Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
483 FXUS64 KEPZ 082325 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 525 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 518 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Dry conditions Thursday and Friday. - Remnant tropical moisture from Hurricane Priscilla will flow over the area this weekend bringing areawide rain chances. - Another tropical system will flow over the area early next week continuing areawide rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Upper high continues to build into the area tonight and tomorrow, retrograding from central TX. Mid level capping inversion will keep the area dry Thursday and into Friday as high pressure influences us. Pressure gradient stays somewhat tight over the area but especially over western locations like the Lordsburg Playa and even the remainder of Hidalgo county and into Luna county. Breezy conditions will continue to be seen in those areas each afternoon and overnight time frames with wind speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Patchy blowing dust possible but confidence is low with regards to how low visibility reductions will become. High pressure will meander around the west TX area Friday before being shunted south into Mexico due to a passing trough Saturday into Sunday. Meanwhile, high pressure will guide Hurricane Priscilla`s moisture northward into Baja California, SoCal, and SW AZ Saturday morning but our rain chances begin Saturday afternoon west of the Continental Divide and will march eastward slowly throughout the weekend. Forecasted PW values are around 1.2-1.3" which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. If this pattern holds, this could even be a chance for record breaking PWs. Storms will be prone to heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding if they can tap into some instability. One thing that will help with the flooding threat is the fast storm motions that are expected both afternoons with speeds of 15-25 mph. The aforementioned trough looks to swing by Saturday evening and into Sunday which will help keep storm activity going throughout the overnight. We`re not done with the rain chances yet! Another tropical storm looks to make its way into the CONUS by early in the work week taking a very similar path that Priscilla took. Confidence is low with regards to this forecast so far out, but more rain chances could be on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Mid-high clouds stream overhead from the southwest tonight associated with TS Priscilla`s moisture. CIGs remain high around 20kft as storm chances remain confined to the higher terrain early this evening before dissipating around sunset. Dry conditions prevail for all terminals through the period as high pressure aloft builds in from the east. Gusts up to 20kts linger early this evening from E-SE and redevelop tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, winds AOB 10kts tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Low fire danger through the week ahead as min RH values stay well above critical thresholds. Thursday and Friday will be dry, min RHs will be 35-45% in the lowlands and 50-80% in the higher terrain the next few afternoons. Tropical remnants look to flow over the area this weekend allowing for good areawide rain chances. Storms will be prone to heavy rainfall if they are able to tap into some instability. Another round of tropical remnants possible starting early next week which could continue areawide rain chances. Breezy southeast winds will persist each overnight and afternoon starting tonight through Friday afternoon. 20 foot wind speeds will be 10-15 mph across the lowlands with the breeziest conditions seen near Deming and especially west of Deming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 86 67 86 67 / 20 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 80 56 81 56 / 20 0 10 0 Las Cruces 80 60 82 61 / 20 10 10 0 Alamogordo 80 58 83 60 / 40 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 58 42 61 43 / 40 20 10 0 Truth or Consequences 78 60 79 59 / 20 20 10 0 Silver City 75 56 76 56 / 10 10 10 0 Deming 83 63 85 63 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 82 64 83 64 / 10 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 83 66 84 67 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 83 58 84 58 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 87 64 88 64 / 20 0 10 0 Loma Linda 76 58 77 58 / 20 0 10 0 Fabens 86 64 86 64 / 20 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 82 63 83 63 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 81 62 82 63 / 30 10 10 0 Jornada Range 80 60 81 60 / 30 10 10 0 Hatch 83 61 84 60 / 20 10 10 0 Columbus 84 64 85 64 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 80 59 81 59 / 30 10 10 0 Mayhill 68 47 71 47 / 40 20 10 0 Mescalero 70 46 73 48 / 40 20 10 0 Timberon 68 45 69 46 / 30 10 10 0 Winston 70 50 72 50 / 20 20 20 0 Hillsboro 78 58 79 56 / 20 10 10 0 Spaceport 79 58 80 58 / 30 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 75 52 76 53 / 20 20 20 10 Hurley 76 58 78 57 / 10 10 10 0 Cliff 83 60 84 60 / 20 10 10 0 Mule Creek 78 56 80 58 / 30 20 10 10 Faywood 75 59 77 58 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 83 63 85 62 / 10 10 10 0 Hachita 82 62 83 61 / 10 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 83 60 85 60 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 79 60 80 60 / 10 10 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson