730
FXUS64 KEPZ 232334
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
434 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 425 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

- Dry weather through the end of next week. Temperatures above
  normal through Wednesday.

- Near seasonable temperatures for the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Currently, conditions are quiet with the winds light and variable,
the skies sunny and the temperatures on the mild side. For tonight,
quiet weather conditions will continue with high pressure off the
coast of Baja California and a zonal flow aloft. The skies will
be partly cloudy and winds near the surface mainly light except
across the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Due to
this, the low temperatures on Sunday morning will be several
degrees above the normal. For Sunday, flat riding will continue as
a storm system moves across our far north. The winds will
increase to breezy with the weak surface lee cyclone across the
Central Plains and jet over head. The strong winds will be
generally from the west; thus, the high temperatures in the
afternoon will be above the average.

For the rest of the period, conditions will be mostly quiet. A
backdoor cold front will move down south as a surface high
pressure expands behind the storm system that will move to our
far north on Sunday. This cold front will bring cooler afternoon
high temperatures on Monday. However, this front will north cool
us down that much as the temperatures will remain above the
normal, but they will be 1 to 5 degrees cooler than what they will
be on Sunday afternoon. This cold front will move out overnight
Monday with the temperatures warming a couple of degrees on
Tuesday ahead of positively tilted trough across the Pacific West.
By Wednesday, the trough will move over the Rockies and as it
does, the winds will begin to pick up. The winds on Wednesday will
be the strongest of the week. With a jet moving aloft and an
boundary associated cold front boundary moving to the south, this
will allow for the winds to be breezy to low end windy throughout
the day on Wednesday. This cold front will push through overnight
Wednesday into Thursday morning, which will cause to the high
temperatures toward the latter half of the week to cool to near
the normal even though some areas will still remain a few degrees
the average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period with
high clouds increasing through the period. Light winds expected
tonight and through much of the morning hours tomorrow but will
become breezy after 18Z with a west wind. Dust possible tomorrow
afternoon with KDMN, KELP, and KLRU having the best chances to see
BLDU, especially KDMN and KELP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Mostly dry weather conditions will persist for the rest of the
day. Tonight recovery will be mainly fair. For Sunday, moisture
will decrease. The winds will be light to breezy and temperatures
above the normal. Sunday overnight recovery will be somewhat
similar to that of tonight`s recovery. Moisture will increase a
little on Monday. For the rest of the period, mostly quiet
weather conditions are expected. The winds will be breezy on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front that is expected to move through
during the overnight hours. The temperatures will be above the
normal through Wednesday pre-frontal then cool to near the normal
post-frontal for the rest of the week. With that being said,
except for a few areas of elevated to near critical conditions,
generally there will be no fire weather concerns through the
period.

The min RHs will be below 17% areawide on Sunday, but will
increase 5 to 15% on Monday. The ventilation rates will be poor
to very good on Sunday then poor to good on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  47  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            44  71  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               40  72  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               40  70  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               37  51  35  50 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    39  72  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              42  64  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   36  73  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                37  70  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       46  73  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                38  75  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             41  77  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               45  65  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   40  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             39  72  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           48  71  50  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            37  71  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    36  75  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 41  74  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                39  69  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  44  67  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                39  62  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 38  60  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  34  65  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                39  72  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                34  72  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             36  64  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   37  67  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    25  73  27  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               36  65  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  41  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   39  74  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  38  73  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           41  74  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               42  68  43  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher