245
FXUS02 KWBC 030714
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 10 2026

...Heavy rain/flooding and severe weather expected in the south-
central U.S. late week through the weekend...


...Overview...

Shortwave trough energy will eject through the Northeast Friday
and promote precipitation including wintry weather into a cold air
dammed airmass. Well behind this feature, broader troughing is
forecast to dive through an unsetled West late week and split off a
southern stream upper low near northern Mexico by the weekend.
This pattern will advect ample moisture and instability especially
into the central U.S. in a channel stuck between western U.S.
troughing and South/Southeast/East upper ridging. This will fuel
widespread thunderstorms with severe and flooding potential with
repeat focus over the south-central U.S. and vicinity as enhanced
by wavy frontal systems. Additionally, expect unseasonably warm
pre- frontal temperatures to include some widespread record values
in the eastern half of the U.S. under the downstream upper ridge.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Forecast spread and uncertainty has decreased significantly over
the last several guidance cycles for much of the nation through
medium range time scales, bolstering forecast confidence. A
composite of well clustered output of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian
models, ensemble means and machine learning guidance provides a
solid forecast basis in line with the National Blend of Models.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A shortwave trough and wavy frontal system will eject from the
Midwest through the Northeast into Friday and pooling moisture may
fuel lingering areas of moderate rains. Farther north, overrunning
moisture into cold dammed Canadian high pressure as driven by more
progressive northern stream energies should also support some snow
from northern portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to the
Interior Northeast where conditions also support an ice/freezing
rain transition zone to monitor.

Upstream, an amplified upper trough will dig sharply southeastward
through the West into Friday and bring unsettled and cooling flow
along with a widespread moderate precipitation focus out from the
Pacific Northwest through the north-central Intermountain/Rockies
to include terrain enhanced snows. A split upper flow pattern
should become dominant as this energy separates into the southern
stream and stalls near Baja California into the weekend and early
next week. With the western trough and upper low pattern, Pacific
and Gulf moisture will flow into the central U.S. along with
instability, while a wavy front is in place. Runoff threats may
build with each round of rain given a repeating pattern with some
cell training potential. Marginal Risk areas for the threat of
excessive rainfall for flooding/runoff are in place for portions of
the south-central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
vicinity Day 4/Friday and especially by Day 5/Saturday with a
protracted wet period at least through this weekend to monitor. SPC
is also highlighting severe weather potential. More modest
precipitation should spread into the Northeast, mostly in the form
of rain, though the northern fringe may see wintry weather.

In this pattern, amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper
ridging significant springtime warming will build over the central
and eastern U.S. late week, lasting in the East into early next
week. Temperatures will be 20-30 degrees above average, with 80s
reaching as far north as parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
Daily records could become widespread.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw






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