Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
182 FXUS64 KEPZ 210445 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1045 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1029 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - Moisture levels will begin to lower today, but we will still have enough moisture to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms. - From Thursday through Sunday, storm chances will be focused in the Gila Region with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. - Moisture and storm chances rebound early next week. - Temperatures will remaining a little above average through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 A shift in the upper-level pattern will usher in drier air from the Central Plains for Thursday through the weekend. This will result in a significant decrease in the chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. While some isolated storm activity is still expected, particularly in the higher elevations of the mountains, the desert lowlands will become increasingly dry. Temperatures will remain near-normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s. The threat for flash flooding will greatly diminish, but the possibility of gusty outflow winds from any isolated storms will increase thanks to the widening Td depressions. The drier pattern is expected to persist through the beginning of the next work week. The persistence of the Four Corners High will continue to suppress moisture and convection, shunting the monsoonal moisture to the Deep South. As a result, storm chances will be confined almost exclusively to the area mts, with very little to no activity in the desert lowlands. Temperatures will remain consistent with the seasonal normal. The air mass will remain relatively dry, and any lingering storm activity will be isolated in nature, with the primary threat being strong outflow winds. By the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, there may be a slight increase in moisture as the stubborn high dips towards TX, which could lead to an increase in thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Shwrs/tstms currently in wrn NM will exit into AZ around the start of the TAF period, aft which conditions will become calm areawide. Light and vrb winds will prevail along with decreasing cloud cover overnight. Drier air moving into the area will limit tstm coverage Thursday, with isold development favoring the mts. Widening Td depressions could lead to sudden and strong downbursts near tstms in the aftn. Sely to ely sfc winds in the aftn are expected with gusts under 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1009 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 We will see another day with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms today. Storms will develop first over area mountains and then move down into the lowlands. These storms could create strong and variable winds. Away from the storms, our winds will stay well below critical levels this afternoon through the weekend. Later tonight drier air will begin to push into the region. This drier air will reduce our rain chances for Thursday through Sunday. Best chances for rain after today will be in area mountains, mainly the Gila region. We may see no storms for the weekend. Min RH`s, as you might imagine, are headed lower. Min RH`s today will be at or above 25% across the area. We will slowly dry out, so that by Saturday min RH`s in the lowlands will be in the teens and in area mountains it will be in the 20`s. Min RH`s will be on the rise early next week as moisture and rain chances return to the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 96 74 97 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 89 62 90 / 20 10 0 0 Las Cruces 67 92 67 93 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 66 92 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 70 48 70 / 10 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 68 92 69 92 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 63 87 63 87 / 20 40 20 20 Deming 68 96 69 96 / 20 10 10 0 Lordsburg 69 94 69 95 / 20 20 10 10 West El Paso Metro 73 93 73 93 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 66 92 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 71 93 69 94 / 20 10 0 0 Loma Linda 65 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 70 92 69 93 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 92 69 93 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 93 72 93 / 20 10 0 0 Jornada Range 68 91 68 92 / 20 10 10 0 Hatch 68 94 69 94 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 70 94 70 94 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 90 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 80 53 81 / 10 10 0 10 Mescalero 53 82 53 82 / 10 10 0 10 Timberon 52 78 51 79 / 10 10 0 10 Winston 57 86 56 86 / 20 20 10 10 Hillsboro 64 92 64 92 / 20 20 10 10 Spaceport 66 92 67 93 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 88 57 88 / 20 50 20 30 Hurley 63 90 64 90 / 20 30 10 10 Cliff 65 94 66 95 / 20 50 20 20 Mule Creek 63 90 63 91 / 30 50 20 30 Faywood 65 89 64 89 / 20 20 10 10 Animas 68 95 67 95 / 20 10 10 0 Hachita 67 92 67 93 / 20 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 66 92 66 92 / 20 10 10 0 Cloverdale 65 89 65 88 / 20 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99