850
FXUS64 KEPZ 031137
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
537 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

 - Light lowland rain and modest mountain snow chances Friday and
   Saturday

 - Afternoon breezes, gradual warming of temperatures, and dry
   weather expected Sunday through mid week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Our weather maker will continue to spin over the Four Corners
region today. Today will be fairly quiet with light afternoon
breeziness before precipitation arrives late tonight for eastern
areas of the CWA. The upper trough will dig south Friday before it
begins it`s eastward trajectory right across the Borderland
Saturday. Expect light lowland rain and mountain snow showers to
continue into Friday morning before spreading across much of the
area that afternoon. CAMs are suggesting convective showery
activity west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) close towards the
center of the low. It does seem like the dry slot may set up over
the middle of the CWA with the better tap of moisture and dynamics
further to our east. Showery activity shuts off temporarily
Friday night into Saturday morning but resumes that afternoon and
evening as wrap around moisture filters in from the north. The
main low has moved off over the Great Plains early Sunday morning
with some lingering energy drifting south keeping the area under
northerly flow. As it does so, a potent backdoor cold front is
expected to push into the area some time on Saturday, perhaps
Saturday morning. Breezy winds of 20-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH
expected with the front, and of course the chilly temperatures
that will filter in behind the front. Saturday and Sundays morning
lows look quite chilly up in the Sacramento Mtns with lows of
12-18 degrees and apparent temperatures getting to be as low as
8-9 degrees once wind is factored in. Cold weather advisory
criteria needs at or below 5 degrees, but will be something to
monitor in the coming days. Morning lows elsewhere has almost
every location below freezing Sunday morning. Much of El Paso may
just escape the freezing cold temperatures, but not by much.

As far as snow totals, latest forecasted totals for the Sacs show
2-4" with totals as high as 6" over the highest terrain. Black
Range snow totals are 1-3". The track of the low suggests that the
Sacs will have the better shots for snow. The worst of the snow
will be Saturday morning and into the afternoon. Can expect light
rain showers elsewhere. Once this trough moves out of the area
Sunday, we can expect light afternoon breeziness each day through
mid week, dry weather, and gradual warming of temperatures. Expect
highs in the 80s for the lowlands by Tuesday and and mid to upper
80s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions expected through much of the period with mostly
light afternoon breeziness. Winds will max out around 21Z today
with speeds anywhere from 12-18G20-28KT. Winds quickly calm after
sunset becoming AOB 10KT at 02-03Z. There are low end chances for
rain after 00Z tonight for the KELP/KLRU area. Will be seen as
light rain or virga.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Elevated fire danger today and tomorrow due to critical min RHs.
Winds will stay below critical thresholds with no windy days in
the 7 day forecast. Light lowland rain and modest mountain snow
expected Friday and Saturday. Min RHs stay out of critical
thresholds Saturday across the board but we quickly return to much
of the lowlands seeing critical RHs on Sunday creating elevated
fire danger. Near critical to critical fire danger expected
Monday and through midweek as high pressure sets up over the area.
Expect gradual warming temperatures, low end breezes, and very
dry air. Single digit min RHs expected Monday through Wednesday
across the lowlands.

Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent today and
tomorrow becoming good to very good Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  45  64  40 /  20  30  30  20
Sierra Blanca            64  41  58  34 /  20  40  60  40
Las Cruces               62  35  60  32 /  10  20  20  10
Alamogordo               62  39  63  32 /  10  20  30  30
Cloudcroft               40  24  40  18 /  10  20  40  40
Truth or Consequences    62  35  60  33 /  10  10  40  30
Silver City              53  29  51  27 /  10  10  50  20
Deming                   64  32  61  31 /  10  10  30  10
Lordsburg                60  29  57  28 /  10  10  40  10
West El Paso Metro       64  45  63  41 /  20  30  30  20
Dell City                65  42  60  33 /  10  20  50  40
Fort Hancock             70  44  65  37 /  20  40  50  40
Loma Linda               58  40  57  36 /  20  30  40  30
Fabens                   66  44  66  38 /  20  30  40  20
Santa Teresa             62  40  61  36 /  20  30  30  20
White Sands HQ           63  44  64  39 /  20  20  30  20
Jornada Range            62  35  61  31 /  10  20  20  20
Hatch                    65  32  64  31 /  10  10  30  20
Columbus                 66  35  62  36 /  10  10  20  10
Orogrande                62  40  61  34 /  20  20  30  20
Mayhill                  54  29  52  23 /  10  20  40  50
Mescalero                50  27  52  22 /  10  20  40  50
Timberon                 49  25  49  20 /  10  20  40  40
Winston                  53  22  50  20 /   0  10  60  30
Hillsboro                60  30  58  28 /  10  10  40  20
Spaceport                61  30  61  28 /  10  10  30  20
Lake Roberts             53  26  52  23 /  10  10  60  30
Hurley                   57  26  54  25 /  10  10  40  20
Cliff                    59  27  59  25 /  10  10  50  20
Mule Creek               54  28  54  28 /  10  10  60  20
Faywood                  56  30  55  28 /  10  10  40  10
Animas                   62  29  57  29 /  10  10  40  10
Hachita                  62  29  58  28 /  10  10  30  10
Antelope Wells           62  30  59  30 /  10  10  40  20
Cloverdale               56  30  52  31 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher