Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
449 FXUS64 KEPZ 262302 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 502 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 453 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Moisture increases Sunday through Tuesday with the most widespread thunderstorm activity being Monday and Tuesday. - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday as a monsoonal plume sets up. - Looking warmer and drier later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 A lobe of high pressure lingers over the area allowing for a definite decrease in storm activity today, perhaps a few showers over the Sacramento Mtns, Otero mesa, and Hudspeth with a possible rumble or two of thunder. More notably will be the hot temperatures with triple digits scattered over the lowlands including Deming, El Paso and the lower valley. The center of the high pressure is settled over SC/GA today but will continue to meander westward. As it does so, monsoonal moisture will surge in from the southeast tonight and tomorrow morning which will bring a better shot for thunderstorms compared to today, but can expect it to be more a low end monsoon day with storms initiating in the area mountains, especially the Sacramentos, with more isolated to scattered coverage in the desert lowlands. PW values are right around average, so localized flooding from storms is possible. Looks like storm motion will be on the slower side as well (5-10 mph) adding to the flooding threat. Gusty outflow winds will also be a concern as DCAPEs will be well over 1000J/kg. Sundays temperatures will continue to be hot like what we`ll see today but perhaps a degree or two decrease due to the increased moisture over the area. By Monday, high pressure continues to meander westward and will largely be over the Ark-La-Tex region allowing for an even better monsoonal moisture surge. PW values increase to above average values Monday (1.2-1.3") and mid 50s dewpoints. This will add to the flooding threat as any storms have the potential to cause flooding. Storm motions stay fairly slow (7- 12mph). Tuesday appears similar to Monday so flooding from storms continues to be the biggest threat. High pressure centers itself over central TX Wednesday allowing for drier conditions generally east of the RGV with the monsoonal plume focused over western areas of the CWA and AZ. Towards the end of the week, high pressure looks to migrate right over the area but still looks like trapped moisture underneath the high pressure looks to still fire off some storms. As drier air entrains into the area, temperatures gradually warm through Saturday, threatening to push high temps to the triple digit mark. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow morning. FEW-SCT CU are ongoing across the area with isolated showers in far eastern areas. All terminals remain dry through tonight with mainly SKC. Moisture increases on Sunday ahead of a weather system, resulting in isolated showers and storms in the lowlands towards the end of the period. Highest confidence in direct impacts is at KLRU and KELP later in the afternoon. Gusts to 30kts and BLDU are possible with the TS activity. Otherwise, winds will be AOB 10kts and shifting E-SE for tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Moisture pushes in tonight and tomorrow morning from the southeast which will bring an increase in storm activity tomorrow compared to what we`ll see today. In addition, min RH values will increase to above critical thresholds for all areas generally along and east of the Rio Grande. RH values of 10-15% will be seen elsewhere. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern near storms. Moisture continues to push into the area, so Monday and Tuesday will be the best thunderstorm days with the best coverage. Flooding will be an issue with storms, especially over recent burn scars. High pressure begins influencing the area Wednesday and onward with the monsoonal plume of moisture focused on locations west of the RGV and into AZ. This is where the best storm coverage will be with lesser activity focused out east. Moisture looks to stick around allowing for warmer temperatures and normal monsoonal activity, just may be more of a focus for storms out west. Min RHs look to largely stay out of critical thresholds except for portions of the lower valley Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 100 76 95 / 0 20 10 30 Sierra Blanca 66 92 68 89 / 10 20 10 50 Las Cruces 69 97 69 92 / 0 20 20 20 Alamogordo 70 94 68 91 / 0 30 10 30 Cloudcroft 52 73 50 69 / 10 40 10 60 Truth or Consequences 69 96 71 92 / 0 20 10 30 Silver City 64 92 64 87 / 0 20 20 70 Deming 68 100 71 95 / 0 20 30 30 Lordsburg 67 98 71 94 / 0 20 20 60 West El Paso Metro 76 97 74 93 / 0 20 20 30 Dell City 71 96 71 93 / 10 20 0 20 Fort Hancock 75 100 75 95 / 10 20 20 50 Loma Linda 69 91 68 86 / 0 20 10 30 Fabens 74 99 74 94 / 0 20 10 30 Santa Teresa 73 97 73 92 / 0 20 20 30 White Sands HQ 74 97 73 92 / 0 20 20 30 Jornada Range 69 96 69 92 / 0 20 20 40 Hatch 69 99 70 95 / 0 20 20 30 Columbus 71 100 73 95 / 0 20 30 20 Orogrande 70 94 69 90 / 0 30 10 30 Mayhill 57 84 55 80 / 10 30 0 50 Mescalero 57 84 55 80 / 10 40 10 60 Timberon 56 80 54 77 / 10 40 10 50 Winston 58 89 60 85 / 0 20 20 60 Hillsboro 65 95 65 91 / 0 20 20 50 Spaceport 67 95 68 92 / 0 20 20 30 Lake Roberts 58 92 60 87 / 0 30 30 80 Hurley 64 94 65 89 / 0 20 20 60 Cliff 65 99 68 95 / 0 20 20 70 Mule Creek 62 95 65 91 / 0 10 10 60 Faywood 66 93 67 89 / 0 20 20 60 Animas 67 98 69 94 / 0 20 30 50 Hachita 66 97 69 92 / 0 20 30 50 Antelope Wells 67 97 68 92 / 0 20 40 40 Cloverdale 66 93 67 89 / 0 20 30 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson