Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
222 FXUS64 KEPZ 051130 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 530 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Temperatures climb through Sunday before decreasing some early next week, then back up mid to late next week - Moisture slowly recovers on Sunday, bringing isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances, especially west && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The drying trend will become very apparent as an upper trough over eastern AZ sweeps through overnight tonight, cutting off our monsoonal moisture supply. PWATs are expected to decrease significantly, leading to lower Tds and reduced instability. As the upper high establishes itself over NM, thunderstorm chances will become very limited, mainly confined to the mountains. A backdoor front sliding down the eastern plains will help to invigorate lift with moist upslope flow, allowing isolated afternoon storms to initiate over the south central mts. 500mb temps remain relatively warm, however, hovering around -5C. Storms will struggle in this environment and what ones do develop will likely remain weak and short-lived. With clear skies and very warm 850mb temperatures, much of the lowlands can expect to see triple-digit highs. Expect highs in El Paso to reach around 100F to 102F. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern on Sunday, resulting in another hot and dry day. Thunderstorm chances will remain very low, primarily favoring to the higher elevations of the Sacramento Mts once again. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday, with widespread triple-digit heat for the El Paso metro and surrounding lowlands, potentially reaching up to 102F in some areas. The upper high will drift slightly towards the AZ/NM border on Monday. This subtle shift may allow for a very slight increase in mid-level moisture, primarily from the east/northeast. While not leading to widespread storm coverage, isolated afternoon thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly over the mountains and possibly some eastern parts of the CWA. Temperatures will remain well above normal, generally in the upper 90s to low 100s for the lowlands. As the high continues to slowly weaken and shift, mid-level easterly to northeasterly flow will persist, potentially bringing in a bit more moisture. This pattern, while not ideal for extensive monsoon activity, could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will begin to moderate slightly but will still be very warm. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Much drier air continues to stream over the region. This means generally sunny skies with only FEW to SCT, mostly fair weather clouds today. Thus storms are also not expected, especially across the lowlands. VFR conditions can be expected to persist through the forecast period at all termainals. A weak surface trough is slung across the region, as a very minor push arrives from the east. This will make for variable winds across the region. Speeds will be generally low, with minor afternoon breezes to 20kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Warming temperatures and lower dew points will lead to a decrease in min RH values, with much of the lowlands falling below 15% for tomorrow and Sunday afternoon. Rain/storm chances will all but disappear except across the Bootheel. Winds will remain light, however, topping out around 10 MPH. As we go into Sunday, moisture begins to increase again leading to scattered mountain and isolated to scattered lowland storms. Rain/storm chances will favor areas west of the Divide. Vent categories will range fair to very good each afternoon, largely limited by weak transport winds courtesy of high pressure aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 102 76 101 76 / 0 0 10 20 Sierra Blanca 94 68 92 67 / 0 0 20 10 Las Cruces 99 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 30 Alamogordo 100 69 97 70 / 0 10 30 10 Cloudcroft 79 52 74 52 / 20 20 60 10 Truth or Consequences 97 70 98 71 / 0 0 10 30 Silver City 91 64 92 64 / 10 10 30 40 Deming 100 69 101 71 / 0 0 0 40 Lordsburg 96 68 100 69 / 10 10 20 40 West El Paso Metro 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 10 20 Dell City 100 70 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 102 73 100 75 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 94 69 92 67 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 101 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 99 72 99 73 / 0 0 10 30 White Sands HQ 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 20 30 Jornada Range 99 68 99 70 / 0 0 20 30 Hatch 101 68 102 70 / 0 0 10 40 Columbus 99 73 101 75 / 0 0 0 40 Orogrande 98 70 97 70 / 0 0 20 10 Mayhill 88 57 84 56 / 20 20 50 10 Mescalero 89 58 85 57 / 20 20 50 10 Timberon 86 57 82 55 / 20 20 40 10 Winston 89 58 89 59 / 10 10 30 30 Hillsboro 97 66 97 67 / 10 10 20 40 Spaceport 97 66 98 68 / 0 0 20 20 Lake Roberts 92 59 93 60 / 10 10 40 40 Hurley 94 64 95 64 / 10 10 20 30 Cliff 97 65 100 67 / 10 10 20 30 Mule Creek 93 63 95 64 / 10 10 20 30 Faywood 93 66 95 67 / 10 0 20 40 Animas 96 68 98 70 / 10 10 20 50 Hachita 95 68 98 69 / 10 10 10 40 Antelope Wells 95 68 97 70 / 20 20 20 50 Cloverdale 90 66 93 68 / 20 20 30 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird