Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
192 FXUS64 KEPZ 081759 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1159 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Dry conditions Thursday and Friday. - Remnant tropical moisture from Hurricane Priscilla will flow over the area this weekend bringing areawide rain chances. - Another tropical system will flow over the area early next week continuing areawide rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Upper high continues to build into the area tonight and tomorrow, retrograding from central TX. Mid level capping inversion will keep the area dry Thursday and into Friday as high pressure influences us. Pressure gradient stays somewhat tight over the area but especially over western locations like the Lordsburg Playa and even the remainder of Hidalgo county and into Luna county. Breezy conditions will continue to be seen in those areas each afternoon and overnight time frames with wind speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Patchy blowing dust possible but confidence is low with regards to how low visibility reductions will become. High pressure will meander around the west TX area Friday before being shunted south into Mexico due to a passing trough Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will guide Hurricane Priscilla`s moisture northward into Baja California, SoCal, and SW AZ Saturday morning but our rain chances begin Saturday afternoon west of the Continental Divide and will march eastward slowly throughout the weekend. Forecasted PW values are around 1.2-1.3" which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. If this pattern holds, this could even be a chance for record breaking PWs. Storms will be prone to heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding if they can tap into some instability. One thing that will help with the flooding threat is the fast storm motions that are expected both afternoons with speeds of 15-25 mph. The aforementioned trough looks to swing by Saturday evening and into Sunday which will help keep storm activity going throughout the overnight. We`re not done with the rain chances yet! Another tropical storm looks to make it`s way into the CONUS by early in the work week taking a very similar path that Priscilla took. Confidence is low with regards to this forecast so far out, but more rain chances could be on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. Low end breezy southeast to southerly winds will be seen throughout the afternoon with speeds 10-15G20-25KT. Thunderstorms expected mostly for the Sacramento Mtns this afternoon but should stay dry elsewhere. Winds decrease generally AOB 10KT tonight but KDMN may stay a bit breezier. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Low fire danger through the week ahead as min RH values stay well above critical thresholds. Thursday and Friday will be dry, min RHs will be 35-45% in the lowlands and 50-80% in the higher terrain the next few afternoons. Tropical remnants look to flow over the area this weekend allowing for good areawide rain chances. Storms will be prone to heavy rainfall if they are able to tap into some instability. Another round of tropical remnants possible starting early next week which could continue areawide rain chances. Breezy southeast winds will persist each overnight and afternoon starting tonight through Friday afternoon. 20 foot wind speeds will be 10-15 mph across the lowlands with the breeziest conditions seen near Deming and especially west of Deming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 86 67 86 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 80 56 81 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 62 80 60 82 / 10 10 0 0 Alamogordo 59 80 58 83 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 58 42 61 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 78 60 79 / 20 10 0 0 Silver City 57 75 56 76 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 64 83 63 85 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 64 82 64 83 / 20 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 67 83 66 84 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 59 83 58 84 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 59 76 58 77 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 65 86 64 86 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 82 63 83 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 81 62 82 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 61 80 60 81 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 62 83 61 84 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 64 84 64 85 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 60 80 59 81 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 48 68 47 71 / 20 10 0 0 Mescalero 47 70 46 73 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 47 68 45 69 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 51 70 50 72 / 20 20 0 0 Hillsboro 57 78 58 79 / 10 10 0 0 Spaceport 59 79 58 80 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 75 52 76 / 20 20 10 0 Hurley 58 76 58 78 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 61 83 60 84 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 57 78 56 80 / 20 10 10 0 Faywood 59 75 59 77 / 10 10 0 0 Animas 64 83 63 85 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 63 82 62 83 / 10 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 61 83 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 79 60 80 / 10 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher