Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
400 FXUS64 KEPZ 212333 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 533 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 443 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Drier air has moved into the region and that will limit our thunderstorm chances to the Gila Region this afternoon. - For Friday through Monday, we will have limited storm chances in the Gila Region with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. - Moisture increases on Tuesday, with storm chances rebounding for much of next week. - Daily high temperatures will stay a few degrees above average through the weekend then high temperatures will trend a little below average for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 The drier air is here. Water vapor satellite images indicate that a plume of dry air was moving into the region. The precipitable water value (PW) on this morning`s balloon sounding dropped from yesterday`s 1.28 to 1.01 and even drier air will be pushing into the region today. The reason for the dry air intrusion, is the circulation associated with the an area of upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners region. The clockwise circulation around this ridge is pulling drier continental air into the area and pushing much of our moisture south and west of us. The Gila region may have enough moisture for a few thunderstorms this afternoon, but the rest of the area looks to stay rain free. The upper level ridge will not move much and stay anchored over the Four Corners area, so that will continue to keep a steady stream of dry air flowing in, which will continue to limit or even eliminate our rain chances through the weekend. High temperatures during this time will run a few degrees above average. On Monday the upper level ridge will pack up its bags and start on a journey. By Monday afternoon the upper level ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico. A ridge aloft is not helpful for thunderstorms, so Monday is looking like a down day, thunderstorm wise as well. By Tuesday, the upper level ridge will finish its journey and be centered over east Texas. This time the clockwise circulation around the ridge will begin to move moisture from northern Mexico into the region. Our PW values this weekend will be well below an inch, but by Tuesday and into Wednesday, we will see PW values well above 1 inch. Rain chances will return to the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday along with some risk of isolated flash flooding. With the increase in moisture, clouds and rain chances, we will see our high temperatures trend a few degrees below average. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 VMC through forecast period. Minimal TS activity tonight and tomorrow across S NM a W TX. Skies SKC-FEW100 overnight with surface winds 090-130 at 5 to 10 knots. Light SE flow again tomorrow with dry conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 927 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Drier air has pushed into the region which will limit our thunderstorm chances to the Gila region this afternoon. The dry weather will continue through Monday. Winds will be light from the east or southeast today through the weekend. Min RH`s today will be in the 20`s in the lowlands and in the 30`s in the mountains, but by Saturday, our min RH`s will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area mountains. Moisture and rain chances look to return to the forecast by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 89 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 67 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 70 48 70 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 69 92 69 92 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 63 87 63 87 / 20 20 0 10 Deming 68 96 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 95 69 95 / 20 10 0 10 West El Paso Metro 73 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 65 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 64 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 91 67 92 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 68 94 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 69 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 90 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 80 53 81 / 0 10 0 10 Mescalero 53 81 53 82 / 10 10 0 10 Timberon 52 78 52 79 / 0 10 0 0 Winston 57 86 57 86 / 30 10 0 10 Hillsboro 64 92 64 92 / 30 10 0 10 Spaceport 67 91 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 88 58 88 / 30 30 10 20 Hurley 64 90 63 90 / 20 10 0 10 Cliff 66 95 66 95 / 30 20 10 10 Mule Creek 63 90 64 91 / 40 30 10 20 Faywood 65 88 64 89 / 20 10 0 10 Animas 67 95 66 95 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 66 93 65 93 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 89 64 89 / 0 10 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt