


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
233 FXUS02 KWBC 062020 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 420 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 09 2025 - 12Z Mon Oct 13 2025 ...General Overview... A deep upper low is expected to develop off the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday and then swing onshore on Saturday while opening into a trough and drawing tropical moisture up through the Intermountain West from tropical cyclone Priscilla in the process. Meanwhile, there continues to be increasing model support for a coastal storm to develop off the coast of the southeastern U.S. this weekend before possibly tracking up the Mid-Atlantic coast. In between these systems is persistent upper-level ridging centered over Texas with an axis that extends up the Great Plains this weekend and then gradually shifts east into the Great Lakes. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The medium-range period begins with continued excellent model agreement on the formation of a closed upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest on Thursday and then drifts southward on Friday. Thereafter, model guidance today generally shows a faster eastward progression of the upper low onshore by Saturday while opening up into a trough. The GEFS mean has been most notable in this eastward shift relative to the more consistent EC mean. In general, models are trending toward bringing more QPF into northern California and up the coast of the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Farther south across the Southwest, model guidance continues to indicate a higher degree of uncertainty than desired regarding the plume of tropical moisture that is forecast to be drawn northward from tropical cyclone Priscilla in the eastern Pacific. Given the relatively broad circulation and deep convection associated with the intensifying Priscilla, today`s GFS has shifted toward a faster and farther northward track in much better agreement with the more consistent and faster ECMWF forecast track for Priscilla. This has resulted in a higher QPF footprint near the Four Corners region with the GFS/GEFS solutions but it remains farther southeast than the EC/EC mean solutions. The WPC QPF for this tropical plume for today is based on 65% from the 00Z EC/EC mean solutions and the remainder from the 06Z GFS/GEFS, and 00Z CMC/CMC mean. Near the East Coast this weekend, models continue to signal a synoptic pattern that favors coastal cyclogenesis. The EC-AIFS has been the most consistent guidance in depicting a nor`easter type of cyclone to form and track up the East Coast this weekend to early next week. Other dynamical global models have since followed suit to depict cyclogenesis to some extent near the East Coast but with a wide range of possible solutions. The latest 12Z ECMWF now shows the possibility of a cyclone that never reaches the latitude of North Carolina as it turns west toward the coast and acquires some tropical characteristics. The WPC medium-range forecast charts today were based on a consensus blend of 65% from the 00Z EC/EC mean, 20% from the 06Z GFS/GEFS, and 15% from the 00Z CMC/CMC mean, with subjective manual modifications for the East Coast cyclone Day 6-7. Agreement with the previous WPC forecast package was reasonably good but with the position of the low closer to the West Coast early next week. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... An influx of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific ahead of Priscilla is expected Friday through the weekend with the initial surge of moisture still possible into the Desert Southwest Thursday night. The Day 4 ERO maintains a Marginal over north- central AZ. Greater moisture surge on Friday warrants a larger Marginal for Day 5 which should eventually have some Slight Risks given the 2 to 3 standard deviation positive moisture anomaly but uncertainties remain higher than desired to specify its placement. The tropical moisture surge then overspreads the Intermountain West this weekend, though the ejection of the trough from the West Coast still has some timing uncertainty which will define where and when the heavy rain threat is. Higher QPF is indicated today across northern California due to the faster approach of the upper low. Expect mountain snow under the upper trough when it passes. Low pressure looks to develop along a stalled boundary off the Southeast Coast Friday night with a surge of heavy rain along the Carolina Coast. A Day 5 Marginal ERO is maintained along the Carolina Coast. This nor`easter should slowly move up the East Coast and will need to be further monitored this weekend for significant rain and wind potential. Cool conditions with max temperatures five or so degrees below normal overspread the Northeast and Eastern Seaboard for Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile, ridging over Texas amplifies up the Rockies and Great Plains this weekend which will maintain above normal temperatures. Cool conditions are expected over the West behind the cold front once the low off the Pacific Northwest ejects east. Kong/Jackson Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$