Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
237 FXUS64 KEPZ 081742 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1042 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1028 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 - A cold front arrives on Sunday, bringing much cooler temperatures and gusty east winds. - Dry conditions remain in the forecast through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 A deep longwave trough is currently evident on satellite imagery as it cuts its way into the Great Plains. The continued eastward progression of this feature will kick off a blustery backdoor cold front down the plains states today into tonight, which will surge southward and westward toward the Borderland. Winds tonight will shift northeasterly to easterly around midnight, becoming particularly gusty across eastern zones as it barrels across far west TX. A few locales may flirt with Wind Advisory criteria for a short duration as the front pushes through, particularly along the east slopes of the Huecos, Organs, and San Andres. Gusty winds will spread westward throughout the early morning hours as the front surges towards the NM/AZ border. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots may result in areas of blowing dust, particularly along the I-10 corridor between Akela Flats and Lordsburg. Also added an area of blowing dust across Hudspeth Co due to the potential for dust sources beyond our CWA border accompanying the easterly push, though less confident in that scenario. Colder temperatures will follow in the front`s wake, with eastern zones seeing highs Sunday around 15F to 20F lower than today`s readings. Zones further west are likely to see reductions around 10F to 15F. How overnight temperatures shake out will be highly dependent on if winds subside. With less certainty in that regard, did keep temperatures just above to well above freezing for most lower elevation locales. Some areas may dip below freezing for a short period (less than 3hrs) should winds slacken and radiative cooling processes are able to become more efficient. Given the aforementioned uncertainty, did opt to not issue any freeze related products for Sunday night/Monday morning until confidence improves surrounding the surface variables. A warmup will be on the docket at the start of the work week as a stout high pressure builds across the western CONUS. Temperatures will climb above average areawide again by Tuesday. Dry conditions and generally light winds will prevail as the high pressure meanders across the Desert Southwest. It will begin to flatten and erode by Wednesday night as a potent system begins to push inland to the PacNW. Run-to-run consistency on this feature has been lackluster, to say the least. Additionally, a lack of certainty has been demonstrated by models regarding its track or evolution, leaving little beyond crystal ball speculation for the finer details. What has been consistent is the tune that a system will infiltrate the Desert Southwest late next week. Its strength and track will determine whether the Borderland experiences a windbag, precipitation, or little impact to sensible weather. Stay tuned... && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. A gusty backdoor cold front will shift winds nely to ely aft 09/08Z. Wind gusts are likely to peak btwn 09/14Z and 09/19Z. Lcl BLDU may impact KDMN aft sunrise but did not include in the TAF due to lower certainty. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1028 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 A backdoor cold front will surge southward and westward tonight into tomorrow. While moisture will accompany the front, the increase in winds may create localized elevated fire weather conditions across the lowlands early in the afternoon on Sunday. High pressure will build behind the front, allowing for temperatures to rebound and moisture to scour out. MinRH in the low double digits will become widespread on Tuesday, expanding in coverage on Wednesday, and persisting until Friday. A low confidence forecast enters the arena on Friday as a pattern change looms off the west coast. Evolution and track of the incoming system next weekend will determine potential impacts from wind or precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 50 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 42 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 41 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 45 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 44 67 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 50 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 40 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 47 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 43 57 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 66 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 48 64 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 65 27 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 41 68 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 68 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 62 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 29 51 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 30 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 29 52 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 35 59 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 43 64 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 65 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 65 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 40 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 40 71 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 69 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 62 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 68 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 44 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 43 67 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 64 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99