613
FXUS64 KEPZ 082331
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
531 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

-  Dry and hot weather pattern will only slowly loosen its drip
   heading into the weekend, with triple digit lowland high
   temperatures continuing. Heat Advisories remain in effect for
   El Paso and the Lower Valley through Saturday.

-  Weaker showers and thunderstorms will be focused mainly over
   the higher terrain of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains
   this afternoon and evening, and will be mostly dry.

-  Thunderstorm chances will increase on Saturday, with gusty
   winds and blowing dust possible as they move from the mountains
   in to the lowlands, where moisture will have only increased
   moderately.

-  Thunderstorms with better rain chances arrive Sunday and
   Monday as upper level disturbances take advantage of recycled
   moisture over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

The sprawling subtropical ridge still dominates the area today,
though the center has shifted to the eastern NM/TX border. This
afternoon looks to be very similar to yesterday, with scattered
weak convection, including dry thunder in the higher terrain of
the Gila and Sacramentos unable to survive the trek into the
lowlands, where dewpoints look to mix-out into the lower-30s by
the afternoon. Slightly deeper convection will be possible in the
southern NM Bootheel, on the fringes of slightly more favorable
moisture seeping in from the Sierra Madres.

The ridge will become more poorly defined tomorrow, allowing for
more recycled mid-level moisture to undercut it, along with some
cooler air aloft. The northerly branch of the jet stream will also
be nosing into the Four Corners region, with broad diffluence
across the region tomorrow. At the surface, a moderate Gulf Surge
over southern Arizona will result in westerly flow over SE AZ, and
this will push higher (~40s) dewpoints into far SW New Mexico in
the afternoon, particularly in the Bootheel (~50s). South-Central
NM will still see dewpoints mix-down into the 30s again.

The overall result will be an uptick in convection over the higher
terrain Saturday afternoon, with storms dropping into the
lowlands. There will be enough drier air still around for gusty
outflows, and probably a round of blowing dust for Lordsburg
Playa. Outflow-modified air may even try to cough up scattered
storms in south-central NM and Far West Texas in the evening.

That more active northern jet is the result of troughing across
the northern and central Rockies, which will send a shortwave
trough into northern and eastern New Mexico on Sunday. Along with
recycled and re-distributed moisture from Saturday`s convection,
this will help increase convection coverage across the area Sunday
afternoon and evening, including the lowlands. With lowland
dewpoints still modest (40s), expect gusty winds and some patchy
blowing dust as well.

Heading into Monday, the subtropical ridge will be split by the
trough, at this point over central Texas. Northerly flow aloft
will prevail, which often raises a flag for "spicier" convection
(somewhat stronger and often more organized) due to increased
wind shear and cooler air aloft. Coarser-scale models may be
underdoing convection a bit, given decent leftover moisture in the
area, 500 mb temps dropping from -4 to -8C, and diffluent flow
high aloft. 0-6km shear looks to increase to 20 to 30 knots in the
afternoon, peaking around 35 knots over Sierra County early in the
evening. It`s almost like we`re trying to repeat June -- hot hot
heat, followed by a spike in convection with an atypical northerly
flow aloft.

Tuesday, some drier air aloft tries to work into the area,
diminishing QPF, but I wouldn`t write it off yet. A lot will
depend on how quickly any convective debris clears out of the
area. Given the stronger mid-level flow, we might be able to
recover instability assuming the dry air advection aloft isn`t
too much.

Later in the week, easterly flow aloft looks to return, followed
by a more classic monsoon moisture plume setting up, but it may
favor western areas at least initially.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW130/250 with FEW-SCT130 more
likely after 18z Aug 9. Winds will be light and variable
throughout the period. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected to begin
the mountains around 18z before moving into the lowlands after
20z, but confidence of impacts and timing at any given TAF site is
too low to warrant mention in TAFs at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Expect another round of scattered, weak convection over the higher
terrain this afternoon, with a risk of dry lightning strikes and
gusty winds amid lower RH values (10-15%). Thunderstorm coverage
looks to increase on Saturday, with only a modest increase in
moisture. This will increase the risk of dry lightning strikes and
gusty outflow winds across the area, including into the lowlands.

Moisture will slowly begin to increase Sunday onwards, with better
chances for thunderstorms with wetting rainfall, and improved
overnight RH recovery. The most active days look to be Sunday and
Monday as cooler air aloft and and upper level shortwave trough
help enhance thunderstorm coverage and organization.

Towards the weekend, a more typical monsoon moisture plume looks
to set up, but it looks to favor areas west of the Divide and
perhaps more into SE Arizona.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 105  77 105  77 /   0  10  20  30
Sierra Blanca            99  67  99  69 /   0  10  20  20
Las Cruces              101  70 100  71 /   0  10  30  40
Alamogordo              102  73 100  72 /  10  10  20  30
Cloudcroft               80  57  78  56 /  20  20  40  40
Truth or Consequences   102  73 100  72 /  10  10  30  40
Silver City              96  67  94  64 /  20  20  40  40
Deming                  103  70 104  70 /  10  10  30  40
Lordsburg               102  70 100  69 /  10  10  40  40
West El Paso Metro      102  75 101  77 /   0  10  20  30
Dell City               103  70 102  71 /   0  10  30  40
Fort Hancock            103  73 103  74 /   0  10  20  20
Loma Linda               97  70  95  70 /   0  10  20  30
Fabens                  102  72 102  73 /   0  10  20  30
Santa Teresa            101  72 100  73 /   0  10  20  30
White Sands HQ          103  75 102  76 /   0  10  40  40
Jornada Range           101  70 100  72 /   0  10  30  40
Hatch                   104  71 103  72 /  10  10  30  40
Columbus                103  73 102  74 /   0  10  30  30
Orogrande               100  70  99  72 /  10  10  20  30
Mayhill                  91  62  89  61 /  20  20  50  50
Mescalero                90  62  89  60 /  20  20  30  30
Timberon                 88  59  86  58 /  20  10  50  50
Winston                  94  62  91  60 /  20  20  40  40
Hillsboro               101  69  99  67 /  20  20  40  40
Spaceport               101  70 100  69 /   0  10  30  30
Lake Roberts             97  62  94  59 /  20  20  50  40
Hurley                   98  67  97  65 /  20  20  40  40
Cliff                   103  68 101  66 /  20  20  40  40
Mule Creek               99  67  97  64 /  20  20  40  40
Faywood                  98  69  96  67 /  20  20  40  40
Animas                  102  69 100  70 /  10  20  40  40
Hachita                 101  69 100  69 /  10  10  40  40
Antelope Wells          100  68  99  68 /  10  20  40  40
Cloverdale               95  65  94  65 /  20  20  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown