Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
386 FXUS64 KEPZ 290437 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1037 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1031 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026 - Storm chances will be limited mostly along and west of the Continental Divide over the weekend. A slight uptick in storm chances for Monday, then drier. - Above normal temperatures through next week, with lowland highs in the mid 90s to 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026 As the monsoon high shifts over the southern Plains this weekend, drier air will filter in from the east. PWs fall to about 1" for the lowlands on Sat and closer to 0.9" on Sun. Mainly dry conditions are forecast both days with low-medium storm chances favoring area mtns and west of the Divide (moisture plume concentrated over E AZ). Brief downpours and gusty winds are the primary threats as prevailing winds will be light from the S-SE. Global ensemble means still show the upper high stretching from the southern Plains to the Carolinas from Mon onward with troughing over the West Coast. A modest increase in storm coverage is forecast for Mon as PWs rise to about 1.1" with slight rain chances in the lowlands. Western areas will again be favored for storms on Mon as the moisture plume inches eastward. Models are showing the upper high focusing over the Carolinas/TN Valley into midweek, weakening the moisture plume in our region and providing little if any forcing. Low mtn storm chances are forecast Tue-Thu with mainly dry conditions for the lowlands. The high then looks to centralize over the southern Plains again late in the week and reinvigorate the moisture plume a bit, but there are more significant model differences. Areas to the north and west appear best set up for storm chances to end the period. Temps will be steady through next week with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs of 95-100F are forecast each day. Winds remain light through midweek, shifting more W by Mon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mainly clear through AM. Saturday afternoon`s convection should be confined to the high terrain with the best chance of storms for KTCS (10-20%). A stray shower cannot be ruled out for the other TAF sites around 21z. Winds AOB 8kts from S-SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026 Scattered (40-60% coverage) showers and thunderstorms over Gila/Lincoln forests this afternoon. Recent rains over LNF will heighten the risk of flash flooding this afternoon. Sudden, erratic wind gusts are possible near all storms. Gusts up to 50 mph will be possible, so caution is recommended near fire lines. Rain chances expected to end quickly this evening, likely by sunset with dry conditions overnight into Saturday. Storm chances will be more limited to Gila NF over the weekend, as moisture shifts west of the Continental Divide. Min RH 25-35% with good overnight recoveries (60-80%). Wind will be out of the south 5 to 10 mph on Saturday, leading to Fair vent rates. Winds shifting to the southwest on Sunday, with Good vent rates. Next week looks warm with storm coverage decreasing. Can`t rule out isolated (20-30% coverage) afternoon showers over the high elevations, but most of the region will be dry in early September. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 100 75 100 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 94 66 96 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 70 99 70 99 / 0 10 0 10 Alamogordo 69 98 71 99 / 10 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 51 74 53 75 / 10 30 10 10 Truth or Consequences 71 98 73 97 / 20 10 10 10 Silver City 65 92 64 90 / 10 10 10 30 Deming 70 100 70 99 / 10 10 10 20 Lordsburg 71 99 70 96 / 10 10 10 50 West El Paso Metro 77 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 69 98 69 100 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 102 73 104 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 68 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 72 100 72 101 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 98 72 99 / 0 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 99 75 100 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 70 98 71 98 / 10 10 0 10 Hatch 71 102 71 102 / 10 10 10 10 Columbus 73 100 74 100 / 0 10 10 20 Orogrande 69 96 69 97 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 56 87 58 87 / 10 30 10 10 Mescalero 55 86 57 86 / 10 30 10 10 Timberon 54 83 55 85 / 10 20 0 10 Winston 60 89 60 87 / 20 30 20 50 Hillsboro 69 97 69 96 / 20 20 10 20 Spaceport 69 98 69 98 / 10 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 58 90 58 88 / 30 20 10 30 Hurley 65 95 65 93 / 10 10 10 30 Cliff 67 99 68 96 / 30 10 20 40 Mule Creek 65 95 65 91 / 20 20 20 40 Faywood 67 94 67 93 / 10 10 10 20 Animas 70 100 70 95 / 10 20 20 50 Hachita 69 98 69 95 / 0 20 10 40 Antelope Wells 68 98 68 94 / 0 20 20 50 Cloverdale 67 93 65 88 / 10 20 20 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson