Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
859
FXUS64 KEPZ 040447
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1047 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1001 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
- Begin transitioning to a hotter, drier pattern over the next
week.
- High pressure builds over New Mexico, shutting off much of the
monsoon moisture, limiting thunderstorm chances mostly to the
mountains through Monday.
- Mid level flow begins bringing some moisture back to the area
Tuesday and Wednesday for a slight increase for a risk of
thunderstorms.
- Hot temperatures Saturday and Sunday, with near normal
temperatures the remainder of the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
A few thunderstorms left in the CWA til around 07Z and then dying
as we begin a drying trend. Upper trough over eastern Arizona
will sweep through overnight continuing the drying out as our
monsoon tap temporarily shuts off. PWs Friday decrease back to
around .6 to .8 inches, lowering dewpoints and instability in the
process. With the trough through the area by late morning, the
prime heating hours will not have any support. As the upper high
sets up over New Mexico, further drying on Saturday and Sunday
should again limit any thunderstorm chances to the mountains. Lack
of clouds and very warm 850mb temps should allow triple digit
high temperatures back to much of the lowlands.
By Monday and Tuesday the upper high drifts off over the AZ/NM
border and mid/upper level east/northeast flow begins to bring back
some moisture. Hence POPs, though remaining fairly low, will spread
back to most of the CWA. This pattern through Wednesday-northeast
flow aloft-while not conducive to high storm coverage, can bring
disturbances down from the midwest and create a few strong/severe
storms; something to watch for. Temperatures should briefly moderate
back to seasonable levels.
By Thursday and Friday, the upper high moves over Arizona with
ridging eastward over New Mexico. This will allow both capping at
mid-levels and a drying airmass. With the sun and warming 850mb
temps, we will be looking at triple digit temps again Thursday into
the weekend. NBM 75th percentile even shows highs well into Heat
Advisory criteria.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Generally VFR through the period with SCT100 BKN250. Isolated
BKN050CB -TSRA, mainly across Sierra and northern Otero Counties,
until 07Z. Developing again after 19Z Friday...isolated
thunderstorms, mainly over higher terrain. Surface winds west
10-13G23 knots through about 10Z, then becoming northwest AOB 8
knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025
No significant fire concerns are anticipated through the period
although increasing afternoon highs and decreasing dew points will
lead to critical afternoon RH values in portions of the lowlands.
For the rest of today though, we will see scattered showers and
thunderstorms, favoring the mountains. Rain/storm chances largely
disappear for Friday and Saturday with min RH values in the mid-
teens. Moisture begins to creep back in on Sunday, reintroducing
low shower/thunderstorm chances.
Venting will be fairly diverse across locations though generally
ranging good to very good each afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 74 97 75 102 / 30 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 66 88 66 94 / 40 0 0 0
Las Cruces 67 94 68 98 / 30 0 0 0
Alamogordo 66 93 67 99 / 30 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 50 71 52 77 / 20 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 67 93 70 98 / 30 0 0 0
Silver City 58 85 61 90 / 30 10 10 10
Deming 67 95 67 100 / 20 0 0 0
Lordsburg 65 91 66 96 / 40 20 10 10
West El Paso Metro 72 94 73 99 / 30 0 0 0
Dell City 68 94 67 98 / 20 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 71 95 71 101 / 40 0 0 0
Loma Linda 65 87 66 93 / 30 0 0 0
Fabens 72 95 71 101 / 30 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 71 93 71 98 / 30 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 71 94 73 99 / 30 0 0 0
Jornada Range 65 93 65 98 / 40 0 0 0
Hatch 66 96 66 100 / 30 0 0 0
Columbus 71 94 73 98 / 30 0 10 0
Orogrande 67 92 66 97 / 20 0 0 0
Mayhill 56 82 59 88 / 20 10 0 0
Mescalero 55 82 57 89 / 30 0 0 0
Timberon 53 79 56 85 / 20 0 0 0
Winston 54 86 57 90 / 40 10 0 10
Hillsboro 61 92 64 96 / 30 10 10 0
Spaceport 63 93 64 97 / 30 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 55 87 56 93 / 30 10 10 10
Hurley 61 88 62 93 / 30 10 0 10
Cliff 62 93 62 98 / 30 10 10 10
Mule Creek 59 88 60 94 / 30 10 0 10
Faywood 62 87 64 93 / 30 10 0 0
Animas 65 91 67 96 / 50 20 20 10
Hachita 65 90 66 96 / 40 10 10 0
Antelope Wells 65 90 66 95 / 60 30 30 10
Cloverdale 62 85 63 90 / 70 50 30 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner