Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
942 FXUS64 KEPZ 171651 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1051 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 - Deeper monsoonal moisture on southerly winds will persist through Monday, with abundant cloud coverage and chances for thunderstorms. - Moisture will diminish around midweek to near normal, allowing for more isolated storm coverage. Even drier air expected late in the week, with storms limited mostly to the mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 The area remains within deep southerly flow this morning thanks to an UL trough along the west coast and a large, sprawling high covering much of the eastern CONUS. Similar to yesterday, satellite shows a decaying MCV over the CWA, which will act to limit instability. The biggest difference from yesterday, however, are more breaks within the cloud, much of which have appeared over the last hour as the MCV decays. Today`s storm risk is a bit conditional to how much clearing and subsequent warming we can get the rest of this morning into the afternoon as we have sufficient moisture (1" across the Gila to about 1.4" toward Hudspeth Co) in place, but subtle height rises with building high pressure will also limit instability. Looking at the HREF and HRRR, we will see a high chance over the Sacramento Mountains (60-80%) with 30-40% chances elsewhere. Southerly flow continues for Monday, but the UL high will have repositioned itself to just east of the Four Corners by evening. This pattern is not the most favorable thermodynamical pattern, but moisture levels will remain high enough to support at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms. We see storm coverage begin to decrease beginning Tuesday though with warming aloft thanks to the strengthening high near the Four Corners. Moisture remains around 1.2-1.4", so still decent storm chances/coverage but should be less than Monday. The high strengthens further for Wednesday, but PW values will drop to near an inch. Coverage will be greatly reduced as a result with most of us staying dry. By Thursday, lasting into the weekend, the atmosphere will be too dry for storms with air coming from the Central Plains. Pretty much only the Gila will have a low chance to see any precipitation. Highs will climb as well though the NBM keeps them near seasonal values. I would not be surprised, given the pattern, if highs run about 3 degrees higher than presently forecast (operational NBM). The one thing that will help limit our warming though is compressional warming from the high will be offset by weak CAA as our air mass comes from the cooler Central Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with SCT-BKN150-250 with FEW-SCT as low as 080. Winds will mainly be light and variable throughout the period though direction will favor SW`LY through the afternoon. ISO to SCT TSRA/SHRA is expected to develop later this afternoon, but confidence on timing and occurrence for direct impacts to terminals is a bit low. No mention of thunder is included with this update, but conditions will be monitored closely for amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025 With monsoonal moisture remaining in place, fire concerns will continue to be minimal to nil. Mornings will feature good to excellent recoveries while afternoon minimums drop into the mid to upper 20s in the lowlands. Some drying is forecast mid to late week with a decrease in dew points and an increase in afternoon highs, but min RH values are forecast to stay near 20%. Winds will also be light for the period. The moisture will foster thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. By Thursday, storm chances will largely be limited to the Gila Wilderness. Venting will range poor to fair, improving to fair to good by mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 75 96 75 / 30 40 40 40 Sierra Blanca 89 66 89 66 / 60 40 60 40 Las Cruces 91 68 91 68 / 30 40 40 50 Alamogordo 92 69 92 69 / 40 30 40 30 Cloudcroft 68 50 68 50 / 60 30 80 30 Truth or Consequences 92 69 92 69 / 20 20 40 30 Silver City 86 62 87 63 / 40 30 60 50 Deming 95 69 95 70 / 20 40 40 50 Lordsburg 93 68 94 69 / 30 40 50 50 West El Paso Metro 92 73 93 73 / 30 40 40 40 Dell City 94 70 93 70 / 40 30 40 20 Fort Hancock 94 72 95 73 / 50 40 60 40 Loma Linda 86 68 87 68 / 40 30 50 30 Fabens 93 72 94 73 / 30 40 40 30 Santa Teresa 91 70 92 71 / 20 40 30 50 White Sands HQ 93 72 94 73 / 30 30 50 50 Jornada Range 91 68 92 69 / 30 40 50 50 Hatch 94 68 95 69 / 30 30 50 50 Columbus 92 70 95 71 / 20 40 30 50 Orogrande 91 68 90 69 / 40 30 40 30 Mayhill 81 56 80 57 / 70 30 80 30 Mescalero 80 55 80 55 / 60 30 80 30 Timberon 78 55 77 55 / 60 30 60 30 Winston 84 57 85 57 / 30 30 60 40 Hillsboro 91 63 92 65 / 30 30 50 50 Spaceport 91 66 92 68 / 30 30 40 40 Lake Roberts 86 57 87 57 / 40 30 70 50 Hurley 88 63 89 64 / 40 30 60 50 Cliff 94 65 94 66 / 30 20 60 40 Mule Creek 89 63 90 63 / 20 20 40 30 Faywood 87 64 88 65 / 40 40 60 50 Animas 92 68 94 68 / 30 40 50 60 Hachita 91 67 92 68 / 30 40 50 50 Antelope Wells 89 65 92 66 / 40 50 50 60 Cloverdale 84 63 87 64 / 40 40 60 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown