Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
152
FXUS64 KEPZ 040422
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1022 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 939 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025
- High pressure centered over the region will set up hot and dry
conditions through at least the end of the week.
- Temperatures will be at near record values with a heat advisory
in effect for the El Paso Metro area and lower Rio Grande
Valley.
- Rain chances will remain near zero for the most of the area
through the week. Rain chances and thunderstorm development
will improve slightly for the mountain areas in the latter part
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 939 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Hot and dry conditions will persist over the region as strong
high pressure aloft remains the dominant weather feature for the
next several days. The pattern will be persistent with long range
models projecting the area of high pressure remaining centered
centered over Southern New Mexico through next Sunday. This
pattern will maintain hot and mostly dry weather conditions,
keeping deep Monsoonal moisture away from the region till at least
the latter of the week.
Hot temperatures are the main impact from this weather pattern.
Today`s high temperature at the El Paso International Airport was
105 degrees which tied a record last set 1980. Temperatures will
continue to be hot and well above normal this week. National
Model Blend temperature values are running below actual values, so
have adjusted temperatures a couple of degrees upward to match
observed trends. Afternoon temperature values will be near record
levels for Monday and the rest of the week. A heat advisory is in
effect for the El Paso metro area and the lower Rio Grande Valley
for Monday and Tuesday and has a high chance of being extended
the rest of the week.
Precipitation chances for Monday through Wednesday are near zero
as a dry air mass with precipitable water values near a half an
inch remains in place the next few days. Short range convective
models hint at isolated storms over the Sacramento mountains for
Monday afternoon but those are in the 90th percentile and not
likely to occur. Eventually, toward the latter part of the week, a
modest amount of moisture does get entrained into the circulation
around the persistent high aloft. This should raise precipitable
water values to about three quarters of an inch that while is not
sufficient for precip in the lowlands, it may be enough to allow
isolated thunderstorms to develop over the mountain zones Thursday
through Saturday. Mileage will vary on coverage and rain amounts
with generally spotty accumulations in the mountains expected.
Long range outlook: The high will be stubbornly persistent over
the local area into next weekend, but it will be gradually
weakening, with moisture slowly returning to the area late for
thunderstorms next weekend into the first part of the following
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025
High pressure with hot and dry conditions will suppress shower
and thunderstorm activity through Tuesday. VFR conditions for all
terminals. Clear skies overnight through the morning with SKC-
FEW100-120 in the afternoon. Prevailing winds west to northwest at
less than 10 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Hot and very dry conditions expected through midweek with high
temperatures in the lowlands getting above 100 degrees and min
RH`s falling into the 5-12% range for all areas except in the Sacs
where some mid to upper teens are expected. Some moisture will
start to work around the upper high that will be nearly stationary
over NM by midweek. There may be some dry lightning Wed/Thu in the
higher elevations before deeper moisture moves in by Fri and into
the weekend. Winds generally light through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 74 106 76 106 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 68 100 68 99 / 10 0 0 0
Las Cruces 68 101 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 70 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 53 80 54 79 / 0 10 0 10
Truth or Consequences 67 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 63 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 66 104 66 104 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 66 101 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 71 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 69 104 71 103 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 73 105 74 105 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 68 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 70 104 72 105 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 70 102 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 74 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 67 101 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 66 103 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 71 104 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 68 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 58 90 58 91 / 0 10 0 10
Mescalero 58 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 59 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 56 94 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 65 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 64 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 56 96 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 63 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 62 102 65 102 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 61 98 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 65 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 65 101 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 65 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 66 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 63 96 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen