Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
296 FXUS64 KEPZ 041213 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 513 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Upper level system is currently bringing snow showers mainly to the Sacramento Mountains, with light sprinkles in a few lowland areas, mainly north of the I-10 corridor in New Mexico. - Snowfall in the Sacramento Mountains by morning will range from a dusting to 2 inches, with the higher amounts above 7500 feet. - Cooler temperatures are expected through the day Thursday, with cold temperatures Thursday and Friday night. - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and a slow warming trend are expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis shows a shortwave trough extending from south-central Colorado into Arizona. You can also see plenty of moisture aloft well south of the border. Just a few days ago, models were trending towards a more amplified trough digging further south and tapping some of that moisture...but it was not meant to be. On the nighttime microphysics imagery, you can see a little northeast push from a backdoor cold front sneaking into the Sacramento Mountains. Though the steadier northeast winds are out over the Eastern Plains, some of that cooler and drier air has pushed into the eastern and northern portions of the Sacramento Mountains. This is making for somewhat disjointed snow levels, with snow levels around 6500 feet east and northeast of the main ridgeline, and closer to 7500-8000 feet along the west slopes. Webcams show it`s snowing steadily in Ruidoso and Lake Mescalero, with a dusting on the US-70 road surface at Apache Summit (7600`). A light accumulation is also covering the ground at Lake Mescalero (6950`), and it has just started sticking to the roads at Cloudcroft (8675`). A webcam at Sky Country Estates (8870`) looks to have roughly a half inch accumulation on the deck railing. This broken band of light snow will persist for a few more hours, then snow showers will become lighter and more sparse around dawn. Total snow accumulations by morning will be around 1-2 inches above 8000 feet, down to a dusting around 6000 feet. A dusting is also possible along Emory Pass in the Black Range, where precip is much lighter. Otherwise, it`s back to benign weather tomorrow, though cooler temperatures will prevail. Highs in the lowlands will be in the middle to upper-50s (about 4-8 degrees below normal), and the lower to middle-30s above 8000 feet (8 to 12 degrees below normal). Lighter winds and clear skies will make for a cold night Thursday night into Friday morning, with another shot at reaching the freezing mark again here on the mesa at Santa Teresa. Much of the Mesilla and Hatch Valleys will dip into the middle-20s, with 10s in the usual cold spots around the Gila. It still looks like KELP, downtown, and the east side of El Paso will stay above freezing by 2-3 degrees, though colder temperatures may creep up into the more urbanized parts of the Lower Valley. Temperatures will rise to near normal for Friday, while overnight lows Friday night will only be a degree or two off the previous night. We`ll see an overall warming trend, with highs reaching the middle 60s in the lowlands no later than Saturday. Dry and benign northwest flow looks to continue through the forecast period, with no strong winds or precip on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 The upper level storm system that brought some light rain and light mountain snow showers to the area is moving off to the northeast and taking the clouds and precipitation with it. The ceilings have already cleared in KDMN and KTCS and will soon clear in KLRU and then a couple hours later at KELP. We will continue to have unlimited ceilings through this evening and into the overnight hours. Winds today will be light out of the north and then become light and variable tonight, into Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 Fire weather concerns will continue to be minimal. Wind into the start of next week, will be light during the afternoon hours. Min RH`s today will be above 30% almost everywhere, but we will see a slow drying trend through the weekend, so that by the start of next week we will see min RH`s in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands and in the mid 20`s in the mountains. Ventilation rates today will be poor to fair, but improve to good on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 35 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 30 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 29 55 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 36 25 40 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 27 54 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 25 51 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 27 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 30 56 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 33 60 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 25 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 33 65 33 67 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 30 54 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 34 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 33 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 36 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 23 57 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 26 60 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 31 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 30 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 27 50 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 25 47 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 21 45 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 16 52 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 29 56 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 27 55 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 13 52 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 26 54 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 23 57 20 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 16 53 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 26 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 31 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 30 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 28 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 33 54 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice