Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
370 FXUS64 KEPZ 050437 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1037 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - The risk of heavy rainfall through Saturday is very much diminished as the circulation of Hurricane Lorena looks to stay off shore, and its remnant circulation largely staying south of our area. - Persistent cloud cover and light rain showers will be the main affect from Lorena, with somewhat steadier rainfall and slightly higher rain totals in the New Mexico Bootheel. - There`s now a better chance for more typical, but slow-moving thunderstorms over the Gila and Sacramento Mountains on Saturday as more instability develops. This will be the best window for localized flooding. Showers and thunderstorms will drift towards the lowlands Saturday night. - Cooler temperatures are still expected, especially Friday with the lingering showers and cloud cover. - Drier conditions look to prevail Monday into the middle part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 The main story continues to be Tropical Storm Lorena, which is barely holding on to tropical storm status as shear and relatively cool sea surface temperatures have taken their toll on the cyclone. Much of its mid and upper-level moisture has been stripped away from the low-level circulation, which is well off the Baja Peninsula Coast. Lorena`s moisture will continue to drive our weather through Sunday, at least in part. In the short term, a large shield of precip has developed ahead of it extending through Central New Mexico into Northern Mexico associated with the entrance region of an H250 jet and weak convergence at H850. Guidance shows this band of precip lasting through much of the night into the morning, ending after a weak s/w lifts out into the Plains. Much of Friday will be quiet as Lorena`s remnants remain to our southwest and heights remain fairly neutral. With high moisture content though and perhaps some subtle forcing, isolated to maybe scattered showers and storms will redevelop in the afternoon with best coverage/chances in the mountains. Although a few higher totals cannot be ruled out, more and more it looks like most locations will only see a trace to up to 0.10" or so through Friday night. Saturday looks to have the highest risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Lorena`s moisture is expected to remain in place though much of of the trough left behind from it will have filled in to our south. Nevertheless, a s/w trough is expected to round the top of the UL ridge centered over the Rockies, pushing southeast Saturday afternoon into the Front Range during the late evening hours. Breaks in the clouds and enhanced lift from the trough will foster scattered shower and thunderstorm development. PWAT values will range 1.25-1.50", so heavy rainfall will very much be a concern. The only thing that may limit flash flood potential is relatively progressive storm motion. Either way, the trough axis will exit into W. TX/ far Eastern NM Sunday morning taking rain/storm potential with it. Starting Sunday afternoon, an UL ridge will build over the Desert SW. Moisture will remain trapped beneath it as well as circulate around it. The location of the high will largely prevent thunderstorm development in spite of the moisture though the GFS and to lesser degree the Euro suggest mountains and far western areas may see a few storms Tuesday onward, but the NBM is not buying into this solution except for bringing some slight chance POPs (~20%) to the mountains. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. An area of showers will continue to move in from Mexico for much of the night though mainly affecting ELP and LRU with some uncertainty for DMN. Rain will be very light and is unlikely to drop VIS and is expected to end by 12z or so. Skies will remain BKN-OVC with bases as low as 060. After 12z ISO SHRA with some TS will continue across the area with some increase in coverage during the afternoon hours though chances of direct impacts for terminals is less than 30%. Winds will typically be from the southwest throughout the period with speeds 5 to 10 knots along with a few gusts to 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Low fire weather risk over the next few days as cloud cover and mostly light rain affects the area. The track of Hurricane Lorena has shifted, which will reduce the risk of heavy rainfall over the area. But, with higher instability expected Saturday over the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains, we`ll have a better chance for thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall Saturday afternoon. But really not anything worse than a mid-end monsoon day, and no widespread tropical rainfall. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will linger over the Sacramento Mountains Sunday, with drier conditions seen elsewhere. The drying will spread east through most of next week, with some meager moisture trying to work up from the south towards the middle of next week, mainly west of the Continental Divide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 80 67 85 / 40 40 40 50 Sierra Blanca 62 75 60 79 / 30 50 40 60 Las Cruces 63 77 61 81 / 40 40 40 50 Alamogordo 65 79 60 83 / 30 30 40 50 Cloudcroft 45 57 44 61 / 30 40 30 70 Truth or Consequences 63 80 62 81 / 10 30 40 60 Silver City 56 74 56 75 / 20 50 40 70 Deming 63 81 62 84 / 40 40 40 50 Lordsburg 62 79 62 82 / 20 50 30 60 West El Paso Metro 67 77 66 83 / 40 40 40 50 Dell City 65 78 62 82 / 20 30 30 40 Fort Hancock 68 78 66 84 / 40 60 40 60 Loma Linda 61 70 59 76 / 30 40 40 50 Fabens 67 77 65 83 / 40 50 30 50 Santa Teresa 65 75 63 82 / 40 40 30 50 White Sands HQ 67 78 64 82 / 40 40 40 60 Jornada Range 63 77 61 82 / 30 30 40 60 Hatch 65 81 62 84 / 30 30 30 60 Columbus 64 77 63 83 / 50 40 30 50 Orogrande 63 76 60 80 / 30 40 40 50 Mayhill 54 70 50 70 / 30 40 30 70 Mescalero 52 70 49 72 / 30 40 40 70 Timberon 50 65 47 69 / 30 40 30 60 Winston 51 75 52 74 / 10 40 40 70 Hillsboro 59 80 58 82 / 20 40 40 70 Spaceport 62 78 60 82 / 20 30 40 60 Lake Roberts 52 76 53 77 / 20 60 40 80 Hurley 57 76 57 78 / 20 50 40 70 Cliff 59 82 60 82 / 20 50 40 70 Mule Creek 55 78 57 79 / 20 40 40 70 Faywood 58 75 58 78 / 30 40 40 70 Animas 63 77 62 82 / 30 50 40 60 Hachita 61 75 60 81 / 40 50 30 60 Antelope Wells 60 73 60 79 / 60 70 40 70 Cloverdale 58 70 58 75 / 50 70 40 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown