189
FXUS64 KEPZ 072334
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
534 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Hot conditions continue Sunday and Monday with Sunday being
    the hottest day of the week

 -  Slight cool down on Tuesday and Wednesday due to increasing
    rain chances, temperatures back into the 90s

 -  Rain chances increase for the Sacramento Mountains and areas
    east of the Rio Grande for Tuesday with a few lingering storms
    for Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Building high pressure to the south with dry southwesterly flow
over the area will bring very warm temperatures tomorrow and even
into Monday. Sunday continues to be the hottest day of the
forecast period where highs in the desert lowlands will be in the
U-90s to 106F. A heat advisory is in effect for El Paso and the
lower valley tomorrow as temperatures will be 102-106F in El Paso
while the lower valley will reach temperatures of 105-107F.

By Sunday night and early Monday, a backdoor front will try to
push into the area Monday morning but does not seem to reach fully
across the area. This front does knock high temperatures down on
Monday most noticeably for Otero and Hudspeth counties as they can
expect a 4-8 degree drop in high temps Monday. More importantly,
this front will shove in some moisture to the area. Dewpoints look
to be anywhere from 40-55 degrees. In addition, there`s a
shortwave that will cross over the desert SW Monday and by
Tuesday, the low is over the area. T-storm chances exist for the
Sacramento Mtns, portions of Otero, Sierra, and Hudspeth county
Monday afternoon. Tuesday will be the best shot for rain with the
added upper low over the area. Monday night and Tuesday morning
moisture will push in further west compared to Monday. It looks
like the moisture reaches at least the Rio Grande Valley, but the
NAM has 55 degree dewpoints stretching as far west as the eastern
AZ border. Isolated t-storm chances will span from the Gila
region, east of Las Cruces, and east of El Paso county with
scattered to numerous t-storms in the Sacramento Mtns. If moisture
is able to extend further westward, t-storm coverage will
increase and vice versa. Instability will be 1000-1500J/kg which
will certainly help make some of these storms quite strong.

By Wednesday, the Borderland has lingering energy from the
aforementioned upper low which will continue some lingering
storms to the area mountains and east of the RGV Wednesday
afternoon. Even lesser coverage expected Thursday, just some
isolated chances in the area mountains that afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions expected through period with SKC-SCT250. Surface
winds west 10-14G24 knots becoming variable AOB 7 knots after 03Z.
Winds then increasing again after 18Z Sunday to west 10-15G25
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Dry and hot conditions expected tomorrow and Monday. Min RH values
will be 3-8% in the lowlands and 10-12% in the Sacramento Mtns
tomorrow. Expect very similar min RH values Monday, but
thunderstorm chances in the Sacramento Mtns could raise min RH
values above critical thresholds but single digits remain
elsewhere. The best chances for rain will be in the Sacramento
Mtns Tuesday but isolated to scattered coverage in the Gila,
north and east of Las Cruces, and east of El Paso. Lingering
thunderstorm chances Wednesday can be expected in the same
general area as Tuesday but lesser coverage. Drier conditions
towards the end of the week. Critical min RHs expected everywhere
each day where precipitation chances are not expected to occur.
Our saving grace will be the light afternoon breezes each day
(5-15 mph) and light drainage winds overnight. Ventilation rates
will be good to excellent each day except tomorrow and Thursday
where rates will be excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72 105  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65 100  63  96 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               64  99  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               64  99  62  97 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               52  78  49  74 /   0   0   0  30
Truth or Consequences    67 100  67  96 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              59  91  58  90 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   62 101  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                61  97  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71 101  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                64 104  62  97 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             69 107  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               69  96  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   68 104  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             66  99  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           74 101  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            62 100  61  97 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    62 102  61  99 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 68 101  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                65  99  64  95 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  56  91  51  81 /   0   0   0  40
Mescalero                56  88  52  84 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                 55  86  52  82 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                  53  91  53  87 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro                63  99  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                60  99  60  96 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             54  93  54  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   58  94  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    57  97  57  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  92  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  94  60  93 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   63  98  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  62  98  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           63  99  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  93  62  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner