Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
705
FXUS64 KEPZ 240450
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1050 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for heavy rainfall with localized flooding continues
next few days. Flood watches are in effect through Wednesday for
the Rio Grande Valley east.
- Showers/thunderstorms widespread over the entire area through
Friday, becoming more isolated Saturday and Sunday. Moisture
peaks on Tuesday, with the highest chances of heavy rainfall and
flooding through Wednesday.
- Clouds and rain will help keep temperatures below normal
through the weekend ahead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 920 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Our beginning phase of the Monsoon will continue and solidify
over the next week. The wettest portion within this period looks
to be Tuesday and Wednesday. PWs both days will range from 1.00
inch northern CWA to 1.60 inch in the southeast (some 200% of
normal). Thus Flood Watch in effect for the Rio Grande Valley east
will continue through Wednesday. Not much in the way of upper
dynamics over the next several days, so will have to rely on the
copious, deep layered moisture, modest instability, and
outflow/gust front interaction. Unfortunately this means
forecasting areas of heavy rain will be more on the short fuse
timing. Another wildcard is the amount of overnight cloud cover.
Extensive cloud cover in the morning inhibits surface heating,
which in turn would minimize some of the heavier rain/flooding.
Moisture does start slowly diminishing after Wednesday, but
Thursday through Saturday still look to have widespread coverage,
with flood potential likely decreasing. By Sunday and Monday, high
pressure begins to build over western New Mexico and Arizona, but
even then can`t completely eliminate precip chances. Temperatures
for the entire period should remain below normal due to
clouds/rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 920 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
BKN-OVC080 BKN200. Isolated OVC040CB 3-5SM TSRA with wind gusts
of 35-45 knots. Thunderstorms mostly dissipating by around 06Z but
showers continuing through most of the night. Thunderstorms
developing again after 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Overall fire weather concerns are trending down due to an influx
of monsoon moisture into the region. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase Tuesday with the best chances of storms
Tuesday evening/night east of the Gila towards the Rio Grand
Valley. Trout fire burn scar will be on the edge of the area of
highest probability for heavy rainfall so it will be closely
monitored. Highest chances of any flooding should peak during this
time with thunderstorm activity decreasing in coverage through
the end of the week. Key point to remember with regards to the
Trout Fire burn scar is that it will not take much rainfall to
cause flooding and debris flows. Showers and storms moving over
some of the same areas will make them more prone to flooding
impacts with more runoff.
NWS ABQ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 86 71 84 / 80 90 90 80
Sierra Blanca 66 84 65 82 / 70 80 70 60
Las Cruces 68 82 66 81 / 70 80 90 80
Alamogordo 67 84 63 80 / 80 90 90 80
Cloudcroft 51 62 48 60 / 80 90 90 90
Truth or Consequences 70 83 66 83 / 40 80 80 90
Silver City 61 81 59 81 / 40 80 70 80
Deming 70 87 67 87 / 60 80 80 80
Lordsburg 66 88 66 89 / 50 60 60 60
West El Paso Metro 73 84 71 82 / 70 90 90 80
Dell City 69 85 68 83 / 80 80 70 60
Fort Hancock 71 88 71 86 / 80 80 80 70
Loma Linda 66 78 64 76 / 80 90 80 70
Fabens 71 87 68 83 / 80 80 80 70
Santa Teresa 70 83 68 81 / 70 90 90 80
White Sands HQ 72 82 70 81 / 70 90 90 80
Jornada Range 67 82 64 81 / 70 90 90 80
Hatch 68 85 66 84 / 50 90 80 90
Columbus 71 87 69 87 / 70 70 80 80
Orogrande 68 81 66 79 / 70 90 90 80
Mayhill 55 72 54 70 / 70 100 80 90
Mescalero 54 72 53 70 / 70 100 80 90
Timberon 52 68 50 66 / 80 90 80 90
Winston 55 76 53 76 / 50 90 70 90
Hillsboro 63 82 60 81 / 50 90 80 90
Spaceport 66 82 62 80 / 50 90 80 90
Lake Roberts 57 82 56 83 / 30 80 70 80
Hurley 63 83 61 83 / 40 80 70 80
Cliff 63 89 63 90 / 30 60 50 60
Mule Creek 59 87 60 88 / 10 40 40 40
Faywood 64 82 63 81 / 50 90 80 80
Animas 66 88 66 89 / 50 70 60 60
Hachita 66 86 65 87 / 70 80 80 70
Antelope Wells 65 87 63 87 / 70 80 80 70
Cloverdale 64 84 63 86 / 50 80 70 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
NM...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West
Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner