027
FXUS64 KEPZ 092100
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Warm and dry weather will be the norm for the upcoming week with
just a couple of breezy days Tuesday and Friday expected. High
temperatures for the work week will generally be in the 70s for
the lowlands with a few lower 80s possible by Friday. The next
storm system looks to start affecting the region next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

As powerful storm system that affected the Rockies moves towards
the Great Lakes, upper flow over the Borderland starts to turn
more WSW. This will help to warm temperatures back above normal by
Monday and continue through much of the work week.

Not much to talk about through Monday with the warming temps and
light winds. Models have come into line with handling of next
trough moving across the Rockies Tue. Previous run of the GFS had
cutoff low off Baja remaining out that way as trough with the main
flow moved through then the cutoff lifted up and brought precip to
the region midweek. Now the GFS looks like the EC with the cutoff
being phased with the main flow and no moisture to work with as it
moves through. The only impacts from this system will be a low end
breezy day Tue and a subtle cool down for Wed. Highs will
generally be in the 70s during this time with overnight lows
cooling down into the 30s to lower 40s.

The next Pacific storm system starts to move onshore late Thu and
increases the southwest flow over the region. Temperatures will
again rebound with some lower 80s possible by Friday for the lower
elevations. EC supports these warm temperatures as well as
ensemble means. NBM temps looked a few degrees too cool during
this time and raised them up.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 925 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

P6SM SKC with light and variable winds through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Warm and dry conditions will be the norm for much of the next
week. High temperatures by Monday will start to reach the 70s for
most of the lowlands with some lower 80s possible by Friday. RH`s
will be in the teens through Wednesday with some 20s out east by
the end of the week. Winds will get a little breezy Tuesday but
will remain below critical thresholds. Vent rates will be poor to
low end fair Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  38  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            41  70  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               34  69  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               32  69  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               29  53  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    36  65  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              38  67  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   31  70  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                33  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       37  70  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                31  73  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             32  74  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               34  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   34  72  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             35  69  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           37  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            29  69  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    30  71  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 37  70  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                35  66  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  36  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                30  61  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 31  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  26  63  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                31  65  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                29  66  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             22  68  25  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   28  66  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    26  70  29  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               24  67  27  68 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  31  68  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   33  74  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  29  71  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           36  73  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               39  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz