Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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736 FXUS64 KEPZ 221702 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1002 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1001 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Dry and mild weather through the middle of next week, temperatures expected to warm to well above normal by this weekend. - Light winds expected through Saturday, then low end breezy conditions expected in the lowlands and breezy conditions in mountain areas expected through Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 Quiet weather is expected to continue over the Borderland through at least the end of next week. An analysis of IR satellite this morning shows mostly clear skies leading to good radiational cooling across the area with the lowlands expected to be at or below freezing before sunrise. The exception will be portions of the El Paso Metro due to the urban heat island effect will likely remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Models continue show the quasi-stationary UL low off the coast of Pacific Northwest meandering through Sunday before moving southeastward sometime Sunday night and dissipating along the trough axis over northern Nevada on Monday. A UL ridge over the Pacific, which influence continues to keep dry and mild conditions over the Borderland, will be pushed southward allowing for zonal flow to setup over the area. The ridge will flatten in response to the trough pushing east southeast across the Rockies on Sunday. Temperatures today will be roughly 5 to 7 degrees above climatological normals across the Borderland. As we head into the weekend, high temperatures will continue to warm to well above normal values with forecast highs on Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday coming within 2 to 3 degree of tying records at El Paso on those days. The caveat that is working against any potential for tying the records on Tuesday and Wednesday will be low end breezy conditions at times both Tuesday and Wednesday along with mid and high level cloudiness associated with a frontal boundary. The aforementioned boundary will only bring some cloudiness to the area on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the front will likely pass just north of the Borderland. For friday, UL ridging sets back up over the Borderland with continued dry weather and mild conditions with light winds expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 P6SM SKC once a few high clouds move out early this afternoon. Winds will remain variable under 08KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1241 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 Low fire concerns continue as high pressure will persist through the period. Low RH values approaching single digit values will lead to a slightly elevated fire weather conditions today over the Gila region, but light winds will mitigate most of the threat. For this weekend, expect Min RH values in the low to mid teens through the weekend with light winds, then climbing into the upper teens to lower 20s early next week. Vent rates will be poor today, then range from poor to good Saturday. The vent rates will range from fair to very good on Sunday, then poor to good on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 70 43 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 41 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 36 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 66 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 33 52 36 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 65 36 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 68 41 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 34 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 33 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 43 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 69 33 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 63 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 69 36 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 66 36 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 67 43 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 66 32 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 31 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 66 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 63 36 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 70 38 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 64 35 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 62 34 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 65 29 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 36 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 66 30 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 71 36 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 68 35 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 76 25 76 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 70 36 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 67 37 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 72 35 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 69 32 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 71 37 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 72 46 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz