Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
629 FXUS64 KEPZ 121714 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1014 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1013 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Expect continued dry conditions with a warming trend through Friday. - A storm system this weekend has trended towards a more northerly track. This will mean breezy west winds on Sunday, with some isolated to scattered rain showers west of the Divide. - Cooler temperatures arrive early next week, and additional chances for light precipitation around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 Models have continued to keep upper low currently heading towards the West Coast offshore until Saturday and then start lifting it out well to our north. Ahead of this system, the Borderland will be a general southwest flow keeping temperatures well above normal. In fact, the records at KELP over the next 5 days are 82 or 83 and that is definitely doable. NBM temps did seem a tad low and with records possible, raised highs to the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the lowlands including tying or being a degree below records. During the next few days, dry air remains in place and overnight lows will continue to drop off quickly and expect NBM temps to continue being too warm and MET guidance being better as it has in recent days. Some changes start this weekend as the upper low moves inland and opens up as it crosses the Great Basin/Four Corners. NBM continues to bring in high chance PoPs into the Gila region with 20-30s along the AZ border. Given the models are in decent agreement with handling of this feature, think it will be tough to get much precip onto the lowlands and did taper PoPs off a little bit for the lowlands Sat night into Sun. Even if the more aggressive EC verifies, not sure there will even be any snow in the Gila with the colder air staying well north. As this feature moves NE there will be a little bit of cooler air filtering in on the lowlands. Do not see temps falling more than about 3-5 degrees, so they will still remain well above normal, but a little increased moisture will help overnight lows from dropping off quite so far. The next system will be moving towards the West Coast Mon/Tue. There are some major differences in how the models are handling this one. GFS and the AI-EC model are very similar and dive a strong jet streak down the west side of the low and it digs into northern Baja tapping plenty of moisture and bringing it into the area Tue-Wed. The deterministic EC just moves this feature through the Central Rockies as a weak trough by early Wed with no precip. Not much confidence at this time with handling of this system given how much as changed with the current upper low moving towards the coast and poor performance with most strong upper lows moving onshore. Didn`t do anything with NBM PoPs here which gradually raises them into early Wed bringing in 20-30s through the day with highs falling to near normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 P6SM SKC-SCT250 through the period with winds AOB 10KTS, generally from the west to southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1013 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 Near record highs over the next several days as the lowlands reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Min RH`s will also remain mainly in the 15-20 percent range but winds will stay below 15 mph so no critical fire conditions are expected. As we go into the weekend, there will be a very small cool down, but dew points will be rising helping RH`s get into the 20s and 30s by Sunday. Occasional breezy conditions are possible as well this weekend. Poor to fair vent rates for Thu with Fair to Good prevailing for Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 46 82 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 40 78 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 40 77 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 58 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 38 80 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 39 78 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 35 82 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 45 84 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 44 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 43 82 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 41 79 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 32 78 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 37 81 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 81 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 41 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 71 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 37 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 35 66 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 72 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 35 77 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 71 27 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 75 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 30 76 32 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 28 73 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 39 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 80 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 42 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 43 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 74 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz