382
FXUS02 KWBC 041956
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jun 11 2026


...East-central to Southeast U.S. heavy convective rainfall/runoff
pattern next week as unsettled wet weather works over the West...


...Overview...

Southern stream shortwave energy riding slowly on/into the western
periphery of an amplifying upper ridge settling over the East will
pool deep moisture/instability to fuel ample and repeat
thunderstorm and heavy rainfall activity from the Southern Plains
and Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
eventually linking with deep moist activity with a slow frontal
push into the Southeast next week on the backside of a western
Atlantic amplified upper trough. Meanwhile, protracted mean upper
troughing over the West will periodically be reinforced to offer
cooling and moderate Northwest through Rockies precipitation.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance offers a reasonably similar pattern evolution through
medium range time scales despite numerous embedded smaller scale
system variances, especially within amplified mean upper troughs
over the West Coast/West and off the East Coast. A guidance
composite seems to produce a solid forecast basis for early next
week, but favor a GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean blend mid-later next
week to mitigate variances and maintain flow on the more amplified
side of the full envelope of solutions given trends/history. It is
also important to note that the GFS also shows more tropical
interaction up into Florida Days 6/7 that is not supported by NHC.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Surface low pressure systems and meso-boundaries through the
Plains will further focus scattered showers/thunderstorms from the
eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley Sunday and Monday. Day
4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday Marginal Risks of excessive rainfall are
in place and will be monitorred for upgrade given favorable
conditions once local details show a stronger signal in guidance.
The threat for excessive rainfall also shifts into the Tennessee
Valley on Monday, due to persistent moist southerly flow into the
Central and Southern U.S.. The lingering upper low/trough may also
spread convective rainfall over the Ohio Valley through midweek.
This activity may link with an ongoing focus for moderate to heavy
showers/thunderstorms along/south of a slow moving cold front
slated to slip down the Eastern Seaboard next week. The signal for
a heavy rainfall/runoff threat growis for the Southeast/Florida.

A pair of deep mid-level lows will bring rainfall to the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday and Monday and lingering with cooling into mid-
later next week while spreading moisture, supported by the second
reinforcing low, into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains
again by Tuesday/Wednesday along with a severe threat as per SPC.

Kebede/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw


































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