366
FXUS64 KEPZ 040433
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1033 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Low chance of showers and storms in the Sacramento Mountains
    and Hudspeth County each afternoon through the weekend.

 -  Temperatures will steadily climb through the week, with highs
    in the lower deserts climbing above 100 degrees again, peaking
    this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A s/w ridge is over NM this evening, in between yesterday`s rain
maker and another system off the Baja Peninsula Coast. Surface obs
across the region show decent low level moisture with dewpoints in
the 40s common, but strong capping, courtesy of the ridge is
suppressing convection for the entire CWA. This moisture will
begin to push east as the Baja low weakens and rapidly lifts
northeast, helping increase southwest flow aloft. Surface low will
be anchored over the Rio Grande Valley, limiting winds, but the
afternoon will feature some breeziness. Highs will also warm a few
degrees from today. Enough moisture will be in place to give a
20-30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm over the Sacramento
Mountains, but everyone else should stay dry.

The rest of the week will see the subtropical ridge slowly build
over Mexico and Texas through the weekend, gradually increasing
heights over Southern NM and Far W. TX. Highs will increase daily,
peaking on Sunday. GFS and Euro show H500 heights around 591 or
592 dm with H850 temps in the mid-30s C. Thus, lowland highs in
the 100s F will be common. El Paso and the Texas RGV will be near
or just over heat advisory criteria of 105. Moisture will remain
close to the eastern boundary of our CWA, and the NBM throws low
POPs into parts of Hudspeth and Otero Counties, just about daily.
If anything forms, it would be pretty isolated.

Going into Monday and Tuesday of next week, the ridge will
flatten as a s/w trough passes to our northwest. This will bring
temperatures down a few degrees. Both the GFS and Euro show a
stronger, larger UL trough across the Great Lakes, which will try
and push a cold front through the Plains, possibly entering our
CWA. If successful, that would reintroduce POPs as well as trim
highs further.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the period with FEW-SCT250. Winds
will remain generally light during the overnight hours with speeds
at or below 10 knots. The exception may be ELP as a wind shift may
bring speeds a bit higher and a bit more easterly than indicated.
Otherwise, southerly to southwesterly winds are expected by
afternoon (170-220) with speeds topping out around 10-15 knots
along with a few gusts to 25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1206 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Elevated fire danger each day through the weekend due to critical
min RH values. Our saving grace will be the light winds each day.
Tomorrow will be the breeziest of the period with wind speeds
10-20 mph. Otherwise expect winds generally 5-15 mph each
afternoon with light winds overnight. Rain chances look bleak, but
the Sacramento Mtns and eastern locations of the forecast area
will have the best chances. Ventilation rates will be very good to
excellent each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  71  96  69 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            88  62  91  63 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces               90  63  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  62  91  61 /   0  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               67  46  68  48 /  10  10  20  20
Truth or Consequences    89  65  90  62 /  10  20  10   0
Silver City              82  56  83  55 /  10  10  10   0
Deming                   91  63  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                88  62  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                93  62  91  66 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Hancock             95  65  99  66 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               85  62  87  63 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   93  66  96  65 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             89  66  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           91  69  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            90  60  91  58 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                    93  62  93  59 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 92  67  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  64  90  62 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  80  48  78  50 /  10  10  20  20
Mescalero                78  50  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
Timberon                 76  48  76  48 /   0  10  20  20
Winston                  81  50  81  47 /  20  30  10   0
Hillsboro                88  57  88  56 /  10  10  10   0
Spaceport                89  60  90  56 /  10  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             84  52  83  50 /  10  20  10   0
Hurley                   85  56  86  54 /  10  10   0   0
Cliff                    89  58  88  55 /  10  10  10   0
Mule Creek               84  57  83  54 /  10  10  10   0
Faywood                  85  59  85  57 /  10  10   0   0
Animas                   89  62  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  88  62  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           88  59  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               82  59  83  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown