Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
583 FXUS64 KEPZ 101120 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 520 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 417 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025 - Temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average through the end of the week. - Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry, just a slight chance for thunderstorms in area mountains and near the Arizona border. - Moisture pushes east for Friday into Saturday bringing isolated thunderstorms to the region along with a gradual cool down in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 944 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Our good old friend, the upper level ridge, is on the move again tonight. The upper level ridge is sliding across northern Mexico and will be centered over west Texas by Wednesday afternoon. At the same time an approaching upper level trough will be moving into the California coast. The circulation around these two weather features will begin to draw moisture up from the south, but it will be a slow process. By Wednesday afternoon the weak moisture plume will be centered just to the west of New Mexico. A few storms may drift into the area from Arizona, but like Tuesday, most of us will stay dry. High temperatures on Wednesday will run 5 to 7 degrees above average, that will put much of the lowlands in the mid 90`s. There is a 20 to 30% chance for El Paso to hit 100 degrees which may be the last chance for a triple digit reading this year. On Thursday, not much will change, the trough will be out west and the ridge will be just to our east. The narrow plume of moisture will drift ever so slightly to the east. Basically thunderstorm coverage on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday. Our high temperatures on Thursday will come down a degree or two from Wednesday`s highs. By Friday the upper level ridge will drift a little east and the upper level trough will also push a little east, which means the narrow band of moisture will move into western New Mexico. Best chances for rain Friday afternoon will be west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures on Friday will drop a degree or two again. For the weekend, the trough to our west will lift up and move across southern Colorado. This will help bring a better chance for rain to the whole area as the trough moves out on Saturday. By Sunday the southwest flow aloft looks to keep the moisture plume centered just to our east, but at the surface, southeasterly flow will allow some moisture back in at the low levels. Right now it looks like convection will be limit on Sunday, mainly to locations east of the Rio Grande. High temperatures this weekend will run a degree or two above average. For next Monday and Tuesday, we will see better rain chances and high temperatures a degree or two below average as more moisture moves back into the region. Hopefully we can squeeze out some more rain days before we wrap up this year`s monsoon season. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 417 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC through the morning and winds light and VRB. Winds will becoming SE/S by 18Z at 6-12 knots. Skies will become FEW at 10-15kft during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 417 AM MDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Fire weather concerns are low with low fire danger. Generally dry weather can be expected over the next day or two, with isolated showers and storms over the Sacs/Gila Mtns and west of the Divide as high moisture values slowly move in from the south and west. Min RH values will gradually trend up through the end of the work week and into the week. Temperatures will remain above average today and tomorrow with a gradual decrease back to around average by the weekend. Winds will remain light to low-end breezy each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 98 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 91 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 95 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 95 66 94 66 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 71 50 70 49 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 92 66 91 66 / 10 0 0 10 Silver City 87 61 85 61 / 20 10 20 20 Deming 97 65 95 66 / 10 10 10 10 Lordsburg 94 65 92 66 / 20 20 20 10 West El Paso Metro 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 95 63 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 97 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 89 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 96 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 95 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 95 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 94 66 92 66 / 10 0 0 10 Hatch 97 65 95 67 / 10 0 0 10 Columbus 97 67 95 67 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 93 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 82 53 81 52 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 82 55 82 52 / 30 10 0 0 Timberon 80 53 78 52 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 85 55 83 55 / 20 0 20 10 Hillsboro 92 63 91 62 / 10 0 10 10 Spaceport 92 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 87 57 86 57 / 20 10 20 20 Hurley 90 61 88 61 / 20 10 10 10 Cliff 94 64 92 64 / 20 20 20 20 Mule Creek 90 60 87 60 / 20 20 20 20 Faywood 90 63 87 63 / 10 0 10 10 Animas 95 66 92 66 / 20 20 20 10 Hachita 94 65 91 65 / 10 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 93 63 91 64 / 10 10 10 10 Cloverdale 88 62 86 62 / 20 20 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers