Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
790 FXUS64 KEPZ 142327 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 427 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Dry and warm conditions again on Saturday. - Pacific low brings breezy southwest winds area wide and slight rain chances across western New Mexico on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures next week behind a Pacific cold front, with precipitation chances increasing midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1032 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 High pressure aloft, across the SW starts the forecast cycle, with fair, benign, and mild conditions across the forecast area. Plenty of dry air will mean plenty of clear skies and no precip chances through the weekend, for most areas (Gila may be the exception). Winds light tonight and Saturday, before increasing to breezy for Sunday. Temperatures will continue warmer than average today through Sunday, with slight cooling each day. Nights will be cool, with the dry air, clear skies, and light winds allowing for strong radiational nighttime cooling, and strong isolation each day. Sunday, the next Pac low pressure storm system lifts across SCAL, and into AZ. The trajectory is such that most of the dynamics and associated moisture will lift NE into the Great Basin/Central Rockies, and barely clip our region. As such, really, only the mountains across the Gila region show any mentionable chances at any precipitation for Sunday afternoon and evening. Snow levels will be at or above 8500-9000ft MSL, with snow amounts light and spotty. Thus impacts very minimal. Of note on Sunday afternoon, for the broader area, will be a response to the approaching trough, in the form of breezy to marginally windy afternoon conditions. We will be watching the Lordsburg Playa for dust Sunday afternoon. Generally, winds look to be SW sustained 15 to 20 mph with gusts 30+ mph. That is enough to raise dust. A Pacific front pushes east across the area to cool the region further on Sunday. Temperatures should drop closer to normal, but still remain a few degrees above. Monday, we will be between Pacific systems, with a cool-ish fair-weather day, with west winds slackening. Tuesday the next Pacific storm system looks to track across SCAL and into Central AZ. We will begin to see increasing clouds, and even potential for later day precip over our western zones. Previous model runs were in big disagreement on timing/phase/ location, of subsequent storms, but the current 12z runs are in much better unison, allowing for better confidence in the forecast Tuesday onward of next week. Next Wednesday, the next system should be passing across our region, with cloudy and cool conditions and mentionable chances for lowland rain and mountain snow showers. The models exit this progressive storm Thursday, with precip ending west to east early to mid day. Current models suggest fair weather FRI-SUN, as a transitory short wave ridge rides across the region, with yet another Pacific low slowly tracking in for early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Light and variable surface winds tonight, generally 000-030 AOB 5 knots at KELP. Skies clear. Southwest flow increasing slightly Saturday afternoon, becoming 230-260 at 05 to 10 knots. A few gusts to 20 knots possible mid-afternoon. Skies FEW-SCT200 after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1032 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 High pressure over the region keeps conditions conducive for fall burning with above normal temperatures, low RH, and light winds, despite low ventilation across the region. The upper ridge will be slowly shifting east through the weekend as the next Pacific low pressure storm system approaches. Today will be the warmest day for quite a while. Temperatures will continue warm Saturday, but begin dipping a bit day to day, through the weekend. RH will be low again Saturday, and then start to climb as the next trough arrives with a Pacific cool front Sunday. Winds will be light again tonight and Saturday, before becoming breezy to marginally windy on Sunday as the trough begins to move over and influence our weather. Most of the region will remain dry with this first low pressure storm system, but the Gila high country could see some light and spotty rain, and high mountain snow showers Sunday. Cooler and dry Monday, with the system exiting, and winds beginning to slacken. RH will be somewhat elevated with the cooler conditions. Wind will be westerly. Tue and Wed of next week, the next Pacific storm system approaches and passes. cooler conditions, with more clouds and moisture. Precipitation chances far west on TUE, and all areas on WED. Mostly rain, with snow above 9000ft. Neither amounts look like a lot. The storm system exits Thursday, with precip ending west to east in the midday period. Friday through Sunday looks fair, with a shortwave ridge back over the region. Dry conditions, seasonal temperatures, more sun, lighter winds, RH staying up in the 30% range for MINs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 81 54 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 79 48 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 78 47 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 79 46 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 61 38 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 76 48 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 71 45 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 80 46 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 76 47 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 79 54 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 83 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 85 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 74 50 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 82 50 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 79 48 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 80 55 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 79 45 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 81 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 81 50 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 77 45 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 74 43 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 71 40 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 68 39 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 71 38 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 77 47 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 78 43 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 71 40 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 74 43 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 76 44 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 71 44 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 73 46 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 77 48 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 77 47 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 78 47 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 69 48 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt