Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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820 FXUS64 KEPZ 081704 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1004 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 The system that brought mountain snow and lowland rain showers yesterday will continue to exit the area leaving much quieter conditions. Temperatures stay well below average today and tomorrow. Hudspeth county is expected to see their first freeze Saturday morning. Gradual warming of temperatures, dry conditions, and light winds can be expected through mid week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 The system that brought mountain snow and lowland rain showers will continue to lift and exit the area to the northeast across the southern Plains today. Patchy freezing fog possible early this morning for the Sacramento Mtns which is expected to burn off by mid morning if it does occur. Otherwise, temperatures will stay well below average today (by 10-20 degrees) with light winds and mostly sunny skies. Hudspeth county is expected to see their first freezing temperatures of the season Saturday morning. NBM probabilities of reaching freezing temperatures are 50-80% over the county. Fort Hancock has a 70% chance, Dell City is almost certain to freeze, and the interior portion of the county has around an 80% chance. Locations further south down the Rio Grande Valley have a very low to no chance of freezing. El Paso county has yet to hit their first freeze of the season, and Saturday morning it does come close but much of the county will stay above freezing with the exception of a few localities. The area will remain under zonal flow with a flat ridge building over central Mexico through early to mid-week next week. This will allow for gradual warming of temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 906 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 P6SM SKC with just some FEW-SCT040-060 over the Sacramento Mountains through 00Z. Winds generally west to southwest AOB 10KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 Low fire concerns today becoming elevated tomorrow and onward for the lowlands. Min RH values today stay around 20-30% for the lowlands and 40-60% for the area mountains with light winds. Light winds are expected to persist tomorrow through early next week with gradual warming of temperatures each day and continued dry weather. Critical min RH values expected to expand each day through Wednesday where many locations in the lowlands will see critical RH`s. Tuesday will be near critical as breezy southwest 20 foot winds are 10-15 MPH that afternoon. Ventilation rates will be poor to good today becoming poor Saturday through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 58 36 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 32 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 29 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 28 60 34 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 30 19 40 27 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 30 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 27 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 25 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 37 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 28 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 31 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 49 32 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 31 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 30 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 35 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 25 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 25 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 30 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 29 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 24 57 32 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 40 22 50 29 / 30 0 0 0 Timberon 41 22 51 29 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 48 18 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 26 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 25 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 24 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 25 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 59 16 67 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 53 25 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 27 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 57 27 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 56 25 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 29 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 32 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Saturday for TXZ420>424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz