Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
444 FXUS64 KEPZ 051123 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 423 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 403 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 - Friday, cold morning and cool afternoon with afternoon breezes, but dry and sunny. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 Our latest storm system pulled away from the region through the afternoon hours today, leaving behind some mountain snow across the Sacs and Gila, as well as some light and spotty lowland rain. We are now on the backside of that exiting wave of energy and moisture, but still under a very broad and relatively shallow trough that extends almost coast to coast, across the U.S. Over the west coast there is ridging, and the flow is mostly zonal over the east coast. Also there is a pendant trough over the Baja, somewhat disconnected from the flow across the U.S. in the parent trough. For us that means the storm track is back to our north, with moisture streaming across the Rockies to our north. The disconnected trough over the Baja has a connection to subtropical moisture, and is steering it NE across N Mexico into TX, but mostly to our S and E, as increasing NW flow into our region, pushes that moisture plume south of our area. Thus we will trend sharply drier under this persistent NW flow pattern. Looking ahead the next week, we see a static pattern entrenched over our region, with high pressure off the SCAL coast, keeping a ridge over the SW U.S., with a broad standing trough spilling out of the PacNM, across the Central Rockies, into the Tennessee Valley over the SE U.S. That keeps us in a dry NW flow regime for the duration of this forecast package. This will manifest in temperature warming to seasonal for the weekend, and above normal (5-7 degrees) for most of next week. After a mildly breezy afternoon Friday, winds look to be generally light for the next week. Outside of a few periods of passing high clouds, we expect to see mostly clear skies for the week ahead. And from a probability perspective, our rain/snow/precip chances are as close to zero as they can get through the end of next week. Bottom line, Friday, the weekend, and all of next week, look to have fair weather, with dry conditions, seasonal and above temperatures, and relatively light winds most days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT040-060/250 BCMG SKC- FEW250 by 18z. Winds will start off light and variable, but increase to the 10 to 15 knot range by 20z with gusts up to 25 knots. Direction will be from the west to northwest (270-320). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 420 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025 A warming and drying trend is expected throughout the forecast period. Highs will gradually warm each day, peaking on Wednesday while dew points decrease. This will lead to afternoon min RH values in the lower 20s and upper teens. Winds will be breezy for today and Saturday, topping out around 10 to 15 MPH. Venting will range fair to good each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 36 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 31 60 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 28 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 27 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 40 25 43 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 29 62 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 27 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 28 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 27 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 36 63 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 24 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 33 68 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 32 55 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 31 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 31 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 36 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 24 61 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 25 66 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 33 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 26 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 27 55 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 24 51 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 24 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 23 60 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 30 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 22 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 56 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 25 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 22 61 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 23 57 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 29 58 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 29 63 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 28 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 30 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 33 56 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown