Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
705 FXUS64 KEPZ 110503 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1003 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1003 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 - No significant weather impacts are expected through mid portion of next week. - Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures through Saturday. - A back door cold front will bring some breezy to windy conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning, with temperatures cooling about 7-10 degrees Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1003 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Large scale picture remains mostly unchanged as upper high persists over eastern Pacific and/or northern Mexico through the mid portion of next week. Upper ridge strongest through Saturday with very few if any clouds, allowing temperatures to warm well above normal, some 10-15 degrees above seasonal averages. Next developing Canadian upper low rides over the top of aforementioned ridge Friday and Saturday, eventually reaching the Great Lakes region. This produces a moderate north/northwest flow aloft, resulting in strong pressure surge down the central Plains and Front Range of the Rockies. This will bring some breezy winds to west slopes of terrain such as the Guadalupe, Hueco, Franklin Mountains early Sunday morning, and eventually out to Luna and Hidalgo Counties by Sunday afternoon. Expect some gusts up to 30 mph during this period. Decent cold advection with 850mb temp changes suggesting cooling of 10 degrees or more from Saturday to Sunday, though various MOS outputs show less cooling. It remains to be seen yet whether this front can generate low cloudiness andor drizzle along the east slopes of the Sacs. Low-level RH fields on models show this potential Sunday morning but a little early yet to make that call. Monday through Wednesday...non-impactful pattern continuing, though the GFS/ECMWF both show weak upper low cutting through the ridge and across the CWA Monday night/Tuesday morning. Little or no moisture with this feature. Temperatures recovering back to well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR through the period with SKC-SCT250. Variable winds AOB 7 knots, becoming west/southwest 7-10 knots after 20Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1043 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Fair, dry, and benign weather continues, and should do so for the next week or so. High pressure remains anchored over the west coast, extending into the Southwest Deserts. The W and NW flow pattern over the ridge is keeping the storm track well to our north, and keeping dry and mild conditions over our area. This will mean dry weather, with few clouds, and no precipitation. RH will drop to the upper teens and 20s each afternoon, and recover into the 50-70% range each night. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer, and be well above the daily averages. Winds will be generally light, with typical daytime breezes, and lighter nighttime drainage. Sunday we see a backdoor front push in from the plains for a day of east winds, and some gusts. Temperatures will cool about 5 or so degrees, but remain mild and above normal. Next week, we start to march temperatures warmer again, as we remain under ridging. Models are beginning to show a quick passing shortwave upper trough to pass across the region, but it will be lacking moisture to work with, so we will continue dry for quite a while to come. The high pressure over the region will limit mixing heights, and also keep winds relatively light, so ventilation will continue to struggle, with mostly poor and fair categories dominating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 42 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 38 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 65 38 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 66 33 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 33 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 65 39 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 68 40 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 70 37 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 68 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 43 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 68 32 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 70 38 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 41 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 36 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 45 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 65 30 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 32 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 68 40 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 63 32 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 68 40 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 62 35 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 60 34 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 67 33 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 68 41 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 66 30 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 69 29 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 68 38 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 72 29 74 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 70 23 71 25 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 41 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 70 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 36 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 70 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 68 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner