Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
638 FXUS64 KEPZ 021154 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 454 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 452 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 - Dry conditions and warmer temperatures through Tuesday, with breezy afternoon winds today. - A backdoor cold front will bring breezy to windy east winds and cooler air Wednesday and Thursday. - The dry conditions look to continue Friday and Saturday, warming back up to above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 826 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 A few weeks ago we had a blocking pattern characterized by an upper level low south of an upper level ridge. That pattern kept our weather pretty stagnant for five days, and it looks like a similar pattern will develop this week. Currently an upper level ridge is centered over New Mexico, but that ridge will quickly push off to the east by Monday afternoon as a short wave trough rides the ridge`s coat tails. The short wave trough will give us some off and on breezy warm west winds. The winds will help warm our temperatures 3 to 8 degrees above average. By Tuesday afternoon, an upper level trough will develop off the coast of the Baja of Mexico and to the north along the central California coast, an upper level ridge will develop. This rex block pattern will be in no hurry to move off. The rex block will keep us dry through Friday as the storm track will be pushed way to the north. Jumping back to Tuesday, our high temperatures on that will continue to run several degree above average, but late Tuesday and into Wednesday, we will see a decent back door cold front push across the region from the east to the west. The front will be dry and it will usher in cooler air into the region. High temperatures on Wednesday, will run 5 degrees below average east of the Rio Grande and a few degrees above average west of the river. Winds behind the front will be breezy to almost windy especially along the west slopes of area mountains. On Thursday, the high temperatures will be about the same as Wednesday`s highs. For Friday, the rex block finally breaks down as a strong upper level trough approaches the west coast. Initially we will see very little impact from the west coast upper level trough, as it will creep oh so slowly to the east. High temperatures for Friday through next Sunday will continue to run 2 to 7 degrees above average. After a two week stretch of dry weather the extended models are beginning to hint at a return to some precipitation chances for the end of next weekend as the west coast trough begins to move in our direction. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions through the period with increasing SCT180 BKN- OVC250. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, increasing to west 10-15G25 knots this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 452 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 Dry southwest flow today and Tuesday will result in higher clouds and well above normal temperatures. A disturbance aloft in this flow will also bring breezy afternoon winds today as it moves through. Winds aloft turn northwest Wednesday and Thursday, still dry, but ushering in a cool front and cooler temperatures (back around normal), along with breezy east winds. Next Pacific trough will rotate through the fire zones Friday and Saturday, bringing in more clouds and temperatures back to well above normal. Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Saturday. Mountains 20-30% Gila/Black Range through Saturday; Sacramento Mtns 25-40% through Saturday. Vent rates fair-good this afternoon, and again on Wednesday; poor-fair all other days through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 68 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 60 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 38 64 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 35 63 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 48 25 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 38 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 63 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 39 68 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 38 66 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 66 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 33 61 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 41 68 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 59 38 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 41 68 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 40 66 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 43 65 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 35 65 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 38 68 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 36 63 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 29 59 27 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 28 58 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 32 55 29 48 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 61 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 39 65 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 35 65 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 64 25 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 36 64 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 23 70 24 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 21 67 20 64 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 63 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 41 67 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 66 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 66 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 63 41 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner