Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
225 FXUS64 KEPZ 020436 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1036 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 955 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, favoring area mountains. Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Hotter and much drier next week as high pressure aloft cuts off the flow of monsoon moisture and suppresses thunderstorm development. Lowland high temperatures will reach triple digits each afternoon through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure aloft, centered over the state, will dominate the local area weather pattern through next week with hotter temperatures and dry conditions. In the near term, enough residual moisture remains in the area for another day of isolated lowland and scattered mountain thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be over the mountain regions and will be capable of producing periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, strong wind gusts. For Sunday and for most of next week, the dome of high pressure aloft will strengthen and shut off the flow of moisture to the region. Model ensembles indicate that precipitable water values will fall well below seasonal normals, indicative of drier air moving into the region. Thunderstorm development will be largely suppressed under the stable and dry conditions, but cannot completely rule out a brief stray storm developing over higher terrain during peak heating in the afternoon. Along with drier conditions will be significantly hotter temperatures across the region for this weekend and all of next week. Afternoon temperatures over most of the lowlands of southern New Mexico and far west Texas will exceed 100 degrees beginning Sunday and will continue through at least next Friday. Temperatures in the El Paso metro area and lower Rio Grande valley have a high chance of exceeding 105 degrees each day next week. Heat risk categories for much of the lowlands will be in major to extreme categories next week. For the long term outlook, small relief from the hot temperatures may come late next week into next weekend as the high aloft weakens somewhat and temperatures drop a few degrees. Chances for rain and thunderstorms will also slightly increase late next week with a minor intrusion of moisture into the region. Any storms that do develop will be mostly limited to the higher mountain regions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 VFR conditions and mostly clear skies for the rest of tonight and into tomorrow morning. Isolated convection and storms will develop after 17Z mostly over the mountains of the Gila Region, Sac Mountains, Bootheel, and Hudspeth County. Thunderstorm activity should dissipate by 04z in Saturday evening. Terminals should remain mostly clear and storm free. KTCS may have an isolated storm in the Saturday afternoon period. Winds will remain light overnight and will become southeasterly in the morning but remain under 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered mtn storms develop today and tomorrow during the afternoon hours as moisture levels stay near normal. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable. Overnight recoveries will be good through Saturday night. Drier air arrives on Sunday from the northwest around the upper high, largely ending storm chances for a few days, even in the mountains. Dry and hot conditions are forecast for next week with little to no chance of storms, deep mixing, and light winds. Min RHs drop to 20-35% on Saturday; then 8-15% by Monday and 15-25% in FWZ 113. Vent rates will be poor to good through Saturday, then good to excellent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 97 75 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 91 67 94 68 / 20 20 20 10 Las Cruces 92 69 96 70 / 10 10 10 10 Alamogordo 93 70 96 72 / 30 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 68 50 73 53 / 50 20 30 20 Truth or Consequences 90 69 95 70 / 30 30 20 10 Silver City 86 64 90 64 / 50 40 30 20 Deming 94 69 99 70 / 10 10 10 10 Lordsburg 94 70 98 70 / 30 20 10 10 West El Paso Metro 94 75 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 Dell City 93 70 97 72 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 97 73 99 75 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 87 68 91 70 / 20 10 10 10 Fabens 95 72 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 93 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 93 73 97 75 / 20 10 10 10 Jornada Range 91 69 95 71 / 20 10 10 10 Hatch 94 69 98 70 / 20 20 10 10 Columbus 94 71 98 72 / 10 10 10 10 Orogrande 91 69 94 71 / 20 10 10 10 Mayhill 79 55 83 59 / 50 20 30 20 Mescalero 80 56 84 59 / 50 20 30 20 Timberon 77 56 80 57 / 40 10 20 10 Winston 83 58 87 58 / 60 40 40 20 Hillsboro 89 64 94 64 / 40 30 20 20 Spaceport 90 67 95 68 / 20 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 86 58 90 59 / 70 40 40 20 Hurley 88 65 93 65 / 40 30 20 20 Cliff 94 66 98 67 / 50 30 20 20 Mule Creek 90 63 94 64 / 50 30 10 10 Faywood 87 66 91 66 / 40 30 20 20 Animas 94 69 98 70 / 20 20 10 10 Hachita 92 68 96 68 / 20 20 10 10 Antelope Wells 92 68 96 69 / 20 20 10 10 Cloverdale 89 68 93 67 / 30 30 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen