681
FXUS02 KWBC 140700
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Jun 21 2026


...Hazardous Heat shift from the West/Southwest to the South....

...Excessive Rain/Flooding threat from the Midwest to the South...


...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance solution clustering remains much better than average,
overall bolstering forecast confidence through much of this medium
range period. The larger scale pattern evolution aloft features a
hot West/Southwest to southern Plains ridge shift and periodic
downstream energy reinforcement from Canada into a central to
eastern U.S. mean trough position that favors Midwest/Ohio
Valley/Mid-South heavy rainfall. This amplified pattern should
trend more zonal late week as shortwave energies working through
the Northwest flatten the ridge as downstream trough energies lift
out. The interaction of tropical features/moisture slated to feed
from the Gulf to the western and central Gulf Coast states portends
locally copious QPF potential, but details are uncertain given the
varied handling/focus of impactful lower latitude system energies.

Overall, a favored broad compatible model/ensemble mean/machine
learning guidance blend provides a solid forecast basis with
lingering smaller scale system variances mitigated as consistent
with individual predictability. This solution is in line with the
National Blend of Models and offers great WPC product continuity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A wavy front will settle and trail back from the Southeast U.S.
through the Gulf Coast and southern Rockies/Plains this week and
provide a focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Gulf tropical
feature/deep moisture return and instability will interact with
the generally west to east oriented front to fuel an heavy
rainfall/flash flooding threat to include potential for the
repeat/training of activity. The WPC Day 4/5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) for Wednesday/Thursday show Marginal to Slight Risk
areas for flooding for the western to central Gulf Coast/lower
Mississippi Valley and the threat extends into later in the week.

Farther north, a heavy rain and thunderstorm runoff threat is
meanwhile also slated mid-later week as a series of energetic and
progressive northern stream shortwave and surface lows/fronts dig
from the north-central U.S. through the Midwest/Ohio Valley states.
WPC Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday ERO Marginal and Slight
Risk areas shift slowly southeastward over the region. There are
also coinsiding SPC severe weather threat areas to monitor there
and to the Mid-Atlantic. Threat potential may persist later next
week as systems refire activity, but also expand focus into the
south-central U.S./Mid-South and into the East with frontal push.

Early week ridging over the West will lead to much above normal
temperatures and a moderate to locally major HeatRisk, especially
into parts of the Southwest. With time, the heat will spread into
the south-central U.S. with more widespread major HeatRisk expected
for parts of central Texas. Locally elevated heat threats look to
overspread the Gulf Coast and Southeast/Florida to also monitor.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw












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