681
FXUS64 KEPZ 081146
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
446 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

The system that brought mountain snow and lowland rain showers
yesterday will continue to exit the area leaving much quieter
conditions. Temperatures stay well below average today and
tomorrow. Hudspeth county is expected to see their first freeze
Saturday morning. Gradual warming of temperatures, dry conditions,
and light winds can be expected through mid week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

The system that brought mountain snow and lowland rain showers
will continue to lift and exit the area to the northeast across
the southern Plains today. Patchy freezing fog possible early this
morning for the Sacramento Mtns which is expected to burn off by
mid morning if it does occur. Otherwise, temperatures will stay
well below average today (by 10-20 degrees) with light winds and
mostly sunny skies. Hudspeth county is expected to see their first
freezing temperatures of the season Saturday morning. NBM
probabilities of reaching freezing temperatures are 50-80% over
the county. Fort Hancock has a 70% chance, Dell City is almost
certain to freeze, and the interior portion of the county has
around an 80% chance. Locations further south down the Rio Grande
Valley have a very low to no chance of freezing. El Paso county
has yet to hit their first freeze of the season, and Saturday
morning it does come close but much of the county will stay above
freezing with the exception of a few localities.

The area will remain under zonal flow with a flat ridge building
over central Mexico through early to mid-week next week. This
will allow for gradual warming of temperatures, light winds, and
dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Skies will continue to clear throughout the morning hours as the
system that brought lowland rain and mountain snow showers to the
area yesterday exits. Much quieter conditions this TAF period
with some lingering low clouds (FEW030-070) this morning but
expected to burn off throughout the mid and late morning becoming
SKC through the remainder of the period. Light northwest winds
this afternoon becoming AOB 7KT this evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low fire concerns today becoming elevated tomorrow and onward for
the lowlands. Min RH values today stay around 20-30% for the
lowlands and 40-60% for the area mountains with light winds. Light
winds are expected to persist tomorrow through early next week
with gradual warming of temperatures each day and continued dry
weather. Critical min RH values expected to expand each day
through Wednesday where many locations in the lowlands will see
critical RH`s. Tuesday will be near critical as breezy southwest
20 foot winds are 10-15 MPH that afternoon. Ventilation rates will
be poor to good today becoming poor Saturday through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  58  36  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            54  32  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  28  60  34 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               30  19  40  27 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  30  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              52  29  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  27  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  25  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       57  37  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  28  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  31  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               49  32  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  31  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             55  30  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           55  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            54  25  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  25  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 57  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                52  29  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  45  24  57  32 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                40  22  50  29 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                 41  22  51  29 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  48  18  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                55  26  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  25  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  24  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  25  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    59  16  67  23 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  25  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  27  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   57  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  25  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  29  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  32  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Saturday for
     TXZ420>424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher