941
FXUS02 KWBC 190756
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 22 2026 - 12Z Sun Jul 26 2026


...Hazardous Heat focus over the South this week may expand to the
Northern Plains and the Desert Southwest into next weekend...

...Monsoonal rains for the Southwest/Intermountain West/Rockies...

...East/Southeast U.S. Heavy Rains to work over the Gulf Coast with
possible tropical low development being monitorred by the NHC...


...Overview...

Quite hot and muggy conditions will focus over the South for the
coming week as northern tier shortwaves and moderating surface
fronts bring rounds of locally heavy rains and a strong to severe
thunderstorm focus mid/later week down over the Mid-Atlantic. Lead
activity over the South/Southeast will be fueled by Gulf/tropical
moisture and the NHC is investigating system genesis. Elsewhere,
ample monsoonal moisture will continue to stream from the Southwest
and Intermountain West/Rockies to the Plains to fuel enhanced
showers and thunderstorms as a closed upper high shifts to the
southern Plains before re-expanding heat up through the Plains and
into the Southwest as monsoonal flow may ease into next weekend.
Meanwhile, current Tropical Storm Elida is forecast by NHC to
dissipate over the next few days while lifting northward off the
West Coast ~130W with lead moisture feeding up the West Coast.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Latest guidance is overall agreeable on the larger scale pattern,
but uncertainties are still evident with the smaller scale details
including local convection and possible tropical impacts. NHC is
monitoring the northeast Gulf for tropical system genesis. A
favored composite of compatible model/ensemble mean and machine
learning guidance provides a solid forecast basis in line with the
National Blend of Models and WPC product continuity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Flow around a main upper ridge will continue to draw significant
monsoonal moisture into the Southwest and Intermountain
West/Rockies this week, but may ease next weekend. Moisture will
fuel scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with potential
to produce heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. Sensitive
places such as burn scars, steep terrain, etc., would be the most
vulnerable to possible flooding concerns. Broad Marginal Risks of
excessive rainfall span from the Southwest and Intermountain
West/Rockies to the central Plains Wednesday and Thursday and an
embedded Slight Risk area was introduced for the northern
Intermountain West/Rockies for Wednesday given anomalous moisture.

Upper ridge/closed high influence shift to south-central U.S. will
lead to at least Major HeatRisks over much of the South this week
as temperatures upwards to 5-10F above already hot averages
combine with high humidity. Expect spotty record highs and more
widespread record overnight lows to limit relief. Heat indices rise
rise upwards to 105-110+F in some spots, with focus expanding up
through the Plains and into the desert Southwest by next weekend.

Elsewhere, heavy rains with strong to severe thunderstorms per SPC
are forecast to focus into the East Coast and especially the Mid-
Atlantic/Southeast mid/later week given support aloft and wavy
frontal push. Elongated WPC Excessive Rainfall Marginal Risk areas
over much of the East Coast Wednesday and Thursday also feature
embedded Slight Risk areas over the coastal Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

Meanwhile to the South, a moist and unstable environment over the
northeastern Gulf remains monitored for tropical genesis as early
as today by NHC. Troughing and tropical moisture in place may lead
to heavy rain. Marginal Risk areas are in place from the coastal
Southeast/northern Florida through the central Gulf Coast for flash
flooding threats possible for Wednesday and Thursday.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw















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