040
FXUS64 KEPZ 261720
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1120 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 428 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

 - Southwest winds will become increasingly breezy on this
   afternoon.

 - Strong winds and blowing dust will return to the region on
   Sunday, accompanied by critical to extreme fire weather
   conditions.

 - Seasonal weather with afternoon breezes Monday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 428 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

We will have one more nice day today, before the return of wind,
dust and critical fire weather conditions. For today, we will
have a dry and warm southwest flow aloft. Our temperatures this
afternoon will run a few degrees above average. Then the changes
begin. On Sunday an approaching upper level trough (currently just
off the California coast), will move across Nevada and Utah on
Sunday allowing strong winds aloft to rotate across New Mexico. At
the same time a decent lee side surface trough will develop over
eastern Colorado. The two weather features will combine to give us
strong gusty winds and another round of blowing dust Sunday
afternoon. We will mix up to around 600 mb on Sunday where we will
have winds of around 50 knots, so wind gusts to 60 mph at the
surface will be possible for much of southern New Mexico Sunday
afternoon. We have already seen many rounds of blowing dust this
Spring, and Sunday look like more of the same. Strong southwest
winds and warm high temperatures will favor lots of blowing dust.
The winds and blowing dust will drop off some Sunday night, but
the upper level trough will be slow to move off so Monday will be
breezy to windy. We could see some blowing dust on Monday as well,
because the strongest winds look to be centered just south of the
International Border near many of the dust source regions across
northern Mexico.

For Tuesday, a second upper level trough will move across New
Mexico. This second system isn`t as strong as Sunday`s low. The
second low doesn`t have as strong of winds aloft or much lee side
surface trough support, so we may be breezy, but not too bad. The
second trough will usher in some cooler air so that our high
temperatures will be slightly below average on Wednesday. For the
end of the week, we will still be dry with high temperatures
creeping back a little above average. Winds will be breezy, but
not too bad.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast period
across the area. Skies will be SKC at all terminals with
afternoon breezes this afternoon up to 20 kts in the lowlands and
22 kts in the mountains. Winds will become light after sunset and
persist through the early morning hours on Sunday, then winds will
ramp up rapidly by mid morning Sunday becoming windy with blowing
dust, which could lead to short duration drops in visibility
ahead as a Pacific storm system approaches the Borderland.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 428 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

We will be breezy with very dry conditions this afternoon, but the
winds will stay below critical levels. That will not be the case
on Sunday. An approaching upper level storm system will combine
with a lee side surface trough to give us strong winds Sunday
afternoon. The strong winds, very low RH`s (single digits) and
very dry fuels will create critical to extreme fire weather
conditions. A red flag warning is in effect for Sunday afternoon.
Breezy winds will continue most afternoons next week. Ventilation
rates the next couple of days will be excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  92  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  89  54  85 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               50  86  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               55  88  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  64  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    51  83  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  74  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   48  86  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                45  82  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  90  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  93  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             56  96  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               56  85  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  94  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             54  88  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           60  88  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  86  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    51  88  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 53  88  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  87  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  47  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                46  74  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 43  73  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  39  73  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  80  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  83  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             40  73  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   42  78  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    41  79  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               42  73  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  46  78  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   47  82  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  46  83  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           47  83  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  75  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Northern
     Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-
     Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona
     Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
     Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa
     Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
     7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...41-Kelly