Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
848 FXUS64 KEPZ 060359 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 959 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 957 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026 - Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday, though limited mostly to areas east of the Rio Grande Valley. - Drier and warmer on Sunday through Wednesday with many lowland areas seeing their first 100 degree days of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 959 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Upper low currently over the Big Bend and drifting slowly northeast. Wrap around mid/upper level moisture covers most of the CWA. Decent instability and surface moisture have allowed isolated thunderstorms much of the afternoon in one wave that dissipated in the south. A second wave of convection is flaring up over Sierra and Otero Counties this evening, with strong outflow ahead of it. HRRR has been consistent with this, bringing it down to the Las Cruces-El Paso corridor around 04Z-05Z. T or C and the Spaceport have both reported wind gusts of 50-65 mph. Expect winds to diminish some as they travel south, but 40-50 mph gusts still possible Dona Ana, Luna, and El Paso Counties over the next 3 hours. A few thunderstorms may also fire off along the leading edge of the outflow. Hi-res models have been pretty consistent in ending convection by 07Z-08Z. Saturday through Monday...ramping down of thunderstorm activity still on schedule. Upper low moves over the Texas Panhandle Saturday. A bit of residual moisture over the Sacrament Mtns could lead to a few thunderstorms there. Otherwise this period should remain dry as an upper ridge eventually builds in behind the exiting trough, and combined with rapidly warming 850mb temps, will push lowland highs to around 100-103 by Sunday. Tuesday through Friday...quite a bit of model uncertainty for this period, especially Thursday and Friday. Sub-tropical high builds in across the Gulf of America and Texas to New Mexico. Both GFS/ECMWF similar here with drawing some sub-tropical moisture up around the high. Isolated mountain storms can`t be ruled out completely so grids show this. Sub-tropical ridge becomes much stronger with the ECMWF so that moisture advection Thursday/Friday slows to a trickle. The GFS on the other hand keeps the spigot fully open both days with thunderstorms likely. Kept the drier ECMWF solution for now but will have to keep watching for model consistency. Temperatures will remain above normal, with more triple digit heat for much of the lowlands. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 SCT090 SCT-BKN150 BKN-OVC250. Isolated BKN060CB 4-6SM -TSRA with thunderstorms mainly done by 07Z. Surface winds variable 6-10 knots. Strong, gusty storm outflow developed in Sierra County and rapidly spread south across Dona Ana and Luna Counties on the way to El Paso County. Wind gusts of 25 to 40 knots will accompany this outflow as it spreads out across Luna, Dona Ana, and El Paso Counties. These winds and isolated thunderstorms should be mostly dissipated by around 07Z-08Z. Isolated thunderstorms could develop again after 18Z Saturday but likely limited to the Sacramento Mtns. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1019 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Today will be the last day of widespread thunderstorm chances as moisture begins exiting the area. Min RH values will be in the lower teens toward the AZ border with upper 30s to lower 40s across Hudspeth County and into the Sacramento Mountains. By Saturday, areas west of the Rio Grande drop into the lower and mid teens while areas east hold onto the 20s. This will lead to poor overnight recoveries Saturday night, and by Sunday afternoon, all areas except the highest elevations will have afternoon min RH values near 10% while highs top out up to 5 degrees above normal, increasing more for Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will also be confined to easterly areas on Saturday with all areas staying dry on Sunday. Winds will remain light throughout the period, staying under 10 MPH during the afternoon. Vent rates will range poor east to excellent west today. Western areas will improve a category to fair on Saturday with all areas ranging very good to excellent on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 95 71 99 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 87 60 93 / 30 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 94 65 96 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 91 67 96 / 30 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 45 70 47 75 / 40 20 10 0 Truth or Consequences 63 94 67 95 / 30 10 10 0 Silver City 53 89 58 87 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 60 96 65 98 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 95 62 94 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 94 70 97 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 58 89 59 97 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 96 65 100 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 86 63 90 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 61 96 66 100 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 94 66 96 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 93 74 97 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 93 63 96 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 61 97 64 99 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 64 97 70 97 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 90 61 95 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 80 53 87 / 40 40 10 10 Mescalero 49 80 52 84 / 40 20 10 0 Timberon 46 75 49 81 / 30 30 0 0 Winston 53 87 56 87 / 30 10 10 0 Hillsboro 61 92 65 93 / 30 10 0 0 Spaceport 56 93 60 95 / 30 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 46 90 45 88 / 20 10 0 0 Hurley 56 91 60 90 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 48 96 45 94 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 44 91 41 89 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 58 91 61 90 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 61 95 61 94 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 60 94 62 94 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 93 62 93 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 88 59 88 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner