Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
896 FXUS64 KEPZ 141742 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 - Thunderstorm activity will largely be focused over SW New Mexico through this evening. Highly localized flooding possible. - An upper low traversing northern Mexico through the weekend will favor an uptick in thunderstorms east of the Continental Divide on Saturday, and areawide on Sunday. - Another dry and warmer spell is on the way for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Upper high over the Lower Mississippi Valley which will be shifting west over the coming days and briefly setup a nice deep southeasterly flow pattern. Later today, models all indicating a similar rain pattern to the last 2 days where most activity will be in an arc from the bootheel NE towards TCS. There will be some convergence just east of the area along lee trough which may help a few storms develop out there and outflows help trigger a few storms. Coverage will remain isolated over the lowlands with scattered in the Gila. Storms will die off around sunset. For Saturday, the deep southeast flow sets up over the east and the Sacs will get going by early afternoon and outflows will trigger lowland storms, mainly focused east of the RGV. Forecast soundings have about 500-1000J/kg CAPE but shear is weak. Could get a few pulse near severe storms, but think locally heavy rain will be the main threat with slow storm motion and PW`s of 1.1-1.3". Sunday has a wide range of solutions. All the models are showing a very slow moving easterly wave moving up the RGV and these features have a tendency to not be well handled by the models, especially in regards to precipitation. Moisture will be in place at least early on, but the GFS and it`s ensembles almost all support drier air quickly moving in ahead of the feature and keeps most of the CWA dry. The SREF, ICON and EC ensembles showing at least scattered PoPs. NBM PoPs I felt were low with barely mentionable for most of the lowlands and so put in at least widely scattered everywhere with scattered in the higher elevations. This feature will linger into Monday over the west and expect some more storms to develop mainly west of the Divide. By Tuesday, the upper high becomes established across much of the southern US and centered near NM. Drier air moves into most of the area and will keep any thunderstorm activity in the far west/Gila region. With the upper high moving into the region, temperatures will warm back up into the upper 90s to around 100 Tuesday and continue warming into Wed and Thu. Yesterday, the GFS going into late Wed and Thu was bringing a very strong trough across the Northern Rockies and breaking down the ridge while it`s ensemble mean supported the ridge remaining in place. EC was similar to the ensemble means. Now the models are coming to a compromise with a quicker, weaker trough moving across the Northern Rockies and through the plains and the area ends up on the tail end of a frontal boundary. This will help to increase PoPs again areawide. Temperatures may be a little cool on the NBM as H85 temps warm into the 33-35C range for the RGV and there could be some highs approaching 105 around KELP, but timing of this frontal boundary could impact highs and we can move up as we get closer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 through most of the period. Isolated lowland and scattered 3-5SM -TSRA BKN050-070 with wind gusts over 30KTS will again develop from the NM Bootheel northeast towards KTCS early this afternoon. Expect this activity to end by sunset. A few storms may develop off outflows and move into Hudspeth county this evening. Winds generally west to southwest AOB 12KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Moisture remains in place, but thunderstorm activity through this evening will remain fairly isolated and similar to the last 2 days focused out west. For Saturday, deeper moisture will start to push in from the east and moderate to heavy rainfall is possible in the Sacs with storms moving onto the lowlands later in the afternoon. Sunday looks like it could be more widespread with at least widely scattered storms areawide as a weak system moves NW up the RGV. RH`s through Sun will remain in the 20s+. Going into early next week, some drier air moves in and temperatures will warm up into the upper 90s to around 105 for the lowlands by Wed with RH`s falling into the teens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 97 72 97 / 10 20 40 20 Sierra Blanca 66 92 65 92 / 30 30 20 20 Las Cruces 68 94 67 96 / 10 10 30 20 Alamogordo 69 95 69 95 / 10 20 20 40 Cloudcroft 52 71 51 71 / 10 60 20 60 Truth or Consequences 69 94 70 95 / 20 10 10 20 Silver City 62 88 62 89 / 10 10 10 40 Deming 67 95 68 96 / 10 10 20 20 Lordsburg 67 94 68 95 / 10 0 10 20 West El Paso Metro 73 97 71 97 / 10 20 40 20 Dell City 70 97 69 97 / 30 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 72 98 73 99 / 40 30 20 20 Loma Linda 67 90 67 90 / 10 30 40 20 Fabens 71 97 72 98 / 20 20 30 20 Santa Teresa 71 96 70 95 / 10 10 40 20 White Sands HQ 72 96 72 96 / 10 20 30 20 Jornada Range 67 93 69 96 / 10 20 20 30 Hatch 68 97 69 99 / 10 10 20 20 Columbus 72 97 72 97 / 20 10 30 10 Orogrande 68 94 67 94 / 10 20 20 20 Mayhill 57 83 56 83 / 10 80 30 40 Mescalero 56 83 56 82 / 10 60 20 60 Timberon 54 81 54 81 / 10 50 20 40 Winston 57 86 59 86 / 20 20 10 40 Hillsboro 64 93 66 94 / 20 20 10 30 Spaceport 66 95 67 95 / 20 10 10 30 Lake Roberts 55 88 57 88 / 20 10 10 60 Hurley 63 91 63 92 / 10 10 10 40 Cliff 60 95 65 95 / 10 0 10 40 Mule Creek 56 90 63 92 / 10 0 10 30 Faywood 64 91 65 91 / 10 10 10 40 Animas 67 94 68 96 / 10 10 10 10 Hachita 67 94 68 95 / 10 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 66 93 67 94 / 20 20 20 10 Cloverdale 63 88 64 90 / 10 20 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz