271
FXUS64 KEPZ 052332
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
432 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 428 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

 - Very warm and dry conditions will continue through the
   weekend.

 - Daily high temperatures at or above records, with daily max
   temperatures 13 to 18 degrees above average.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns across the Borderland through
   the weekend due to dry fuels, critically dry conditions, well
   above normal heat, and marginally breezy afternoons. Overall
   conditions will still fall short of critical levels. However
   next Monday and Tuesday look to bring stronger winds, which may
   increase fire weather conditions to critical.

 - Temperatures will cool somewhat for next week. However,
   conditions will continue warmer than normal, with some breezy
   to windy conditions to start the week. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Not much day to day change across the Southwest U.S. as we remain
under a broad and deep low-amplitude westerly flow pattern that
is keeping a very dry and warm west flow pattern across the
region. In simple terms, this means our weather will continue with
well above normal temperatures (mild mornings) keeping afternoon
highs near, or at, or above daily records. Also, the environment
will be very dry, with no precipitation of any kind, very low
relative humidity, and few clouds, generally of the high type.

As the pattern flattens and become more zonal, we will see deep
alignment of westerly wind, minor surface troughing, and minor
ripples/waves in the flow aloft that will spur some daytime mixing
of increased winds aloft. This will mean occasionally and
marginally breezy conditions. These moderate winds, coupled with
the warm and dry environment, compounded by the lack of precip and
ongoing drought, and marked by dry fuels, will keep fire weather
conditions elevated through at least Sunday.

For Sunday, the models have been suggesting a backdoor cold front
arrival into our eastern zones from the east. However, the models
have been trending toward a bit of a slower, shallower, and less
forceful push of this cooler air up against our SACs and Guads.
Thus expect little to no cooling for Sunday, based on little to no
intrusion. The models are also vacillating back and forth on some
east slope precip with this feature for Sunday, but based on the
minimal forcing, minimal moisture, and minimal depth of the
airmass, we are thinking only a bank of low clouds dammed up
against the central mountain chain of NM.

Monday and Tuesday of next week looks to bring a sharper shortwave
disturbance, followed by an open trough across the region. These
two features look to tighten gradients at all levels and induce a
deeper mixing depth for mixdown of winds aloft. Thus we are
starting to see hints of stronger and gustier winds both
afternoons, which would further trend fire weather conditions
toward Critical levels. Thus, be watching for us to possibly start
messaging that, and possibly issue early products. Still to early
to bite on this now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW250. Winds will be gusty
through sunset at most TAF sites, but should begin to diminish
thereafter with speeds AOB 10 knots. By around 20z tomorrow, gusty
winds will return. Direction will generally be SW to W (240-270
with occasional shift to 300 at some sites).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

For now through the end of the weekend, we will stay under a
fairly static pattern, with slow change from flat high pressure
over the region to a flat pattern. This will mean fair weather,
with plenty of sunshine. Very dry conditions, with single- digit
MinRH, warm temperatures, with highs 10-15 degrees warmer than
normal. Basically Elevated fire weather conditions.

As the pattern flattens and become more zonal, we will see deep
alignment of westerly wind, minor surface troughing, and minor
ripples/waves in the flow aloft that will spur some daytime mixing
of increased winds aloft. This will mean occasionally and
marginally breezy conditions. These moderate winds, coupled with
the warm and dry environment, compounded by the lack of precip and
ongoing drought, and marked by dry fuels, will keep fire weather
conditions elevated through at least Sunday. MinRh will be in the
8-15 percent range during this time. Temperatures will be 10-15
degrees warmer than normal. Westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
possible, with gusts to 30 mph. We will likely approach RFW
criteria these two days, if the models keep the winds up.

Monday and Tuesday of next week looks to bring a sharper shortwave
disturbance, followed by an open trough across the region. These
two features look to tighten gradients at all levels and induce a
deeper mixing depth for mixdown of winds aloft. Thus we are
starting to see hints of stronger and gustier winds both
afternoons, which would further trend fire weather conditions
toward Critical levels. However, temperatures will be a bit
cooler, although still warmer than normal. But that means a slight
bump upward in RH...so we will be out of single-digit minRH
territory and back into the teens and 20 percent range. Thus, this
far out, it is tough to know for sure, if we will see RFW
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  44  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            44  78  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               37  76  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               37  75  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               36  55  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    36  76  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              38  69  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   34  78  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                32  75  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       46  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                35  80  37  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             42  83  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               45  71  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   42  81  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             39  75  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           47  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            35  75  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    33  79  34  82 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 39  80  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                39  75  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  40  70  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                36  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 35  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  27  70  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                37  76  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                31  75  32  78 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             34  68  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   33  73  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    25  76  23  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               34  70  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  39  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   34  80  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  34  79  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           38  81  38  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  73  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown