Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
185 FXUS64 KEPZ 220444 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1044 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Much drier air in place this weekend, with only slight storm chances across the Gila Wilderness. Rain chances returning next week. - Typical late August temperatures and light winds. Lowland highs in the mid to upper nineties. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Line of weak thunderstorms moving through western Sierra/northern Grant County tonight. Truth or Consequences and part of the Black Range will see rain tonight along with some gusty winds. This activity will slowly weaken before dissipating over the next couple hours. Upper high sits over the Four Corners on Friday, with northeast flow aloft entraining drier continental air into the El Paso forecast area as we head into the weekend. Noticeable drying trend with precipitable water falling to around 0.8" this weekend. Friday through next Monday will be almost completely dry area wide, with only slight chances for the Gila Wilderness and western New Mexico where moisture hangs on a little better. El Paso is looking at a dry weekend with warm (but near normal for late August) temperatures. Lowland highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, with El Paso topping out in the 96-98 degrees range each afternoon. Upper high progresses eastward early next week, shifting over central Texas by next Tuesday. This return of south flow aloft combined with a wave out of Baja will help pull monsoonal moisture back into the region. PWs look to jump quickly back to 1.5" on Tuesday, leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the most active days next week and our best chance at more rain. This will reintroduce the risk of flash flooding in some areas. Rain chances look to hang out the rest of next week, but more isolated and focused over the mountain forests. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 VMC through forecast period. Dry conditions overnight with skies FEW-SCT110. Minimal TS activity again tomorrow across S NM and W TX. Surface winds 110-140 at 5 to 10 knots tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Drier air has pushed into the region which will limit our thunderstorm chances to the Gila region this afternoon. The dry weather will continue through Monday. Winds will be light from the east or southeast today through the weekend. Min RH`s today will be in the 20`s in the lowlands and in the 30`s in the mountains, but by Saturday, our min RH`s will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area mountains. Moisture and rain chances look to return to the forecast by the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 89 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 67 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 70 48 70 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 69 92 69 92 / 30 0 0 0 Silver City 63 87 63 87 / 30 20 10 10 Deming 68 96 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 94 69 95 / 20 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 73 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 65 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 93 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 64 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 68 94 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 69 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 80 53 80 / 0 10 0 10 Mescalero 53 81 53 82 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 52 78 52 79 / 0 10 0 0 Winston 57 86 57 85 / 30 10 0 10 Hillsboro 64 92 63 92 / 20 10 0 10 Spaceport 67 91 66 92 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 88 58 87 / 30 20 10 20 Hurley 64 90 63 90 / 20 10 10 10 Cliff 66 94 66 95 / 30 20 10 10 Mule Creek 63 91 63 91 / 40 20 10 20 Faywood 65 88 64 89 / 20 10 0 10 Animas 67 95 66 95 / 10 10 10 10 Hachita 66 93 65 93 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 89 64 90 / 0 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt