridge building back over the CWA
from the east. Thus, expect isolated thunderstorms, mainly over
the mountains. Temperatures will climb back above normal, and the
lowlands should see more triple digit high temps. By Sunday, the
ridge begins to lift north and easterlies develop over the CWA
below the ridge. This will increase PWs back above normal. Only
expect slight uptick in storms Sunday and Monday, but at least
all areas should see a slight chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025
SCT100 BKN-OVC250. A few BKN060CB 6SM -TSRA over Hudspeth County
should dissipate shortly. An isolated light shower could occur
into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise expect convection to develop
again Tuesday afternoon (18Z), first over the mountains, and then
by late afternoon (22Z) developing over the lowlands...with
BKN060CB 3-5SM TSRA. Pea-size hail and wind gusts of 25-35 knots
are possible with some storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025
High levels of atmospheric moisture present today and tomorrow as
storm coverage increases area wide. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding of
mountain canyons and creeks. Strong, erratic wind gusts
associated with outflow boundaries and cloud-to-ground lightning
will be a secondary threat. Rain showers will linger into the
overnight hours. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph today leading to Good
ventilation. Min RH 30-40%.
Conditions begin to dry out Thursday into the weekend with much
lower (10-20%) coverage over mountains. Min RH levels will remain
above critical thresholds through Wednesday but begin to fall
below 20% across western NM and GNF later this week, leading to
low-end Elevated fire danger. Surface winds remaining light
outside of thunderstorm outflows.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 90 71 93 / 40 50 50 10
Sierra Blanca 65 85 63 86 / 50 70 60 30
Las Cruces 68 87 65 90 / 50 60 40 20
Alamogordo 68 87 65 88 / 30 60 50 30
Cloudcroft 50 67 48 67 / 20 70 40 60
Truth or Consequences 68 85 66 88 / 50 70 50 40
Silver City 61 80 58 81 / 50 80 60 50
Deming 69 88 65 91 / 50 60 50 20
Lordsburg 67 86 65 88 / 50 80 50 30
West El Paso Metro 71 88 69 91 / 40 50 50 10
Dell City 69 91 68 91 / 30 40 40 10
Fort Hancock 72 91 70 93 / 60 70 70 30
Loma Linda 64 82 63 84 / 40 50 50 20
Fabens 71 89 69 91 / 40 50 60 10
Santa Teresa 69 87 67 90 / 40 50 50 10
White Sands HQ 71 88 69 91 / 40 60 50 20
Jornada Range 68 86 66 88 / 50 70 50 30
Hatch 68 89 66 91 / 50 70 50 30
Columbus 69 88 68 91 / 50 50 50 10
Orogrande 67 85 65 87 / 30 60 50 20
Mayhill 56 78 55 78 / 20 70 50 60
Mescalero 55 77 53 78 / 20 70 50 60
Timberon 53 74 51 75 / 20 70 50 50
Winston 57 77 56 78 / 60 80 60 60
Hillsboro 63 84 61 86 / 60 80 50 40
Spaceport 65 85 64 88 / 40 70 50 40
Lake Roberts 57 81 55 82 / 60 90 60 60
Hurley 63 83 61 85 / 50 80 50 40
Cliff 64 87 62 88 / 50 80 60 50
Mule Creek 62 83 59 83 / 40 80 60 40
Faywood 63 83 61 84 / 50 80 50 40
Animas 66 85 64 88 / 60 80 60 20
Hachita 66 84 64 88 / 50 70 50 20
Antelope Wells 64 83 62 88 / 70 70 60 20
Cloverdale 61 78 61 83 / 60 70 60 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
Below 7500 Feet.
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner