


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
678 FXUS02 KWBC 020657 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 05 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 09 2025 ...Multi-day and potentially catastrophic heavy rain/flooding and severe threat likely for Lower/Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys into Saturday... ...Overview... A significant and potentially historic flooding and flash flooding event will be ongoing as the period begins on Saturday along a wavy frontal boundary from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. This front is sandwiched between a strong Atlantic to Gulf upper ridge and an amplified western U.S. trough. A gradually amplifying Canada into northern U.S. upper trough nearing the East into Monday and eventual southern stream energy ejection and phasing will finally help to push the frontal boundary and rainfall east with some heavy rainfall potential along the central Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast. A shortwave into the West on Sunday-Monday could bring some light precipitation to parts of the Northwest. After Monday, the medium range period should trend much drier across the country as the overall pattern deamplifies. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest model guidance agrees fairly well on the main aspects of the forecast through medium range time scales and have good ensemble and machine learning model support. There are differences still with some embedded lower predictability details, which would have sensible weather impacts. Shortwaves and energy perturbations exiting thae western trough do still show some spread, and will play a role in exactly where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Either way, models have been extremely consistent in showing a significant flooding event from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley lasting through Saturday. Timing and aspects of the Great Lakes to Northeast trough have also improved, but there is still some uncertainty on how quickly southern stream energy finally ejects east. Another shortwave into the Northwest shows some timing uncertainties as well (CMC is slower than the ECMWF and GFS) with bigger questions on how this evolves downstream mid next week and how strong ridging is over the Southwest. The WPC forecast for tonight utilized a deterministic model blend the first half of the period amidst minimal model spread. By Day 5 and beyond, gradually increased the ensemble means to help mitigate differences in the deterministic guidance, though still maintained some operational models (anchored by the ECMWF) for added system definition. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A wavy and stuck frontal boundary will continue to focus moist and unstable inflow leading to widespread flash flooding concerns which should begin during the short range period and continue through about Saturday. For several days now, models have been indicating significant multi-day rainfall totals, especially across Arkansas into western Kentucky where 24-hour totals on Saturday alone in excess of 4-5 inches could be realized in some spots (and this is on top of potentially 5-10 inches of rainfall in the short range as well). A catastrophic and life-threatening flash flood event is likely and the Day 4/Saturday ERO continues to show a large moderate risk from northeast Arkansas into western Kentucky/southern Indiana, with a likely high risk upgrade needed once this moves into the short range period. By Sunday, the heavy rain threat should finally begin to shift eastward with moderate to heavy rains possible across the Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast, and rainfall farther north into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast near the front. The Sunday ERO shows a marginal risk for this region with an embedded slight risk farther south across parts of southern Alabama and Mississippi where recent heavy rainfall has primed soils and the greatest instability should be located. Out West, an upper low dug into the Southwest into Saturday is expected to lead to enhanced precipitation totals across the southern and central Rockies and Plains. Snow is likely in higher elevations of the Rockies in Colorado and northern New Mexico, with some snow possibly spilling into lower elevations of the High Plains as enhanced by cooled post-frontal upslope flow. Elsewhere by Monday, a cold upper trough reaching the Great Lakes should lead to unsettled weather over the region with rain or snow. Meanwhile upstream, upper shortwave/front expected to reach the West Coast into early next week offers seemingly modest moisture transport, but will likely bring some light to terrain enhanced moderate activity to western Washington/Oregon and northwestern California, with decreasing amounts inland over the Northwest. Above normal temperatures will linger across much of the East through the weekend with daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Best potential for daily records will be across the South/Southeast into southern Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, well below normal temperatures will be in place across parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains where daytime highs 10 to 25 degrees below normal are possible this weekend. Moderated below normal temperatures also shift into the central U.S. and Midwest Monday and the East mid next week. Warmer than average temperatures initially over the Northwest this weekend should expand into the remainder of the West and the northern/central Plains by next week. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$