Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
733 FXUS64 KEPZ 211121 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 521 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 - Lower storm coverage today, limited more to western New Mexico and the high terrain. Storms will be capable of localized flash flooding. - Drier and warmer weather pattern later this week, limiting storms to western New Mexico and the high elevations. Lowland temperatures will begin reaching triple digits Friday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The upper level low that helped generate wide spread thunderstorms with heavy rain on Monday, will continue to slowly drift to the west. The threat for heavy rain on Tuesday afternoon will be reduced, we will still have plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, but the better dynamics will begin to push into Arizona. High temperatures will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees below average. Enjoy the "cooler" weather, since it won`t last long. On Wednesday the upper level ridge to our northeast will begin to build into New Mexico, which will push most of the moisture into Arizona and start to really limit our thunderstorm coverage. High temperatures on Wednesday will be near or a degree or two below average. For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will slide into New Mexico and we will see high temperature creep 5 to 10 degrees above average. Many lowland locations will see triple digit heat on Friday (if not on Thursday). For the weekend, the upper level ridge drifts a little further north. This will allow a little moisture to bring some thunderstorm chances mainly in area mountains and to keep most lowland locations high temperatures above the triple digit mark. For the start of next week, the exact location of the upper level ridge is still in doubt, but no matter what, things still look pretty hot with just a slight chance for rain. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 VMC expected through forecast period. Skies beginning SCT-BKN150 this morning, with surface winds variable AOB 5 knots. Afternoon conditions 160-190 5 to 10 knots with skies FEW-SCT070. TSRA across W NM and mtns, likely not affecting local TAF sites directly today. No mention of TS in TAFs currently, will amend if necessary late this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Scattered thunderstorms (30-50% coverage) across western New Mexico and Gila/Lincoln NF this afternoon. Much lower coverage across the desert lowlands. Storms will be capable of sudden, gusty winds, canyon and burn scar flooding, and new lightning starts. Min RH 30-50% with very good overnight RH recovery. Moisture shifts west over the next few days, limiting rain chances with much more isolated (10-20%) storm coverage over mountains. Drier and warmer trend will allow ERCs to increase into next weekend, but no critical fire weather conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 96 75 99 / 20 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 91 65 93 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 66 92 68 96 / 30 10 10 0 Alamogordo 68 93 70 97 / 20 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 51 70 52 74 / 20 50 10 20 Truth or Consequences 69 91 70 95 / 30 20 0 0 Silver City 60 84 63 88 / 60 30 20 10 Deming 65 94 68 98 / 50 10 0 0 Lordsburg 65 90 68 95 / 60 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 73 94 75 98 / 20 10 10 0 Dell City 69 96 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 98 73 100 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 66 88 68 91 / 20 10 0 0 Fabens 71 96 72 100 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 92 71 96 / 20 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 73 94 76 97 / 20 10 0 0 Jornada Range 68 92 71 96 / 20 10 10 0 Hatch 67 95 70 99 / 30 10 10 0 Columbus 69 94 72 99 / 50 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 92 69 96 / 20 10 0 0 Mayhill 56 82 56 86 / 20 30 10 10 Mescalero 55 81 56 85 / 20 50 10 10 Timberon 54 80 55 83 / 20 20 0 0 Winston 58 82 59 87 / 50 40 0 20 Hillsboro 64 89 67 93 / 50 20 10 0 Spaceport 64 91 67 96 / 20 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 56 85 58 90 / 60 40 20 10 Hurley 61 87 64 91 / 60 20 10 0 Cliff 63 90 65 95 / 60 30 20 10 Mule Creek 60 86 63 91 / 60 30 20 10 Faywood 63 86 65 91 / 50 10 10 0 Animas 64 90 68 95 / 60 10 10 0 Hachita 63 90 66 95 / 60 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 89 67 94 / 50 10 20 0 Cloverdale 61 85 64 90 / 50 20 30 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt