Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
783 FXUS64 KEPZ 200436 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1036 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1031 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Moisture levels will lower beginning on Wednesday, continuing into the weekend, leading to a decrease in storm coverage. - From Thursday through Sunday, storm chances will be focused in the Gila Region with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. - Moisture and storm chances rebound late in the period. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Near-term PoPs (3-6z) have been adjusted to reflect isolated storms moving SW out of the Tularosa Basin towards El Paso. Moisture levels remain above normal for Wednesday as high pressure aloft sits over the Four Corners, but will come down slightly from the observed 1.40" PWAT in the latest 0z EPZ sounding. We still have a favorable profile for heavy rainfall with skinny CAPE, above average moisture, and slow storm motions. Storm chances will decrease for Wed afternoon as drier air moves into the upper levels with less instability than previous days. Generally isolated activity is expected for the afternoon and evening with storm motion from the east and a bit faster than we`ve seen lately. Gusty winds to 40 mph and heavy downpours are possible. Flash flooding is less of a concern compared to the past few days due to somewhat faster storm motion and lower moisture levels. Storm chances will be favored along and east of the RGV on Wednesday. Storm chances and moisture levels continue to decrease for the rest of the week with PWs falling to below normal on Thursday as drier, stable air moves in from the northeast around the upper high. The mountains (mainly the Gila) will still see isolated activity each day while the lowlands stay dry through the weekend. That tongue of dry air looks to get displaced/weakened by the high early next week, allowing moisture levels to rebound to near or above normal next Tue/Wed. Temps stay within a few degrees of normal with a slight warm-up late this week due to drier air and lower storm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Isolated showers and storms are passing by KLRU and KELP as of 0430z and should move away by 6z. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through the AM, but other stray TS cannot be ruled out. There`s a low chance of storms developing during the afternoon, but confidence is low in location and coverage of activity. Prevailing winds will be AOB 8kts mainly from E-SE outside of any gusty outflows. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Low fire concerns each day through the weekend as min RHs stay above critical thresholds each afternoon. Expect min RH values around 18-30% starting tomorrow and through the weekend. Pretty good overnight recoveries the next couple days. Tonight`s max RHs will be 60-80% across the lowlands and 85-100% in the mountains. Thursday morning max RHs will be the same as Wednesday for the mountains but the lowlands will see around 50-70%. Drier air filters in and storm chances dwindle Thursday and onward focusing over the area mountains with very little to no activity in the desert lowlands. Winds will stay fairly light each afternoon with 20 foot winds generally out of the southeast at 4-8mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 94 73 96 / 30 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 64 88 64 88 / 20 50 20 20 Las Cruces 68 90 66 92 / 40 20 20 0 Alamogordo 67 90 66 92 / 20 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 49 67 48 69 / 20 60 10 20 Truth or Consequences 69 90 69 92 / 40 20 10 10 Silver City 63 86 62 87 / 50 50 20 30 Deming 70 94 68 96 / 40 20 20 0 Lordsburg 69 93 69 94 / 50 30 20 10 West El Paso Metro 73 91 71 93 / 30 20 20 0 Dell City 68 90 66 92 / 20 30 10 10 Fort Hancock 71 93 70 93 / 30 40 20 20 Loma Linda 66 85 65 86 / 20 30 20 10 Fabens 71 92 69 93 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 70 90 69 92 / 30 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 71 91 71 93 / 30 30 20 10 Jornada Range 68 90 67 92 / 30 20 20 10 Hatch 69 93 68 94 / 40 20 20 10 Columbus 70 93 69 94 / 40 20 20 0 Orogrande 68 88 66 90 / 20 30 10 10 Mayhill 55 77 54 79 / 20 50 10 20 Mescalero 53 79 53 81 / 20 50 10 20 Timberon 54 75 53 78 / 20 50 10 20 Winston 56 84 57 86 / 50 30 10 20 Hillsboro 64 90 64 92 / 50 30 20 10 Spaceport 66 90 66 92 / 40 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 57 86 57 88 / 60 60 20 40 Hurley 64 88 64 89 / 50 40 20 20 Cliff 66 93 65 94 / 60 50 20 30 Mule Creek 63 90 63 91 / 50 50 20 40 Faywood 65 87 64 89 / 40 30 20 20 Animas 69 93 67 95 / 50 20 20 10 Hachita 67 91 66 92 / 50 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 66 90 66 92 / 60 20 20 0 Cloverdale 64 87 65 88 / 50 30 20 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson