Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
905 FXUS64 KEPZ 071130 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 430 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 423 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 - Near record warmth will continue for Friday and Saturday with dry weather and mostly light winds. - A cold front arrives on Sunday, bringing much cooler temperatures and gusty east winds. - Still no rain chances in the forecast through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1018 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025 Little to no changes from previous forecast packages with dry weather and above average temperatures through Saturday. Then a fairly stout backdoor cold front pushes through late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, ushering in colder temperatures and breezy winds. For Friday and Saturday, quiet and fair weather conditions will prevail with no weather impacts. Temperatures each afternoon will be 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees across the desert lowlands. Winds will be light and variable with mostly sunny skies. Late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, an upper level system racing across the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest will push a cold front south across the Great Plains before moving east to west across the local area. Model and ensemble guidance, with consistent confidence, has the backdoor cold front moving through late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning. There will be noticeable sensible weather changes after frontal passage with colder temperatures and breezy to windy conditions on Sunday. Temperature-wise, highs on Sunday will be 10-20 degrees colder than Saturday, topping out in the low 60s across the desert lowlands. The cold front will also induce windy conditions on Sunday. NBM model guidance shows Medium to High (60-90% chance) confidence that maximum wind gusts will be greater than 30 mph for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor and all of west TX. Low to Medium (10-40% chance) confidence for maximum winds greater than 40 mph for portions of west TX and northern half of Hidalgo County. With these backdoor cold fronts, the strongest winds will be felt along the western slopes of area mountains. That said, if you heading out to church, Sunday morning brunch, or plan on going to the Upper Valley Artist & Farmers Market, be mindful of the gusty winds and colder temperatures. The aforementioned gusty winds will gradually diminish during the late afternoon and evening hours. Light winds will resume early Monday morning, promoting chilly morning temperatures to start the work week. Morning low temperatures across the desert lowlands will fall into 30s, with Low (20-30% chances) confidence that portions of the lowlands will drop below freezing. Temperatures for the El Paso metro will hover around 40 degrees. High temperatures on Monday will top out in the middle 60s. Benign upper level weather pattern will takeover the remainder of the work week with temperatures back to or slightly above the seasonal average and light afternoon breezes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period with SKC-FEW250. Winds be light, under 10 knots, from the west or southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 Dry and warm conditions continue to today with highs well above normal while minimum RH values drop well into the teens in the lowlands. Winds will be light with speeds less than 10 MPH. Venting will be poor to fair with the light winds. Saturday will see similar conditions to Friday before a cold front arrives early Sunday morning. Temperatures will cool 10 to 15 degrees, which will keep min RH values in the 20s. West slope areas will be breezy to windy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 80 49 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 76 42 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 77 43 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 77 41 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 57 26 41 24 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 75 43 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 72 42 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 80 44 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 75 46 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 78 50 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 81 41 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 83 48 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 43 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 81 48 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 77 47 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 48 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 77 41 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 80 41 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 81 48 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 75 44 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 70 28 48 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 68 30 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 67 29 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 72 33 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 76 43 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 76 38 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 73 36 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 75 41 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 78 41 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 74 40 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 74 45 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 78 46 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 77 44 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 78 44 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 72 47 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown