Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
318 FXUS02 KWBC 051859 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025 ...Severe weather/heavy rain threat for the South into next week... ...Interior West to South Texas heatwave into early next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance seem reasonably well clustered for much of next week, bolstering forecast confidence. However, lingering embedded system variances continue to vary local weather/hazard focus. Favor a composite of latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET model and GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble guidance along with favorably supporting guidance from machine learning guidance and the National Blend of Models. This blend provides a middle of spectrum depiction of system and hazard threats that seems consistent with individual feature predictability. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Showers and thunderstorms will continue along front that stretches through the Lower Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi Valleys and Mid- Atlantic back through the Southern Plains. Greater rainfall rates and accumulations are likely to focus over portions of Oklahoma and Texas where there will be pooled Gulf moisture and high instability to tap. The Storm Prediction Center continues to show the potential for severe weather across the South/Central Plains east into the Southeast. The Day 4/Sunday WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) maintains the broad Marginal Risk from the Texas Panhandle to the Southeast Coast with an embedded Slight risk area along the Red River into the Ark-La- Tex. The front will advance southward by Monday and the precipitation will be widespread across the Gulf states, Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern parts of the Southern Plains. The WPC Day 5/Monday ERO continues to show a broad Marginal Risk that stretches from eastern New Mexico to western Georgia. Given the variances on the location of the highest QPF opted to keep the threat potential as a level 1 although there are signal for local 2 to 4 inches which may require a future upgrade to a Slight should agreement improve, especially for areas with precursor rainfall to moisten soils. Meanwhile, an amplified closed upper trough/low will dig through the north-central U.S. into next week and force a well defined wrapping frontal system down across much of the central and eastern U.S. with overall slow but steady system progression. Expect the Midwest/Great Lakes will receive moderate rainfall over the weekend, with focus shifting into the Northeast early-mid next week. Expect the lead front over The South will dissipate while this northern stream front becomes dominant to rejuvenate rain and thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Southeast next week. The Interior West to South Texas will experience early season heat into early next week. For South Texas daily readings will climb into the 100s, with heat indices upwards of 110F. The greatest temperature anomalies will produce more widespread record values across the Interior Northwest U.S. underneath mean upper ridging. This region will observe readings 15 to 25 degrees warmer than average, with some interior locations approaching triple digits. Even cities like Seattle will reach the mid 80s. Above normal temperatures will stretch to the central Great Basin and Desert Southwest where temperatures more typically reach 100 degrees by June. Heat safety information can be found at: weather.gov/heat. Campbell/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$