Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
893 FXUS64 KEPZ 021850 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1250 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 - Thunderstorm chances expected each afternoon through Friday with abundant moisture in place. - Gusty outflow winds, flooding, and even some hail possible this afternoon with storms. Flooding from storms possible Wednesday and Thursday. - Rapid warmup Sunday and early next week where El Paso could see it`s first triple digit of the year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Weak main lobe of low pressure is spinning off the coast of SoCal, but closer to home a shortwave associated with the low will help bring an active thunderstorm day today. Above average moisture has pushed into the area with PWs of 0.8"-1.0" generally along and east of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). This will be the main action zone this afternoon with some storms possible in the Gila region. Main concern today will be damaging/severe wind gusts of 58+ mph possible near thunderstorms. CAMs are also suggesting a fairly large outflow from storm activity out east that will spread westward earlier tonight around 5-7PM. The outflow looks to cross the El Paso metro, Las Cruces and even into the Deming area tonight. In addition, DCAPEs are quite impressive with SPC Mesoanalysis page suggesting 1500-1700 J/kg over the next few hours confirming the threat for damaging wind gusts possible. Abundant moisture and a south to north trajectory of storms east of the RGV could spell flooding issues as well. Some hail is also possible. More areawide storm coverage tomorrow with just a bit better moisture with PWs increasing to around 0.9"-1.0" tomorrow. Hi-res models are illustrating the initial storm activity beginning early in the afternoon with two waves of thunderstorms developing (northern portion of the CWA, mostly the mountains) that will then spread southward, and then another wave of storms that develops in Mexico that drifts northward before eventually meeting the northern cluster. Another round of thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon as a juicy atmosphere is still expected to be in place with PWs still above average, at 0.9"-1.0". Still generally lacking good shear for severe weather through Thursday but far southern Hudspeth county could have enough ingredients for severe weather tomorrow. By Friday, decent moisture looks to still be in the area but will be on the decrease through the day and into the weekend with drier conditions. Storm activity possible in the area mountains and far eastern locations of the CWA on Saturday afternoon but chances dwindle even more for Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Thunderstorms will continue to pop up this afternoon. Much of the activity will be over the area mountains and along and east of the Rio Grande. Biggest threat will be gusty outflow winds with some storms having the potential to have severe wind gusts (58+ mph). Storms will have the potential to be efficient rain makers which could create reductions in visibilities. KELP has the best chances to see storms like this but recent hi-res models suggest storms to stay further east of terminals. Models are also suggesting a large outflow to track east to west around 5-7PM tonight that will push through KELP, KLRU and even KDMN tonight. Storm activity will push eastward and out of the area, with storm chances diminishing && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1241 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 Abundant moisture will shift westward tonight allowing for the best coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow and perhaps into Thursday. Min RHs both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon will be above critical thresholds at 20-40% in the lowlands and 40-50% in the area mountains. Flooding from storms will continue to be possible both days. Heading into Friday, good moisture will still be overhead but will be less than Wed/Thu. Critical min RHs along and west of the Continental Divide expected Friday afternoon with the rest of the area seeing RHs 20-30% in the lowlands and 45-50% in the mountains. We will enter a drier period of weather this weekend with critical min RHs returning. The Sacramento Mtns has a chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon but elsewhere should be dry that afternoon. Looking dry on Sunday with a rapid rebound in temperatures. Critical min RHs west of the Rio Grande Saturday but critical RHs spread across the lowlands Sunday with near critical min RHs in the mountains of 20-25%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 91 67 89 / 20 30 40 20 Sierra Blanca 60 84 58 83 / 60 40 50 40 Las Cruces 61 89 59 87 / 10 30 40 20 Alamogordo 61 87 61 86 / 40 30 30 30 Cloudcroft 46 65 45 65 / 60 60 30 70 Truth or Consequences 62 87 62 86 / 40 40 40 30 Silver City 56 83 54 82 / 0 60 30 60 Deming 62 93 59 91 / 0 40 50 20 Lordsburg 63 90 60 90 / 0 30 40 20 West El Paso Metro 68 89 65 88 / 20 30 40 20 Dell City 60 85 59 86 / 60 30 40 30 Fort Hancock 66 92 64 91 / 40 40 40 30 Loma Linda 61 82 59 81 / 30 30 40 30 Fabens 65 92 63 91 / 20 40 40 10 Santa Teresa 63 88 61 87 / 10 30 40 20 White Sands HQ 69 88 68 87 / 30 30 40 20 Jornada Range 62 88 60 86 / 20 50 60 20 Hatch 62 91 61 90 / 20 40 50 20 Columbus 67 92 63 91 / 0 20 30 20 Orogrande 61 85 60 84 / 40 20 40 20 Mayhill 51 74 51 75 / 70 60 50 80 Mescalero 50 75 49 75 / 60 60 30 70 Timberon 48 71 47 71 / 60 40 50 60 Winston 52 79 51 79 / 20 70 40 50 Hillsboro 61 86 60 84 / 20 60 40 40 Spaceport 58 87 58 86 / 30 50 60 20 Lake Roberts 53 84 51 84 / 10 80 40 70 Hurley 57 86 54 84 / 0 40 30 50 Cliff 57 91 56 90 / 0 60 30 50 Mule Creek 55 87 54 86 / 0 50 20 50 Faywood 59 85 57 83 / 10 40 40 40 Animas 61 91 59 91 / 0 30 30 20 Hachita 62 90 58 89 / 0 40 50 20 Antelope Wells 61 91 59 90 / 0 20 30 20 Cloverdale 58 87 56 86 / 0 20 20 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher