539
FXUS64 KEPZ 311134
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
534 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...


.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

 - Extremely hot temperatures today with triple digits common
   across the desert lowlands. Forecast high of 108F for El Paso,
   106F for Las Cruces, and 109F to 110F in the Lower Valley.

 - Scattered severe storms possible Saturday afternoon with damaging
   wind gusts, severe hail, and flash flooding possible.

 - Highs will be cooler over the weekend, but triple digits return
   early next week. Expect continued daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1036 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Upper high will continue to spin over the desert southwest Friday.
Still have plenty of moisture across the area for another round of
monsoonal thunderstorms even with the upper high right over us. Hi-
res guidance is showing a bit better coverage for storms tomorrow
with scattered storms possible everywhere, even in the desert
lowlands later that afternoon. In addition, Friday will be the
hottest day of the week ahead with a forecast high of 108F for El
Paso. Basically all zones except the area mountains will be under a
Heat Advisory tomorrow. Heading into Saturday, an active
thunderstorm day looks to be ahead. A cutoff low will dive south
and east over the mid-western states Saturday which will spill in
a cold front into the area. High pressure will be shunted to the
west over AZ that day leaving us under northerly flow. SPC is
highlighting much of Otero county, northeast portions of Dona Ana
and eastern portion of Sierra county in the Marginal Risk (level
1/5). Severe hail, severe wind gusts, and flash flooding will be
the primary hazards. In addition, WPC has the same general area
under a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for flash flooding Saturday.

Sunday through mid-week next week the upper high will continue to
meander over the desert southwest. Slightly cooler over the weekend
but temperatures start rising back up to triple digits Monday
through Wednesday. Continued daily thunderstorm chances each
afternoon with the area mountains and western locations border
Arizona will be favored for storm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT, ocnl BKN, 110-250. Winds
will generally be from the east (060-090) but with considerable
variability, especially this morning. Speeds this afternoon will
top out around 10 kts with a few gusts to 20 knots. ISO to SCT
SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon and evening. No mention of
TSRA in this TAF cycle but will likely be included in future
updates. Most likely timing for storms, if they occur, in ELP is
between 21z-3z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Very hot conditions are expected in the lowlands today with many
locations seeing one of the hottest days of the year, so far.
Afternoon RH values will dip into the mid to upper teens in the
lowlands. Winds will be light with good vent categories. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the mountains
this afternoon before pushing into the lowlands late afternoon
into the evening. Saturday will not be as hot with higher
afternoon humidity along with more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. On Sunday, drier and warmer conditions will return
to most of the area. Thunderstorm chances will largely be held to
the mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78  99  75  98 /  50  40  40   0
Sierra Blanca            71  94  67  93 /  10  20  20  10
Las Cruces               73  98  68  96 /  50  50  60   0
Alamogordo               71  97  67  95 /  30  50  50  10
Cloudcroft               53  72  50  72 /  30  90  60  30
Truth or Consequences    75  98  70  96 /  20  30  40   0
Silver City              67  92  64  90 /  30  70  30  40
Deming                   75 100  70  97 /  30  30  40   0
Lordsburg                74 100  71  97 /  20  40  50  10
West El Paso Metro       79  99  75  97 /  50  40  50   0
Dell City                74  97  70  97 /  20  30  30   0
Fort Hancock             78 101  75 100 /  20  20  20  10
Loma Linda               71  91  68  90 /  30  30  40  10
Fabens                   77 100  74  98 /  30  30  30  10
Santa Teresa             76  98  72  96 /  40  40  50   0
White Sands HQ           77  98  73  96 /  50  50  60   0
Jornada Range            74  98  70  96 /  50  50  70   0
Hatch                    75 102  70  99 /  30  50  60   0
Columbus                 78 100  73  98 /  30  40  40   0
Orogrande                71  95  68  94 /  30  40  50  10
Mayhill                  58  82  56  84 /  30  80  50  20
Mescalero                58  84  55  83 /  40  90  50  20
Timberon                 56  81  53  81 /  20  90  50  20
Winston                  63  90  60  89 /  20  60  20  10
Hillsboro                71  96  66  95 /  20  40  30  10
Spaceport                72  98  67  96 /  40  50  60   0
Lake Roberts             61  92  59  91 /  30  70  30  50
Hurley                   69  95  65  93 /  30  50  30  30
Cliff                    70 100  68  98 /  30  60  30  40
Mule Creek               68  96  66  94 /  20  60  30  30
Faywood                  71  94  66  92 /  30  60  30  10
Animas                   76 101  72  98 /  20  50  60   0
Hachita                  74  99  70  96 /  30  50  60   0
Antelope Wells           74  99  70  96 /  20  50  60  10
Cloverdale               70  95  66  92 /  20  60  70  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
     Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
     for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black
     Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana
     County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
     Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown