973
FXUS64 KEPZ 241734
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1134 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...


 -  Slight chance for thunderstorms beginning mid-week for mainly
    areas east of the Rio Grande.

 -  Fire weather conditions remaining elevated through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

The UL ridge that gave us our first taste of summer is sliding to
the east as a s/w trough/closed low sets up over Southern
NV/Eastern CA. Highs will be a few degrees cooler while high
clouds dot the sky. Over all, it will a fairly tranquil day
weather wise. The UL low well to our west will shift toward the
northeast into UT on Sunday as it absorbs into the main flow. This
will push a bit of a jet overhead with a weak surface low over
Eastern NM. Winds will increase some, but well below any notable
impacts. The main concern will be a little bit quicker fire spread
in a very dry environment. The low will be an open wave with us at
the base of a trough by Memorial Day. Jet energy will have
departed. Winds will be on the light side with highs near or just
a few degrees above normal. Tuesday will be another tranquil but
warm day as a s/w ridge builds across NM ahead of a digging
trough. Winds will continue to be light.

Wednesday begins the dryline game as a trough/UL low forms over
the Great Plains, helping to drive moisture west. Both the GFS and
Euro push moisture to about the Rio Grande, but a dissipating
s/w trough and routine mixing of the dryline will cause it to
retreat back east, limiting storm chances to mainly our far
eastern zones. The UL low over the Plains or Great Lakes region
will remain locked in place while a closed low forms off the Baja
Peninsula. This will cause the dryline to push west at night into
our CWA then retreat back east daily. The GFS and Euro cannot
agree on how far west it will retreat and then how far east it
will mix. East of the dryline there will be some thunderstorms
with some risk for severe weather, but west of the dryline it will
remain dry. As a result, areas along and east of the Continental
Divide have just about daily low to moderate (20 to 40 percent)
shower and thunderstorm chances with highest chances east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions expected with skies SCT-BKN250 through the period.
Winds becoming breezy at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots
this afternoon and evening, generally SW/W in direction. Winds
will slowly decrease after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

It will be extremely dry through at least Tuesday with afternoon
min RH values well into the single digits and poor overnight
recoveries that will struggle to get out of the teens. Winds will
not be particularly strong however with most afternoons topping
out around 10 MPH with higher gusts. The breeziest day will occur
on Sunday as winds top out a little higher. Venting will be
excellent throughout the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  66  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            93  61  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               92  57  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               94  59  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               73  48  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    93  59  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              84  53  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   94  54  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  55  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       94  65  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                98  59  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            100  62  96  58 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               89  61  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   97  62  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             93  59  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           94  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            93  56  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    94  55  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 94  61  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                93  59  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  86  52  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                84  52  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 81  48  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  84  46  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                90  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                91  53  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             85  48  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   87  51  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    90  51  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               85  52  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  86  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   91  55  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  55  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               84  54  82  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers