Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
415 FXUS02 KWNH 250713 PREEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 212 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 02 2024 ...Messy Thanksgiving travel possible in the eastern U.S., including potential northern tier winter weather... ...Overview... As the medium range period begins Thanksgiving Day, northern stream and initially southern stream shortwave energy will combine to create a large scale mean trough over the eastern two-thirds of the country. Guidance continues to show developing low pressure ahead of the evolving eastern upper trough but with significant detail differences affecting sensible weather. Precipitation is generally expected across the Eastern Seaboard on Thanksgiving, including some potential for snow in the Interior Northeast especially in higher elevations, but there is lower than average confidence in precipitation amounts/placement/type. The deepening upper trough and cold surface high pressure will increase the coverage of colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies through late week and into the weekend. The cold westerly flow should lead to some possibly heavy lake effect snows by the weekend behind the low pressure system. Meanwhile in the West, near average temperatures are expected with just some light precipitation possible at times. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... While model guidance remains agreeable for the large scale pattern, embedded shortwaves within the broad eastern trough are still quite uncertain even as the period begins Thursday, leading to impactful surface low placement and strength differences. The control ECMWF runs have been very consistent on the northwestern side with the surface low track as a stronger/faster shortwave (atop the Ohio Valley or so, while other models are generally over the central Plains early Thursday) amplifies the trough more quickly than other guidance. This northwestern low track does have ample support from the ECMWF ensemble members (that do seem underdispersive given the spread in other model suites) and from the UKMET. Meanwhile other models for the most part are more suppressed with the low, tracking over the Southeast before the turn northward across the western Atlantic. These include GFS, CMC, and AI/ML model runs. GEFS and CMC ensemble members indicate ample spread. More specifically, the 12Z CMC was not favored for this forecast because it showed a secondary low becoming dominant and appearing farther south of other guidance by 12Z Friday. The 18Z GFS was rather fast with its low track and thus preferred the 12Z run. The WPC forecast tried to strike a balance between the most suppressed and the farthest northwest solutions. The GEFS mean seemed to be a reasonable middle ground and thus favored it in the model blend even early on. The newer 00Z GEFS mean has jumped north a bit though, which may indicate a coming trend toward the ECMWF type low track. The low track will of course yield considerable QPF differences. The NBM QPF seemed to do a reasonable job in this cycle for a middle ground forecast; for example it showed some QPF in the Northeast but lower than the ECMWF. The early part of the medium range period actually seems to be the most uncertain, and unfortunately most impactful due to holiday travel. Models generally agree for the upper trough to broaden into late week as energy digs through the northern Rockies/Plains and then move eastward, and the newer 00Z models appear in even better agreement after some detail disagreements in the 12/18Z cycle. Brief ridging in the Northwest Thursday should reform over the weekend, and last into early next week unless CMC runs that are alone in having a shortwave move through are corrected. Farther south there is some southern stream troughing with embedded energy that gradually drifts through the eastern Pacific toward California. Some model differences are seen with this, especially by early next week when the timing differences start to make the pattern out of phase between models. Fortunately the 00Z models seem to be coming in in better alignment. The WPC forecast was based on a blend of the deterministic models and some GEFS mean early in the period, and ramped up the proportion of ensemble means to over half later in the period to provide an intermediate solution. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Precipitation is likely to spread across much of the East on Thanksgiving Day. The ample model spread with the surface low track significantly limits confidence in the details beyond that, however. In a general sense, some moderate rain could spread across the Southeast into the Carolinas near the cold front, with amounts likely staying below any flooding hazard thresholds. Closer to the low track, a round of precipitation could move through the Mid- Atlantic to Northeast. While lower elevation/coastal/southern areas will most likely stay rain, the Day 4 Winter Weather Outlook indicates the highest probabilities for snow greater than 0.25" liquid equivalent across higher elevations of the Interior Northeast. But the axis and amounts of snow will be quite dependent on the uncertain surface low track, and confidence remains below average regarding specifics of precipitation coverage/type/amounts. Continue to monitor forecasts as details become better refined over the coming days. After the surface low exits, the pattern will become favorable for several days of lake effect snow with cold westerly flow over the Great Lakes. Localized heavy snow amounts are possible in the typically favored areas. Elsewhere, a quieter period is likely for the West precipitation- wise. Parts of California may see light to locally modest precipitation at times later this week into the weekend with some energy aloft, with some light amounts perhaps spilling into the Southwest. The same goes for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Models are starting to show a general signal for a round of light to moderate snow across parts of the northern Plains on Friday into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Saturday. Over the weekend and early next week, return flow of moisture could start to come into the western Gulf Coast region for some shower activity. A surge of Arctic air including one or more reinforcing waves/fronts will increase the coverage of below normal temperatures from the northern-central Plains into the East later this week into the weekend. The northern Plains will take the brunt of the cold air, with highs in the single digits and teens and lows well below 0F in some areas, equating to 15-25F below normal. The cold temperatures overspreading much of the remaining lower 48 east of the Rockies will be moderated in comparison but still yield highs of 10-15F below normal across the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Appalachians Friday and Saturday. A secondary surge of cold air will bring those areas down to 15-20F below average into early next week. The Eastern Seaboard can expect gradually cooling temperatures Friday through Monday toward 10-15F negative anomalies. The southern tier will experience a cooling trend as well, after a warmer than average Thanksgiving morning in the Southeast before the cold frontal passage. Another cold front early next week could even bring the Florida Peninsula down to a bit below normal. Meanwhile, expect temperatures to gradually warm in the West as the northeastern Pacific upper ridge approaches, from a bit below normal to a bit above normal. Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$