Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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441 FXUS64 KEPZ 092323 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 423 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 Warm and dry weather will be the norm for the upcoming week with just a couple of breezy days Tuesday and Friday expected. High temperatures for the work week will generally be in the 70s for the lowlands with a few lower 80s possible by Friday. The next storm system looks to start affecting the region next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 As powerful storm system that affected the Rockies moves towards the Great Lakes, upper flow over the Borderland starts to turn more WSW. This will help to warm temperatures back above normal by Monday and continue through much of the work week. Not much to talk about through Monday with the warming temps and light winds. Models have come into line with handling of next trough moving across the Rockies Tue. Previous run of the GFS had cutoff low off Baja remaining out that way as trough with the main flow moved through then the cutoff lifted up and brought precip to the region midweek. Now the GFS looks like the EC with the cutoff being phased with the main flow and no moisture to work with as it moves through. The only impacts from this system will be a low end breezy day Tue and a subtle cool down for Wed. Highs will generally be in the 70s during this time with overnight lows cooling down into the 30s to lower 40s. The next Pacific storm system starts to move onshore late Thu and increases the southwest flow over the region. Temperatures will again rebound with some lower 80s possible by Friday for the lower elevations. EC supports these warm temperatures as well as ensemble means. NBM temps looked a few degrees too cool during this time and raised them up. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 422 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with light winds through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 Warm and dry conditions will be the norm for much of the next week. High temperatures by Monday will start to reach the 70s for most of the lowlands with some lower 80s possible by Friday. RH`s will be in the teens through Wednesday with some 20s out east by the end of the week. Winds will get a little breezy Tuesday but will remain below critical thresholds. Vent rates will be poor to low end fair Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 38 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 41 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 34 69 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 32 69 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 53 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 36 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 31 70 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 33 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 37 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 31 73 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 32 74 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 34 65 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 34 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 35 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 37 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 29 69 32 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 30 71 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 37 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 35 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 36 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 30 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 31 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 26 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 31 65 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 29 66 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 22 68 25 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 28 66 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 26 70 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 24 67 27 68 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 31 68 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 33 74 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 29 71 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 36 73 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 39 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...01-Barham