Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
086 FXUS64 KEPZ 101655 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1055 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1055 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Thunderstorms with better rain chances arrive through Monday as upper level disturbances take advantage of recycled moisture over the area. - Temperatures will begin decreasing a little, but most lowland areas will hold onto highs in the middle to upper 90s. - After a couple of midweek days with less thunderstorm coverage, increased moisture will lead to more storms by Friday into the weekend with some flooding possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Moisture has trickled upwards over the Borderland by about 0.10" each of the last couple of days with around 1" as of 12Z this morning. Surface dew points not overly impressive being around 50, but there is a breakdown of the upper ridge as a trough moves through the Central Rockies and we will be on the southern edge of this feature as it will extend NE-SW by 00Z. CAMS models showing a nice coverage of storms by 00Z which will push SE through the evening. Did raise PoPs up some, especially for areas along and east of the RGV. May even keep some light showers going out east after midnight with the trough still slowly moving through. Another disturbance will move through the trough over the High Plains and again extend into the area for Monday. Looks like better coverage of storms initially over the Sacs then it will depend on how outflows move onto the lowlands. Expect a little less coverage over the lowlands than today, but still at least 20 percent at any given point. Temperatures will again by above normal, but slightly cooler than today with highs struggling to reach 100 anywhere. For Tue-Thu, the upper high over the western US will be shifting eastward and be over the Central Plains by 12Z Fri. This puts the area under a NE flow each day with enough moisture around to keep afternoon/evening storms going. Looks like best coverage will be Tue with a downward trend for Wed/Thu as the high sits over the CO/NM border region. Temperatures continue to be slightly above normal and depending on how much cloud cover lingers, but most areas will continue to remain below 100 degrees with just a chance here or there around El Paso. As we transition into the weekend, the upper high weakens as it moves into the Ark-La-Tx region while a weak trough moves into CA. Ensemble means of both EC and GFS support this same overall pattern, so higher than normal confidence in this playing out than usual for days 6-7. This setup will bring increased moisture to the area with a more S to SE flow with PW`s approaching 1.4-1.5". This kind of moisture will lead to increased Flash Flooding potential. Temperatures will cool down to near normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 with scattered storms forming over the area mountains by 20Z and then spreading onto the lowlands as they move SE. All terminals have thunderstorm chances between 22Z-03Z with wind gusts over 40KTS and small hail possible. Skies will gradually become FEW-SCT120-150 by 12Z. Winds generally W to SW AOB 12KTS except during the period with thunderstorms when they will become more variable and gusty. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Thunderstorm chances increase areawide for the next couple of days as an upper trough moves through. Best chances will be in area mountains and then SE of Truth or Consequences to Deming. Temperatures will be a little cooler than recent days through the week with most areas struggling to get above 100 degrees and RH`s at or above 15%. There will be a down tick in storm coverage midweek, but moisture returns as a more typical monsoonal pattern sets up by the end of the week with near average temperatures expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 99 73 98 / 50 20 40 20 Sierra Blanca 71 94 67 92 / 40 40 40 40 Las Cruces 67 97 67 94 / 60 20 40 30 Alamogordo 65 94 66 93 / 50 30 30 30 Cloudcroft 52 71 48 68 / 50 50 30 50 Truth or Consequences 66 96 67 92 / 30 20 20 30 Silver City 63 91 61 89 / 50 40 30 60 Deming 65 99 67 95 / 50 20 40 30 Lordsburg 65 96 66 95 / 50 30 40 50 West El Paso Metro 72 96 72 95 / 50 20 40 20 Dell City 69 96 67 94 / 40 30 30 20 Fort Hancock 74 97 72 97 / 50 40 40 40 Loma Linda 67 89 65 88 / 50 30 40 30 Fabens 71 96 70 96 / 50 20 40 20 Santa Teresa 70 96 69 94 / 50 20 40 20 White Sands HQ 70 96 69 94 / 50 20 40 30 Jornada Range 65 96 65 93 / 50 20 40 30 Hatch 68 99 66 96 / 50 20 40 30 Columbus 70 99 70 95 / 50 20 40 30 Orogrande 67 93 66 92 / 50 20 40 30 Mayhill 58 81 56 78 / 40 50 30 70 Mescalero 56 83 54 81 / 50 50 40 50 Timberon 54 79 51 78 / 50 40 30 40 Winston 56 90 53 86 / 40 30 20 60 Hillsboro 62 95 60 92 / 40 30 30 50 Spaceport 64 97 63 92 / 40 20 30 30 Lake Roberts 54 90 53 87 / 50 40 20 70 Hurley 62 93 61 91 / 50 30 30 50 Cliff 59 96 57 93 / 40 30 30 60 Mule Creek 57 93 56 90 / 40 30 20 50 Faywood 62 93 63 90 / 50 30 30 50 Animas 66 97 66 95 / 50 30 40 50 Hachita 65 96 65 94 / 50 30 40 40 Antelope Wells 65 95 64 93 / 50 40 40 40 Cloverdale 62 90 63 89 / 50 50 40 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz