125
FXUS02 KWBC 131811
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 20 2026


...Building Heat from the West/Southwest to South-Central U.S....

...Heavy Rain/Flooding threats over the Midwest and the South...


...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance continues to show better than average agreement on the
large scale pattern during the medium range period, with some
typical variations in the smaller scale details which may take
until the short range to fully resolve. This features an initially
amplified Western ridge and Great Lakes to Eastern trough which is
periodically reinforced with shortwaves/energies from central
Canada. The pattern should ease and become more zonal by later in
the period as energy moves into the West acting to flatten the
ridge and Eastern U.S. shortwaves begin to push more eastward.
Heavy rainfall and convection threats should tend to focus
initially across the Midwest into the East, with a push with time
towards the South.

The WPC forecast for today used a general model blend of the
deterministic guidance for the first half of the period,
transitioning towards half ensemble mean blend by the end of the
period to mitigate differences. Overall maintained good continuity
with the previous WPC forecast, and the NBM was a very reasonable
starting point for the gridded forecast.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A wavy front will settle and trail back from the Southeast U.S.
through the Gulf Coast and southern Rockies/Plains next week and
provide a focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Deep
Gulf/tropical moisture return and instability will interact with
the generally west to east oriented front to fuel an heavy
rainfall/flash flooding threat to include potential for the
repeat/training of activity. The WPC Day 4/5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) for Tuesday/Wednesday have Marginal to Slight Risk
areas for a flooding potential focus over the western/central Gulf
Coast states/vicinity and this threat may extend into the later
week too.

Elsewhere, an organized heavy rain and thunderstorm threat is
meanwhile slated to develop and linger next week as a series of
energetic and progressive northern stream shortwave and associated
surface lows/fronts dig from the north-central U.S. through the
Midwest. A WPC Day 5/Wednesday ERO Marginal Risk area centered over
the Midwest continues to be highlighted, coinciding with SPC
convective areas too. Threat potential will persist later next week
as systems refire activity, but also expand focus into the south-
central U.S./Mid- South and the east/northeast U.S..

Early week ridging over the West will lead to much above normal
temperatures and a moderate to locally major HeatRisk, especially
into parts of the Southwest. With time, the heat will spread into
the south-central U.S. with more widespread major HeatRisk expected
for parts of central Texas. Elevated heat threats look to
overspread the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Florida as well.

Schichtel/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw










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