177
FXUS64 KEPZ 250856
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
156 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

- Dry weather through the end of the work week. Temperatures
  above normal through Wednesday before out next cool down.

- Breezy winds on Wednesday. Gusts 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

Zonal flow aloft across much of the southern U.S. today, evident
in water vapor showing a strong upper high over most of Mexico and
the polar jet stream fixed well to our north. This will result in
a mostly quiet weather pattern with not a lot of change from
yesterday.

Well above normal temperatures once again today, around 10 degrees
warmer than normal for late November. Lowland highs will reach
into the low-to-mid 70s. Plentiful high moisture will produce
mostly cloudy skies, but we will remain dry. West winds will be
lighter than yesterday, generally 5 to 10 mph.

Plentiful upper level moisture sourced from a stream off the
eastern Pacific will stick around through the early part of this
week, providing quite a bit of cirrus and high cloud coverage
through at least Wednesday. We will stay dry, however, as moisture
closer to the surface remains lacking.

Surface high pressure increasing across the Southern Plains will
allow for a cold front to sweep southward Monday night.
Deterministic solutions show confidence in a glancing blow
locally with this cooler air, stalling along the Rio Grande Valley
Tuesday morning and becoming increasingly modified by Tuesday
afternoon. This frontal intrusion will go mostly unnoticed,
bringing very little in terms of winds or temperature trends.

Winds increase again Wednesday in response to a jet streak
crossing the central Rockies and inducing a lee side low over
eastern New Mexico. Sustained winds 15 to 25 mph seems like the
most common solution, so no headlines expected right now. High
terrain and east slopes will see the strongest gusts Wednesday
morning and afternoon.

Our next more noticeable weather shift will occur on
Thanksgiving. Progressive shortwave that caused Wednesday`s winds
will bring cooler air southward behind it Thursday morning. This
cold front will cool us down, but ultimately get us closer to
seasonal normals (lowland highs in the lower-60s) for Thanksgiving
and the rest of the month. Once again, plenty of cloud coverage
with this frontal passage, but very slim rain/snow chances as we
head into December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions will persist with winds remaining light overnight.
Winds will remain west tomorrow at about 7 to 10 kts. High
ceilings of thick cirrus will continue at 180 to 250 kft. The
extra cloudiness will serve to keep westerly wind speeds more
moderated in the afternoon with brief periods of gustiness to 20
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

Low fire danger for Monday with light winds and continued
warm/dry weather. Min RH up to 15-25% this afternoon. West winds 5
to 10 mph may produce a few hours of Fair smoke ventilation, but
generally poor. Dry and warm conditions will continue through
Wednesday before a cold front arrives from the north on Thursday.
Plenty of cloud coverage will hinder vent rates, but we will
remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  48  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69  40  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               69  40  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  41  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  34  50  40 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    67  40  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              64  43  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   71  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                68  38  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                72  38  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             74  41  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               65  43  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   72  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           69  47  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            68  40  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  40  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  40  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  62  35  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                60  36  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 59  33  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  62  32  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                68  40  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                67  38  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             64  38  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   67  38  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    72  27  76  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               64  38  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  67  40  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   70  40  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  69  38  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           72  43  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               66  47  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt