Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
823 FXUS64 KEPZ 081159 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 459 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 437 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 - Our warm temperatures will continue on Saturday with above average high temperatures and light winds. - A cold front arrives on Sunday, bringing much cooler temperatures and gusty east winds. - Still no rain chances in the forecast through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1007 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 Little to no changes from previous forecast packages with dry weather and above average temperatures through Saturday. Then a fairly stout backdoor cold front pushes through late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, ushering in colder temperatures and breezy winds. For Saturday, quiet and fair weather conditions will prevail with no weather impacts. Temperatures each afternoon will be 5-10 degrees above the seasonal average with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees across the desert lowlands. Winds will be light and variable with mostly sunny skies. Late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, an upper level system racing across the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest will push a cold front south across the Great Plains before moving east to west across the local area. Model and ensemble guidance, with consistent confidence, has the backdoor cold front moving through late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning. There will be noticeable sensible weather changes after frontal passage with colder temperatures and breezy to windy conditions on Sunday. Temperature-wise, highs on Sunday will be 10-20 degrees colder than Saturday, topping out in the low 60s across the desert lowlands. The cold front will also induce windy conditions on Sunday. NBM model guidance shows Medium to High (60-90% chance) confidence that maximum wind gusts will be greater than 30 mph for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor and all of west TX. Low to Medium (10-40% chance) confidence for maximum winds greater than 40 mph for portions of west TX and northern half of Hidalgo County. With these backdoor cold fronts, the strongest winds will be felt along the western slopes of area mountains. That said, if you heading out to church, Sunday morning brunch, or plan on going to the Upper Valley Artist & Farmers Market, be mindful of the gusty winds and colder temperatures. The aforementioned gusty winds will gradually diminish during the late afternoon and evening hours. Light winds will resume early Monday morning, promoting chilly morning temperatures to start the work week. Morning low temperatures across the desert lowlands will fall into 30s, with Low (20-30% chances) confidence that portions of the lowlands will drop below freezing. Temperatures for the El Paso metro will hover around 40 degrees. High temperatures on Monday will top out in the middle 60s. Benign upper level weather pattern will takeover the remainder of the work week with temperatures back to or slightly above the seasonal average and light afternoon breezes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with dry conditions. Skies generally stay SKC with light afternoon breezes generally out of the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 437 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 Very dry conditions persist with no rain chances expected through Friday. Critical min RHs expected across much of the lowlands this afternoon with values generally 13-18% and 20-30% in the area mountains. A potent cold front pushes in late tonight and early tomorrow morning shifting winds easterly with some breeziness along with the front, especially for west facing slopes. Min RHs stay just above critical values Sunday and Monday at 16-24% across the lowlands. Critical RHs return again Tuesday through Friday. 20 foot winds will be light at 5-10 mph this afternoon but will shift easterly tonight with the front, keeping some breeziness into the afternoon hours Sunday with speeds 10-15 mph. Thereafter, wind speeds will be 5-10 mph each afternoon calming overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 50 65 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 42 58 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 64 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 41 64 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 26 45 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 44 67 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 50 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 40 61 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 47 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 43 56 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 65 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 62 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 48 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 41 67 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 67 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 29 52 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 30 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 29 51 24 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 35 58 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 43 64 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 39 64 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 65 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 41 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 41 70 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 44 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 67 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher