


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
836 FXUS02 KWBC 052001 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 12 2025 ...General Overview... A trough-ridge-trough upper-air pattern is forecast to set up across the mainland U.S. with increasing amplitude through the medium- range period into next weekend. A deep upper low that is on track to develop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest mid to late week will open the door for tropical moisture to be drawn northward and potentially through the interior western U.S. by next weekend. Uncertainty remains high regarding the ultimate track of tropical cyclone Priscilla in the eastern Pacific where the tropical moisture originates. Meanwhile, there is increasing model signals for a coastal storm to form off the southeastern U.S. and then track up the Mid-Atlantic coast next weekend. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The medium-range period will begin with a major synoptic trough fracturing off to the southwest British Columbia on Wednesday. Model solutions are now in agreement on closing the upper low off to the west of the Pacific Northwest Thursday-Friday before slowly swinging it onshore into the West Coast during the weekend. Meanwhile, there remains a high degree of uncertainty on the ultimate track of tropical cyclone Priscilla as it is forecast to reach a position west of Baja California next weekend. The ECMWF cluster remains the guidance that brings Priscilla faster and closer to the Mexican coast. This would result in an earlier arrival time and more abundant moisture from Priscilla to reach the Southwest and then further downstream through the interior western U.S. The GFS has sped up some but still significantly lags the ECMWF solution. The 12Z ECMWF adopted an even faster solution on drawing Priscilla`s moisture into the western U.S. Meanwhile, models have been trending toward establishing a stronger high pressure system over New England late this week leading to a stronger northeasterly flow down the Eastern Seaboard, along with a stronger coastal front to linger just off the coast of the southeastern U.S. The last few runs of the EC-AIFS have settled into a solution with a rather notable nor`easter centered near the North Carolina coast on Sunday. The latest from the 12Z ECMWF also has switched to a more amplified solution with a major nor`easter forming and tracking just off the East Coast through next weekend. All in all, there is increasing model signals for a coastal storm to form off the southeastern U.S. and then track up the Mid- Atlantic coast next weekend. In addition, there could be an increased threat of heavy rain across southeastern Florida late this week as lingering tropical moisture may interact with the beginning stage of formation of the coastal storm. The WPC medium-range forecasts were based on the consensus of 40% from the 00Z EC/CE mean, 40% from the 06Z GFS/GEFS, and 20% from the 00Z CMC/CMC mean. This blend agrees reasonably well with the previously WPC forecast package but with a better-defined front and coastal wave off the East Coast, and the development of a low pressure system farther north into the lee of the Canadian Rockies during next weekend. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Lingering moisture anomaly in New Mexico on Wednesday with potential presence of a stalled frontal boundary warrants maintaining a Marginal Risk of flash flooding for Day 4 over the Sacramento Mountains and the higher elevations to the west. An influx of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific ahead of Priscilla may reach into the Desert Southwest Thursday night. This solution is driven by the ECMWF which has trended even more progressive with this moisture than other guidance. Meanwhile, the GFS, which favors much less involvement with Priscilla, nonetheless brings precipitation into the Southwest and then up through the Intermountain West, albeit one day later than the ECMWF for the weekend. It appears that the strong dynamics associated with the upper low off the West Coast alone would support expansion of precipitation up through the interior western U.S. with wintry precipitation across the higher elevations in the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies by the coming weekend. A cold front progresses through the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. As of now this appears progressive enough to consider it beneficial rain and no ERO at this time. Meanwhile, the trend toward a nor`easter near the East Coast will need to be monitored this weekend for significant rain and wind potentials. Cool conditions with max temperatures five or so degrees below normal shift east with a cold front from the Great Lakes Wednesday through the Northeast and Eastern Seaboard for Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile, ridging over the Gulf Coast drifts west through Texas and amplifies up the Rockies this weekend which will maintain above normal temperatures over south-central states through next weekend with much above normal temperatures expected to build through the Great Plains Thursday through this weekend. Kong/Jackson Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$