Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
272 FXUS64 KEPZ 090441 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1041 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Drier and somewhat breezy conditions Thursday and Friday. - Remnant tropical moisture will flow over the area Saturday through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain threat will be favored in western areas. - Temperatures will be near or above normal through Saturday, then cooling early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 For Thu/Fri, the upper high to the east shifts closer to us over W TX, nudging some of the moisture into AZ. PWs remain above normal through Fri (about 1.1"; normal is around 0.6"), but the mid-level capping will limit our instability and convective potential. As a result, mainly dry conditions are forecast for the short-term. The pressure gradient stays somewhat tight through Fri, especially in western areas closer to where surface troughing develops in Sonora/southern AZ. E-SE winds remain on the breezy side, generally 10-20 mph, stronger near the NM-AZ border. For the weekend and early next week, our attention shifts to the E-Pac with multiple tropical systems rolling up the Baja. First is now TS Priscilla, which is currently off the southern coast of Baja and forecast to weaken/shear off before reaching the coast on Fri. Its moisture gets scooped up by a Pacific trough Fri-Sat, bringing highly anomalous moisture to AZ/Four Corners region. As the trough progresses eastward Sat night/Sun, we`ll get the near- record moisture content as well. PWs are modeled to be around 1.4" at EPZ Sat night according to the latest ensemble guidance with some members above 1.5". Record PWs for mid-Oct are about 1.2", so there`s a high chance we break a record this weekend. Confidence is high in this pattern, but we`re less certain if all this moisture will produce a risk of flash flooding. The passing trough will provide some lift for storms to develop, but extensive cloud cover could limit instability and leave us with more stratiform precip. Confidence should grow by Friday on how convective the precip will be and the risk levels for heavy rainfall. NBM 90th percentile QPF for Sat shows totals up to 2" while the median is generally near 0.5". Rain/storm chances increase from west to east Sat with western areas favored to see flash flooding into Sun AM. On Sunday, moisture associated with the second tropical feature (likely to be TS Raymond) reaches our area as it takes a similar path to Priscilla, parallel to the SW Mexican coast. The upper trough will be ejecting into the Plains, so we won`t have as much forcing on Sunday with this other batch of tropical moisture, at least initially. There`s uncertainty regarding Raymond`s exact path and where the deepest moisture sets up Sun/Mon, but we will most likely see continued near-record PWs. The global ensembles are focusing the heaviest QPF Sun in SW NM where there is currently a Slight ERO in place (and even a high-end Slight more into Tucson`s CWA). Another feature to keep an eye on is a second Pacific trough to the northwest early next week, which may provide some lift and scoop up the moisture. We`re unsure if this trough will be close enough and/or timed correctly to enhance our storm chances into Tue. Regardless of these uncertainties, areas west of the RGV will again be favored to see storms early next week. Thereafter, we get fully into the westerly, mid-latitude flow, allowing dry conditions to return into the middle of next week with some breezy winds. Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal through Sat. Temps fall back to below average early next week with the expected increase in cloud cover and rain chances. Rebounding temps are then expected to end the period as the moisture is flushed out to the east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Mid-high clouds stream overhead from the southwest into the daytime associated with TS Priscilla`s moisture. CIGs remain high around 20kft, except for KTCS which has a pocket of lower clouds hanging around. Dry conditions prevail for all terminals through the period as high pressure aloft builds in from the east. Gusts up to 20kts develop during the afternoon. Otherwise, winds AOB 10kts through the AM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Low fire danger through the week ahead as min RH values stay well above critical thresholds. Thursday and Friday will be dry, min RHs will be 35-45% in the lowlands and 50-80% in the higher terrain the next few afternoons. Tropical remnants look to flow over the area this weekend allowing for good areawide rain chances. Storms will be prone to heavy rainfall if they are able to tap into some instability. Another round of tropical remnants possible starting early next week which could continue areawide rain chances. Breezy southeast winds will persist each overnight and afternoon starting tonight through Friday afternoon. 20 foot wind speeds will be 10-15 mph across the lowlands with the breeziest conditions seen near Deming and especially west of Deming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 85 67 86 68 / 20 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 80 57 81 57 / 20 10 10 10 Las Cruces 81 62 82 63 / 20 10 10 10 Alamogordo 82 59 83 61 / 40 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 59 42 61 44 / 40 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 79 60 80 60 / 20 30 10 10 Silver City 75 56 76 57 / 10 20 10 10 Deming 84 64 85 64 / 10 10 10 10 Lordsburg 82 64 83 64 / 10 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 83 67 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 Dell City 83 59 84 58 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 87 64 88 65 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 77 58 77 59 / 20 10 10 10 Fabens 86 64 87 65 / 20 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 82 64 83 64 / 10 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 82 63 83 63 / 30 10 10 10 Jornada Range 81 61 81 61 / 30 10 10 10 Hatch 84 62 84 62 / 20 10 10 10 Columbus 85 63 86 65 / 10 10 10 10 Orogrande 80 60 81 60 / 30 10 10 10 Mayhill 68 47 71 48 / 40 10 10 10 Mescalero 71 46 73 48 / 40 20 10 10 Timberon 68 46 69 47 / 30 10 10 10 Winston 71 51 72 51 / 20 30 10 10 Hillsboro 78 58 79 57 / 20 20 10 10 Spaceport 80 59 81 60 / 30 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 75 52 76 53 / 20 20 10 10 Hurley 77 57 79 57 / 10 20 10 10 Cliff 83 60 84 61 / 20 20 10 10 Mule Creek 79 56 80 57 / 30 30 10 10 Faywood 77 58 77 59 / 10 20 10 10 Animas 84 63 85 63 / 10 10 10 10 Hachita 82 62 83 62 / 10 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 84 61 85 61 / 10 10 10 10 Cloverdale 79 60 81 60 / 10 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson