Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
744 FXUS64 KEPZ 051131 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 531 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, favoring local mountains and western New Mexico. Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding. Rain chances will continue into next week. - Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026 A large UL ridge is covering much of the CONUS with its center just off the Gulf Coast of TX and LA. This pattern has steered a rich moisture plume our way with the 00Z EPZ sounding showing 1.56" of PW. Lack of UL forcing (possibly even a little bit of background subsidence) and morning cloud coverage did a good job of limiting convective coverage this afternoon, especially along and east of the Rio Grande. Satellite imagery hints at a weak disturbance over Northern Chihuahua, which will slowly lift north overnight tonight and into the morning. Guidance is not particularly helpful on whether this disturbance will bring showers and storms north of the border. The HRRR has given a different solution with every iteration. Nevertheless, it will bring clouds, and that may work to hinder our storm chances again for Saturday. Regardless, our pattern looks to be largely the same otherwise, very moist (~1.5" PW) with the westward extension of the ridge overhead, so expect a forecast similar to today with scattered mountain storms and isolated to scattered coverage in the lowlands, largely depending on how much cloud/rain lingers into the morning. Heavy rain will be the main concern. By Sunday we begin a slow drying trend as the subtropical ridge`s influence increases over the CWA. PW values will drop to around 1.25" with H500 temps around -4 degrees C. Convective coverage will drop, especially for the lowlands, but everyone will continue to see at least modest rain/storm chances with mountains and western lowlands favored, and this pattern will hold steady through at least the middle of next week. The UL high will continue to extend its influence into NM with the healthiest moisture plume west of the Continental Divide. As we get into Wednesday and beyond the GFS and Euro diverge with the Euro building the ridge over the Desert SW with moisture trapped beneath it while the GFS sends the ridge well to our east with a trough influencing our weather. The Euro would continue this pattern of scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms while the GFS would bring widespread rain/storm chances. Looking at the LREF 500 mb heights, I`d say the truth will lie somewhere in the middle though probably more ridgy than troughy (not a real word). Temperatures throughout the period look to more or less hold steady, running about 5 degrees above normal, which is upper the 80s to near 90 this time of year for the lowlands. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 VMC this morning with skies FEW-SCT130, SCT-BKN250. Surface winds will be light and variable AOB 5 knots today. High cirrus across SW NM through the morning, with TCU developing after 18Z. Very isolated -TSRA this afternoon, mostly over area mtns. Not enough confidence to include TS mention in TAFs, given low coverage. Will amend later today if needed. Outflows may lead to surface gusts up to 25KT between 00-06Z tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Isolated showers and thunderstorms over NM forests this afternoon, which could lead to sudden, erratic wind gusts between 2PM and 8PM today. Localized flooding is also possible. Min RH 30-40% with very good overnight recoveries. Very light wind today will keep vent rates Poor. Dry conditions tonight into Sunday morning. Good rain chances for both Lincoln and Gila NF through the week ahead, with flooding risk peaking during the mid-afternoon hours each day. Storm coverage will be scattered (30-50%) and spotty in nature. This extended period of favorable rain chances will keep fire danger low with minimal risk of new lightning starts. Prevailing flow shifts out of the SE Sunday into next week, with midday vent rates generally Poor/Fair. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 96 74 95 / 20 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 65 91 64 91 / 20 10 0 0 Las Cruces 68 95 68 93 / 20 10 30 0 Alamogordo 68 93 67 93 / 20 40 10 20 Cloudcroft 50 69 49 69 / 20 60 10 50 Truth or Consequences 70 93 70 91 / 10 20 40 10 Silver City 63 88 63 85 / 10 30 50 50 Deming 68 96 68 94 / 10 10 30 0 Lordsburg 68 95 69 92 / 10 10 30 10 West El Paso Metro 75 96 75 95 / 20 10 10 0 Dell City 70 95 69 95 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 98 73 98 / 20 10 0 0 Loma Linda 67 89 67 88 / 30 10 0 0 Fabens 71 97 72 96 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 95 71 93 / 20 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 73 95 72 94 / 20 20 20 0 Jornada Range 68 94 68 93 / 20 10 30 0 Hatch 70 97 70 95 / 20 10 40 0 Columbus 72 96 72 94 / 10 0 30 0 Orogrande 68 93 68 93 / 20 10 10 0 Mayhill 56 82 55 82 / 20 40 10 30 Mescalero 55 81 54 81 / 20 60 10 50 Timberon 54 80 52 79 / 30 40 0 20 Winston 59 85 59 83 / 10 40 40 60 Hillsboro 68 92 68 90 / 10 30 50 30 Spaceport 67 94 67 92 / 10 20 40 0 Lake Roberts 57 87 57 85 / 10 40 40 60 Hurley 63 91 64 88 / 10 20 40 30 Cliff 66 95 67 93 / 10 30 40 40 Mule Creek 63 91 65 90 / 10 10 30 40 Faywood 66 90 66 87 / 10 20 40 20 Animas 68 94 68 92 / 10 10 40 10 Hachita 67 94 67 91 / 10 10 50 10 Antelope Wells 66 93 67 91 / 10 0 40 10 Cloverdale 64 88 65 86 / 10 20 40 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt