343
FXUS64 KEPZ 070539 AAB
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday through Saturday,
   mainly over mountain areas.

 - A backdoor front Wednesday night into Thursday morning will
   shift winds east and create some 15 to 25 mph gusts.

 - Seasonable temperatures Thursday through Saturday, then warming
   up above normal by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

The upper level low pressure system is currently making its way
across central New Mexico, bringing in a stream of mid and upper
level clouds across the Borderland. A couple of showers and even a
thunderstorm or two could develop over the Gila and east over to the
Sacramento Mountains. Some light snowfall may also be observed along
the peaks of the Sacramento mountains. Daytime heating has allowed
for some stronger flow aloft along the Mexican border to mix down to
the surface, creating some gusty westerlies across the Borderland.
However, it appears that increased cloud cover early this afternoon
has temperatures a little bit cooler and winds a little bit lighter
so far, with gusts generally under 30 kts. As the low exits the
region tonight, skies clear and winds become light heading into
tomorrow.

A secondary weaker low will be digging south into the Sonoran Desert
and then opening up as it enters the New Mexico bootheel. This
system will bring increased moisture and forcing across western New
Mexico leading to another round of showers for the Gila and
Sacramento mountains. Instability looks quite meager, so thunder
potential is low, but there could be some locally heavier rainfall
amounts up to a quarter inch for parts of the Gila. Overnight a
backdoor cold front looks to push through west Texas and eastern New
Mexico, shifting winds east-northeast. The front looks to make it to
the Rio Grande Valley by around midnight, with winds gusting between
15 and 20 knots as it squeaks through the mountain passes during the
early morning hour on Thursday. Some models are hinting at shower
development along and behind the front in parts of west Texas where
there is some deeper moisture, although confidence is low for rain
chances in El Paso county. However, if enough moisture were to
advect into far eastern Hudspeth county, there would be enough
instability for thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon on
Thursday. Current forecast rain chances are around 25% along the
southeast border with Culberson county.

The rest of this week will be pretty uneventful as ridging begins to
build over the Desert Southwest. Increased easterly flow will lead
to some breeziness across the Borderland with some stronger gusts
near the New Mexico bootheel on Friday and Saturday. An embedded
shortwave on Saturday will bring some forcing and deeper moisture
over western New Mexico, increasing chances for showers and storms
over the Gila. The beginning of next week looks to be drier and
windier as an approaching Pacific trough will begin to lower
dewpoints and increase winds on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
throughout the period will steadily be climbing back into mid 80s
and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Showers have ended for the night and quiet, VFR conditions will
prevail. Isolated showers or thunderstorms over the Gila NF will
shift toward KTCS in the afternoon and produce sprinkles and/or
gusty outflow winds. Light showers may persist through the evening
as a shortwave/weak upper low crosses the bootheel, but few, if
any impacts, are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

No critical fire weather concerns for the rest of this week as a
couple of storm systems will continue to usher in some moisture into
western areas with chances of showers and thunderstorms for the
higher terrain each day through Saturday. Temperatures for the next
few days will continue to be below average for this time of year,
but temperatures will steadily be climbing heading into next week.
However, a backdoor cold front will shift winds ENE on Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, creating 15 to 20 kt gusts. Stronger
ESE flow will then persist over most of the Borderland heading into
the weekend, with some stronger gusts of 20 to 25 kt for western
areas near the NM bootheel.

An approaching Pacific system next week looks to lower dewpoints and
bring more widespread westerly wind gusts. This will create elevated
to critical fire weather conditions for western areas, particularly
for the Gila region where there is already the ongoing Iron Fire.
Minimum relative humidities look to drop to the single digits on
Monday and Tuesday for the majority of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  51  78  56  82 /  10   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            45  75  50  76 /   0   0  10  20
Las Cruces               43  73  47  77 /  10  10  10  10
Alamogordo               42  73  45  78 /  30  20  10  20
Cloudcroft               30  52  30  54 /  20  40  10  40
Truth or Consequences    46  70  48  76 /  20  40  20  10
Silver City              39  68  43  73 /  20  30  10  10
Deming                   43  76  48  80 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                40  75  46  80 /  10  20  10  10
West El Paso Metro       52  77  56  79 /  10   0  10  10
Dell City                45  77  48  79 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             48  82  53  84 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda               46  70  51  73 /  10   0  10  10
Fabens                   48  80  54  82 /  10   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             45  75  51  78 /  10  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           51  75  54  79 /  20  10  10  10
Jornada Range            40  74  43  79 /  20  20  10  10
Hatch                    41  77  45  81 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus                 47  78  51  81 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                44  73  48  77 /  20  10  10  20
Mayhill                  34  61  34  64 /  20  30  10  30
Mescalero                32  62  35  66 /  30  40  10  30
Timberon                 31  61  33  63 /  20  20  10  20
Winston                  31  63  33  69 /  20  50  30  20
Hillsboro                40  71  43  76 /  20  30  20  10
Spaceport                40  73  43  78 /  20  30  20  10
Lake Roberts             34  68  38  73 /  20  50  20  20
Hurley                   37  70  41  74 /  10  20  10  10
Cliff                    37  75  41  80 /  20  30  10  10
Mule Creek               37  70  41  77 /  20  30  10  10
Faywood                  40  70  44  74 /  10  20  10  10
Animas                   41  76  46  82 /  10  10   0   0
Hachita                  40  75  46  80 /  10  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           42  76  46  80 /   0  10   0   0
Cloverdale               42  71  47  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99