374
FXUS64 KEPZ 242030
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
230 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...


 -  Elevated fire weather conditions through Tuesday.

 -  Slight chance for thunderstorms beginning mid-week for mainly
    areas east of the Rio Grande.

 -  Seasonal temperatures each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Upper level ridge that brought the Borderland Region it`s first bout
of triple digit heat will continue progressing eastward as a weak
upper level low situates over the Desert SW. On Sunday, the
aforementioned upper level low will further weaken, with remnant SW
flow aloft over southern NM. This will mean fair weather conditions,
near seasonal temps, breezy SW winds, and mostly sunny skies for
Sunday. Much of the same can be expected for Memorial Day as the
flow aloft becomes zonal to quasi-zonal with near seasonal temps and
light breezes. For Tuesday, not much will change as weak upper level
ridging builds over NM.

Aforementioned in previous discussions, the dryline will come back
into play across the region. Low level east/southeasterly flow will
help transport Gulf moisture across the High Plains of TX and NM. At
this point in time (Wednesday afternoon), precipitation chances will
increase across eastern portions of the CWA. Both the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic models and their respected ensemble suites push
anomalous moisture to about the Rio Grande Valley during the
Wednesday timeframe, ultimately promoting isolated storms east of
the RGV. Dry afternoon mixing will push the dryline back east,
limiting storm chances for areas along and west of the RGV. Heading
into Thursday, the dryline and storm chances retreat back to the
east over the High Plains of TX and NM. However, guidance continues
to consistently agree that a Baja upper low will form over NWern
Mexico during the Thursday timeframe. This Baja low and it`s
associated strength and track will have implications for next Friday
through Sunday. That being said, daily afternoon and evening
shower/storm chances remain in the forecast next Friday through
Sunday for areas east of the Divide.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions expected with skies SCT-BKN250 through the period.
Winds becoming breezy at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots
this afternoon and evening, generally SW/W in direction. Winds
will slowly decrease after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend
and into early next week. An extremely dry airmass will continue to
anchor over the region with daily Min RH values between 5-15 percent
areawide through Tuesday. Weak SWerly flow aloft will promote low-
end breezy winds each afternoon. Temperatures will be right around
the seasonal average through most of the period.

On Wednesday, the local area will see the first (of a few) east wind
pushes that will advect moisture into the CWA, ultimately bringing
the dryline into the region. RH values will vary from west to east
across the CWA. Min RH values will be above critical thresholds over
the Sacramento Mtns Catron/Lincoln Counties, northern Sierra County,
and most of Hudspeth County. Elevated fire weather conditions will
exist for far southwestern NM where RH values will be below 15
percent. Where the highest moisture values reside (areas east of the
Rio Grande Valley), increased storm chances can be expected
Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  93  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  89  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               57  89  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               59  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  69  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    59  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              53  80  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   54  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  86  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                59  92  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             62  96  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  93  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  89  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  90  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  88  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  52  82  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                52  79  48  77 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 48  77  45  76 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  46  82  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                54  87  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  88  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  82  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   51  84  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    51  87  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               52  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  53  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   55  87  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  55  87  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  87  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  82  53  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers