Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
401 FXUS64 KEPZ 021125 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 525 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 503 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, favoring area mountains. Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Hotter and much drier next week as high pressure aloft cuts off the flow of monsoon moisture and suppresses thunderstorm development. Lowland high temperatures will reach triple digits each afternoon through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure aloft, centered over the state, will dominate the local area weather pattern through next week with hotter temperatures and dry conditions. In the near term, enough residual moisture remains in the area for another day of isolated lowland and scattered mountain thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be over the mountain regions and will be capable of producing periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, strong wind gusts. For Sunday and for most of next week, the dome of high pressure aloft will strengthen and shut off the flow of moisture to the region. Model ensembles indicate that precipitable water values will fall well below seasonal normals, indicative of drier air moving into the region. Thunderstorm development will be largely suppressed under the stable and dry conditions, but cannot completely rule out a brief stray storm developing over higher terrain during peak heating in the afternoon. Along with drier conditions will be significantly hotter temperatures across the region for this weekend and all of next week. Afternoon temperatures over most of the lowlands of southern New Mexico and far west Texas will exceed 100 degrees beginning Sunday and will continue through at least next Friday. Temperatures in the El Paso metro area and lower Rio Grande valley have a high chance of exceeding 105 degrees each day next week. Heat risk categories for much of the lowlands will be in major to extreme categories next week. For the long term outlook, small relief from the hot temperatures may come late next week into next weekend as the high aloft weakens somewhat and temperatures drop a few degrees. Chances for rain and thunderstorms will also slightly increase late next week with a minor intrusion of moisture into the region. Any storms that do develop will be mostly limited to the higher mountain regions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 VFR conditions with SKC to FEW skies through the morning. Wind shift occur at KELP between 12-13Z with winds becoming NE at 8-12 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots. Winds behind the outflow boundary will be VRB at 5 knots ~15Z. Prevailing winds through the afternoon will be S/SW at 5-10 knots. Skies will become SCT-BKN at 10-15 kft with afternoon CU development. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 503 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the period. High pressure aloft will continue to build in across the Desert SW through the weekend and next week, promoting the return of drier air and hot temperatures across the local area. For today, the aforementioned upper level high will build over AZ and NM. However, remnant monsoonal moisture will remain across the area through the day with DP temps in the low 50s and PW values above 1 inch. This will ultimately foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across NMZ110 and NMZ113 this afternoon. Associated outflow boundaries will propogate over the desert lowlands with and isolated storm or two. With high pressure aloft, it will be difficult for convection over the lowlands. Min RH values this afternoon will continue it`s trend downward, dropping 5-10 percent from yesterday`s Min RH values. Outside afternoon convection over the mountains, prevailing winds will be generally light and variable through the day. By sunday, with high pressure strengthening over SW NM and SE AZ, flow aloft will become N to NEerly, advecting in a drier continental air pushing monsoon moisture south and east. Storm chances will further decrease with isolated activity over the mountains, generally due to heating and orographics. Min RH values will continue to drop with values between 8-15 percent for areas along and west of the RGV, slightly higher for areas east. High temperatures will become 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average. With high pressure aloft, winds will remain light and variable, or terrain and drainage driven. High pressure strengthens further and anchors over the Desert SW next with continued dry and hot conditions with light winds each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 77 104 75 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 94 68 97 70 / 20 10 10 10 Las Cruces 96 70 99 68 / 10 10 0 10 Alamogordo 96 72 99 70 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 73 53 76 54 / 30 20 10 0 Truth or Consequences 95 70 99 67 / 20 10 0 0 Silver City 90 64 93 63 / 30 20 10 0 Deming 99 70 103 66 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 98 70 100 66 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 97 76 100 73 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 97 72 101 70 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 99 75 103 75 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 91 70 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 98 74 102 72 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 96 73 99 71 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 97 75 100 73 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 95 71 98 67 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 98 70 102 67 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 98 72 102 70 / 10 10 0 10 Orogrande 94 71 98 70 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 83 59 87 58 / 30 20 10 0 Mescalero 84 59 87 58 / 30 20 10 0 Timberon 80 57 85 59 / 20 10 10 0 Winston 87 58 91 56 / 40 20 10 0 Hillsboro 94 64 98 65 / 20 20 10 0 Spaceport 95 68 98 65 / 20 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 90 59 93 57 / 40 20 10 0 Hurley 93 65 96 64 / 20 20 10 0 Cliff 98 67 100 62 / 20 20 0 0 Mule Creek 94 64 96 61 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 91 66 95 65 / 20 20 0 0 Animas 98 70 100 66 / 10 10 0 10 Hachita 96 68 99 65 / 10 10 0 10 Antelope Wells 96 69 99 66 / 10 10 10 10 Cloverdale 93 67 94 65 / 20 20 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers