223
FXUS02 KWBC 220744
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 25 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 29 2026


...Southeast U.S. Heavy Rainfall/Flooding threat into Saturday...

...West-Central to Southern U.S. Hazardous Heat this weekend into
next week as monsoonal rains focus over the Four Corners states...


...Pattern overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Latest guidance shows good agreement and forecast confidence with
larger scale upper pattern development and persistence this
weekend into next week. The amplified and blocky pattern will
feature a warming Intermountain West/Southwest/Rockies/Plains/South
ridge sandwiched between unsettling troughs just off the West Coast
and over the East. There remain uncertainties with individual
systems working through the flow and local sensible weather
impacts, but differences seem reasonably mitigated by a favored
broad guidance blend as consistent with individual predictability.
WPC product and threat messaging continuity is well maintained.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Broad upper ridge influence offers Major to Extreme HeatRisk
threat areas broadly this weekend into next week from the
Southwest/Intermountain West/Rockies through the Northern Plains
down through the south-central U.S. and the South. Expect spotty
record highs and more widespread record overnight lows to limit
relief from the heatwave.

Some moderating flow with and around the weatern periphery of the
upper ridge will occur as significant monsoonal moisture feeds
into the Southwest and Intermountain West/Rockies this week, with
the next influx of moisture from Mexico possible early next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potentials. Sensitive
places such as burn scars, steep terrain, etc. would be the most
vulnerable to possible flooding concerns. WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risks are now in place through the weekend.

Elsewhere, convection with enhanced heavy rains are forecast to
linger over the Southeast through Saturday given support aloft and
slow/wavy frontal progression, with additional activity back
through the Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley as covered by an
ERO Marginal Risk area. Ample subsequent northern stream system
energies set to dig into the upper trough position over the East
should suppprt organized enhanced to heavy convective rainfall
potential from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley this weekend through the
Eastern Seaboard through early-mid next week.

Persistent upper troughing and embedded moisture feed offers mid-
summer weekend light rain chances to clip the Pacific Northwest.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw





























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