Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
735 FXUS64 KEPZ 142316 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 516 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Today will be the region`s best chance to see widespread showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. Some storms will be severe with hail, gusty winds and heavy rain. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms again Monday. - Relief from the heat through Monday, but triple digit temperatures will return midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Active day still looks on schedule. Weak backdoor cool front pushed through much of the CWA; subtle satellite features show it out near the Cont Divide at this time where it should become mostly stationary and mix out. Models shows some minor surface convergence with it. Feature should also help keep dewpoints in the upper 40s west and 50s east. Aloft sub-tropical high remains in place from the Gulf of America to northern Mexico. Short-wave, possibly near the Four Corners swings down in the northwest flow along the north margins of the sub-tropical high later today. Also 250mb sub-tropical jet across northern Mexico will have its RRQ over our area this afternoon. Add in above normal moisture and all these ingredients add up to scattered thunderstorms for our area. Diurnal pattern should hold again, with mountain storms developing by noon, and spreading down to the lowlands after around 2pm. Several models show somewhat organized line dropping down to Las Cruces/El Paso area after 5pm, likely associated with the short-wave. With CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg, and maybe as high as 2000 J/kg late afternoon in the east, along with good speed shear, should help produce some strong to severe storms. Large hail (1.0-1.5 inches) is possible along with wind gusts of 45-60 mph. With PWs approaching 150-200% of normal today, some heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also possible. All these threats are highest from a line from Silver City-Deming and east. Monday will see some drying as the northwest flow aloft pulls in slightly drier air. PWs drop to .75-1.00 inches and dewpoints begin dropping into the 40s northwest. Hence POPs lower on Monday though all areas still will see a chance of storms. Tuesday through Thursday...main long wave trough over eastern US splits the sub-tropical ridge in two, with our area under the east Pacific high and drier air. Thus other than a few mountain and NM Bootheel storms each afternoon, little or no chance for rain most other areas. Heat will be the main story, with lowland high temps rising back to around 100-105 each day. Friday through Sunday...sub-tropical ridge will reform over the Gulf of America, Texas, and New Mexico. Low/mid level flow turns south/southeast Friday and Saturday with moisture returning along with a chance of thunderstorms. Next Pacific trough with drier northwest flow is able to impinge into the ridge Sunday and should scour out most moisture, and with it, any chance of rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 451 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The area west of the continental divide will see widespread thunderstorm development for the next 4 to 6 hours. Storms should be over by 06Z with lingering light showers. Skies are mostly BKN070CB OVC200 with 4-6SM with TSRA continuing to develop near KTCS, KDMN,and KLRU. Storms are moving in the direction of KELP and could impact the area by 00Z. Some of these storms could produce large hail and wind gusts of 45-55 knots. Non- thunderstorm winds east/southeast 10-15 knots east of the Cont Divide. West of the divide winds are west 10-15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Not much in the way of fire weather concerns. High min RHs and scattered thunderstorms expected today and Monday. Min RHs do lower to near critical Tue-Thu for the lowlands as high temps creep back up above normal, so elevated conditions possible again by mid week. Min RH: Lowlands...20% west-35% east today and Monday, lowering to 10-15% Tuesday through Thursday. Gila/Black Range...20-30% today and Monday, lowering to 10-20% Tuesday through Thursday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...40-50% today and Monday, lowering to 15-25% Tuesday through Thursday. Vent rates fair-good today and Monday, improving to very good-excellent Tuesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 71 93 72 99 / 60 20 30 0 Sierra Blanca 62 87 62 93 / 40 20 30 0 Las Cruces 64 91 63 97 / 60 30 20 0 Alamogordo 65 90 66 97 / 50 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 48 70 49 75 / 50 30 20 10 Truth or Consequences 67 90 66 97 / 60 40 10 0 Silver City 60 89 60 92 / 30 30 20 0 Deming 64 94 64 99 / 30 20 20 0 Lordsburg 66 96 66 98 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 70 91 70 97 / 60 20 30 0 Dell City 63 89 63 95 / 30 30 30 0 Fort Hancock 68 94 69 99 / 60 20 30 0 Loma Linda 63 85 64 90 / 50 30 30 0 Fabens 67 94 68 99 / 50 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 66 90 65 96 / 50 20 30 0 White Sands HQ 71 91 71 97 / 60 20 20 0 Jornada Range 62 90 63 97 / 60 30 10 0 Hatch 65 92 64 99 / 50 50 10 0 Columbus 69 95 69 99 / 50 20 30 0 Orogrande 61 89 63 95 / 50 20 20 0 Mayhill 53 79 55 86 / 50 60 20 20 Mescalero 52 80 54 86 / 40 50 20 0 Timberon 50 76 51 82 / 50 40 30 10 Winston 55 84 56 90 / 30 40 10 0 Hillsboro 63 88 63 94 / 30 50 10 10 Spaceport 59 89 60 96 / 50 40 10 0 Lake Roberts 54 89 54 93 / 20 50 20 0 Hurley 61 91 61 95 / 30 30 20 0 Cliff 60 95 60 98 / 10 30 10 0 Mule Creek 54 91 55 94 / 10 30 10 10 Faywood 62 89 62 94 / 30 50 20 0 Animas 65 95 65 97 / 20 10 10 0 Hachita 64 95 64 98 / 30 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 65 94 64 96 / 40 20 20 10 Cloverdale 63 89 61 91 / 40 20 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen