582
FXUS02 KWBC 120800
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jun 19 2026


...Heat to build over the West/Southwest early-mid next midweek...

...Heavy rain/flooding threat for The South early-mid next week...


...Overview...

It remains the case that an unseasonably amplified pattern will be
in place across the Continental U.S. from the weekend to well into next
week as a mean upper trough consolidates over the central and
eastern U.S. early in the period before slowly moving east later
on. A leading/trailing frontal boundary is forecast to gradually
sink across the south-central to southeastern U.S., focusing
moisture for rain and thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy and lead
to flooding concerns given a growing signal for deep influx of
tropical moisture from the western Gulf. Upstream, upper ridging
will build over the West through early next week, leading to hot
temperatures that will be well above average in the Pacific
Northwest. The amplified flow becomes more zonal later next week
as heat focus shifts downstream across the south-central U.S..

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance continues to have a solid handle on the evolution of the
mid-large scale upper pattern through most of the medium range
period, featuring a West Coast/West ridge and reinforcement of a
central to eastern U.S. trough. This amplified pattern may turn
more zonal later next week as incoming shortwave energies
potentially flatten the ridge while trough energies gradually lift
out. A model/ensemble mean/machine learning guidance/manual blend
offers a reasonable forecast basis with smaller scale spatial and
temporal details mitigated as consistent with individual
predictability. This solution seems in line with the National
Blend of Models and offers reasonable WPC product continuity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A potent and wavy cold front is forecast to slowly move southeast
across the U.S. southern tier from late this weekend into next
week, providing a focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Ample
moisture and instability interacting with the generally west to
east oriented front will mean an ample downpour/flash flooding
threat is possible with the potential for repeat/training storms.
The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook offers Marginal and Slight Risk
areas for flooding over the South through early next week.

Elsewhere, rain and thunderstorms are also possible from the
Appalachians to the Eastern Seaboard into Monday along and ahead
of the northern part of the front. Meanwhile, the back end of the
front may produce some light to moderate rain over the Rockies and
Four Corners states into early next week. A secondary front and
shortwave energies could also bring some scattered showers and
storms to the north-central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes early
next week and may re-develop and expand/increase into next midweek
given growing support in guidance to monitor.

Cooler than average temperatures are likely underneath the upper
trough and behind the cold front in the north-central U.S.,
spreading into the South and East as the week progresses while
moderating. Meanwhile, the West will be rather warm under the upper
ridge. The Desert Southwest can expect temperatures well into the
100s and perhaps over 110 into much of next week, with warmer than
average temperatures extending into the central Great Basin. Above
average temperatures should also be present in the Pacific
Northwest early next week. Daily record highs could be broken as
temperatures reach the 90s to perhaps 100 in the Willamette Valley
and 80s farther north toward Seattle. Widespread Moderate to
scattered Major HeatRisk is forecast for much of the West.
Temperatures should gradually moderate in the Pacific Northwest,
but above normal conditions will push east across the Intermountain
West and reach the Plains and especially south-central areas midweek.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




$$