Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
463 FXUS64 KEPZ 251130 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Warming and mainly dry weather through Saturday with isolated storms favoring the Sacramento mountains and eastern areas. - Moisture starts to increase Sunday through Tuesday with more widespread thunderstorm activity. - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday as a monsoonal plume sets up over the area. Increased moisture will allow temperatures to fall below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Moisture plume still over much of the area, though thinner than Wednesday. Also dry intrusion from the west has made it to about Deming late this evening. Deming west currently shows dewpoints upper 20s to lower 30s and PWs as low as one-half inch. To the east dewpoints remain in the 50s, with PWs from .75 to 1.00 inches. This basic pattern will hold for Friday/Saturday, with the chance of thunderstorms limited to Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Temperatures will warm back above normal both days with the lowlands seeing some triple digits again. Sunday and beyond still seeing a moistening up as Bermuda high ridge is forced north of the CWA as inverted trough moves west over northern Mexico. This creates and east/southeast flow which brings sub-tropical weather back into the area. GFS a bit faster than the ECMWF, suggesting the plume is already more concentrated over the western CWA by Monday and Tuesday. Regardless, the 50s dewpoints return along with PWs of 1.0-1.2 inches. Relatively high rain chances all areas, though will have to see if models continue to favor the western half of the CWA by Tuesday. Needless to say, flood potential will also increase during this period. By Thursday the monsoon high builds in over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. This likely will limit any chances of rain to just west of the Cont Divide. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 VMC through forecast period under light southwest flow aloft. Skies beginning SKC-FEW150 this morning, then FEW-SCT110 and isolated CB over central NM mountains. Very minimal storms coverage this evening. Surface winds 220-250 at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with weak TS outflows shifting KELP to the SE after 02Z tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 500 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over LNF, mostly along the eastern slopes. GNF should remain dry with Very Good ventilation. Much drier conditions across western New Mexico today with min RH 10-20% and Elevated fire danger. Light southwest flow will be well below critical thresholds, generally less than 10 mph. Dry conditions again on Saturday will be followed by an uptick in thunderstorms coverage early next week. Moisture source first focused over LNF and central New Mexico on Monday will shift westward midweek, bringing daily scattered thunderstorms to GNF and western New Mexico through Thursday. Storms will be capable of flash flooding and erratic winds. Most forest locations will get wetting rains during this period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 73 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 93 67 94 67 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 97 66 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 94 68 96 70 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 72 52 75 52 / 30 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 94 67 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 88 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 99 65 101 68 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 95 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 97 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 96 69 98 70 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 99 73 101 75 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 91 68 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 98 71 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 96 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 96 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 95 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 98 66 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 98 71 100 72 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 94 67 96 70 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 83 57 86 57 / 30 0 10 0 Mescalero 83 57 86 57 / 30 0 10 0 Timberon 81 56 83 56 / 20 0 10 0 Winston 87 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 94 63 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 95 64 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 89 56 91 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 92 62 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 96 64 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 91 61 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 95 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 94 65 96 66 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 95 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 90 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt