Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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344 FXUS02 KWBC 231859 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 159 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 26 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 30 2024 ...Messy Thanksgiving travel possible in the eastern half of the U.S., including potential central/northern tier winter weather... ...Overview... A southeastern Canada/New England system will produce some modest rain/mainly higher elevation snow Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind this low, quasi-zonal upper flow should should prevail across most of the lower 48 while an initial trough/possible small upper low near the West Coast becomes embedded within the westerlies. This shortwave will help spread precipitation across parts of the West and produce heavy snow in higher elevations through midweek, and then combine with northern stream energies farther eastward as the large scale pattern settles into a mean trough over the eastern half or more of the country with an upstream ridge over the Northeast Pacific. Guidance continues to show developing low pressure ahead of the evolving eastern upper trough but with significant detail differences affecting sensible weather. Currently the best potential for moderate to heavy precipitation exists across the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic during a portion of the mid-late week period. Some wintry precipitation may be possible in the northern part of the moisture shield and in higher elevations. East of the Rockies, the deepening upper trough and cold surface high pressure will increase the coverage of colder than average temperatures as the week progresses. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest guidance continues to agree fairly well for the large scale pattern but ongoing disagreements/variability with initial West Coast shortwave energy and trailing northern stream flow maintain considerable spread for eastern U.S. low pressure by the latter half of the week. In addition, differences exist for a southern stream trough/upper low that may approach California toward the end of the week (affecting precipitation coverage/amounts over California and the Southwest) while there is also spread for the longitude of Northeast Pacific ridging. Even including the new 12Z runs, guidance remains far apart for specifics of the initial shortwave near the West Coast. Continuing its theme from the 00Z cycle, the UKMET is on the slow extreme while the new 12Z CMC has jumped to the fast side. The new 12Z ECMWF has adjusted faster to a less extreme degree, and both of those new 12Z runs now deepen low pressure more quickly with a track into New England and then Quebec (ECMWF farther northwest). This differs from what has been a recent majority cluster depicting a somewhat farther southeast track, or previously in some guidance runs an Ohio Valley low followed by secondary coastal development. In contrast the 00Z CMC eventually strayed to the suppressed side over the Atlantic. The 12Z UKMET is also quite suppressed due to its slow West Coast shortwave. Meanwhile, latest machine learning (ML) guidance has at least been trimming its weak/suppressed side of the spread late this week while still showing a subset of solutions a little northwest of the dynamical ensemble means and GFS runs/00Z ECMWF. By early Saturday the ML runs generally favor the system reaching somewhere in the vicinity of Nova Scotia (or a little west/north/east), with an average depth in the 980s mb. A blend of the 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF and ensemble means provided a reasonable intermediate approach given the spread and guidance variability, with reasonable continuity aside from typical minor timing adjustments. Along the West Coast late in the period, guidance has been gradually becoming a little better defined/clustered with the upper trough/low and weak surface system offshore California, with an average of (minus the farther south 12Z UKMET as of the end of its run early Friday) looking reasonable. Farther north, some noticeable differences arise with the longitude of the upper ridge axis. Consensus keeps it farther offshore than the 12Z UKMET, but there is a minority portion of the ML model envelope that would bring the ridge a little farther east than seen in most of the dynamical models/means by next Saturday. It will be worth watching for any such trends in the dynamical guidance. The updated forecast based on 00Z/06Z guidance started with an operational model blend with greater emphasis on the 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF early in the period, followed by removal of the minority UKMET component after Wednesday and the CMC after early Friday. 06Z GEFS/00Z ECens filled in for the removed models and ultimately reached 40 percent total input by next Saturday. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A Pacific moisture plume, initially with precipitable water values at least three standard deviations above normal, will sink slowly southward into Tuesday with some continued rain and high elevation snow over California. The moisture along with shortwave energy to the north providing dynamical support/strong westerly flow aloft will likely focus the heaviest totals into the central-southern Sierra Nevada. Although this region is south of areas that were most impacted by the recent significant atmospheric river, guidance clustering has improved regarding the threat of significant totals on Tuesday and first-guess excessive rainfall guidance also shows potential for high enough totals/rates to merit a risk area. Thus the Day 4 ERO has introduced a Marginal Risk area for the western slopes of the central-southern Sierra Nevada below the expected snow level. Some meaningful rainfall is possible farther west along the California coast but likely with less extreme totals. Expect significant snow to extend into the Intermountain West higher elevations including the Wasatch and into the central Rockies as well. The heavy snow could accumulate to 1 to 3 feet in the Sierra Nevada and 1 to 2 feed in the Colorado Rockies. Precipitation should finally abate in the West for the latter part of next week. Farther east, light to moderate precipitation is likely across the Northeast into Tuesday with the leading low pressure system, and breezy westerly flow on the backside of the low will also produce some lake effect and upslope rain/snow showers. Then as another low pressure/frontal system develops in the south-central Plains and tracks eastward/northeastward as the week progresses, precipitation is likely for much of the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday-Friday. Currently the heaviest rainfall axis looks to be around the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley late Wednesday-Thursday, though with uncertainty in placement. Gave some consideration to a Marginal Risk for the Day 5/Wednesday ERO as convection is forecast to ramp up Wednesday evening/night in an environment with some instability, and the west-east track of the convection along the surface low may lead to some training of storms. Plan to hold off on any risk area for now given the continued track/timing differences for low pressure and associated effects on rainfall coverage/rates. Snow or ice may be possible north of the low track and frontal boundary, possibly impacting travel. The Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook indicates some low probabilities for snow greater than 0.25" liquid equivalent across parts of the central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday, the Upper Ohio Valley and the central/northern Appalachians into northern Pennsylvania and the interior Northeast by Thanksgiving Day, and lingering across the Northeast and the Great Lakes/Appalachians on the backside of the low by next Friday. But the axis of snow (and possibly ice) will be quite dependent on the uncertain surface low track, and confidence remains below average regarding specifics of precipitation coverage/type/amounts. Continue to monitor forecasts as details become better refined over the coming days. Expect temperatures to be warmer than average across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, but a cold frontal passage by midweek will lead to highs near or a few degrees below normal. Also above average temperatures may progress from the Southwest on Tuesday into the southern Plains by Wednesday, with some plus 10F or greater anomalies. A couple surges of Arctic air look to impact the northern Plains through Tuesday and again later week, with highs in the teens and lows below 0F in some areas, equating to at least 10-20F below normal. North Dakota and parts of Montana will see the best potential for some even colder anomalies. The second surge of cold air should eventually overspread much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies (in moderated fashion), leading to below normal temperatures across much of the Plains/Mississippi Valley through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the week. Expect moderately below normal high temperatures to spread across areas west of the Rockies mid-late week, trending close to normal by next Saturday. Rausch/Tate Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$