984
FXUS64 KEPZ 201135 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
535 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Lighter winds and warmer on Sunday.

 - Warm and dry through the week with generally light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

As the upper low responsible for the previous days` unsettled
weather whisks up into the Midwest, northwesterly flow aloft will
flatten, turning quasi-zonal. Dry conditions will follow in the wake
of the disturbance, bringing humidity levels back into the single
digits and teens. As the system ejects towards the Great Lakes, H5
pressure heights will rise, bringing a stark warm-up. High
temperatures will rise around a few to as many as 20F compared to
Saturday`s readings. This will be the opening act for a steady
warmup moving into early next week, where temperatures will climb
back to above average values. The regime of zonal flow aloft will
allow temperatures to moderate around midweek through the weekend.

Models hint towards the setup of the dryline early next week as
moisture begins to slosh around the West TX plains. While Tds will
tick up for the eastern counties of the Borderland, NBM PoPs seemed
a tad optimistic. As such, did carve those possibilities out until
such a time that models can come into better alignment on the idea.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period with
generally light winds and SKC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

While very dry conditions will prevail throughout the forecast
period, light winds will work to temper critical fire weather
conditions. As the system that brought unsettled weather over the
last few days exits towards the Midwest, a regime of zonal flow
aloft will set up. This will usher in an incredibly dry air mass
to the Borderland, where low double to single digit relative
humidity values will be widespread. Some relief may come to the
Sacramento Mountains and their eastern highlands towards the end
of the week as dryline moisture attempts to slosh into the eastern
forecast area. Winds will be generally light with typical
afternoon breezes through the week, following terrain influences
for their directions with daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69  45  84  50 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               71  43  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               70  43  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               49  32  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    72  43  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  41  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   73  42  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                72  39  83  43 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                74  40  86  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             76  47  90  52 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               66  48  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   74  46  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             71  44  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           72  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            72  41  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    74  40  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 73  44  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  44  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  63  35  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                59  35  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 59  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  67  34  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                71  42  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                72  39  82  43 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             68  29  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   70  39  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    73  37  82  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               69  37  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  68  42  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   73  40  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  72  40  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           73  43  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               70  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99