442
FXUS02 KWBC 080600
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Dec 11 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 15 2025


...A shot of quite cold air has been saved for portions of the
Northern Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley this weekend...


...Overview...
A broad upper level trough with reinforcing shortwaves will
continue to dominate areas east of the Rockies with broad ridging
persisting along the West Coast through this weekend, though the
amplitude of both appears to be weakening. While the heavy
precipitation and high wind threat fades in the Northwest, cold
weather and clipper systems will be favored in this pattern east of
the Rockies with enhanced northern tier wind/snow chances and
following lake effect snow in the lee of the Great Lakes.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
While detail issues remain with shortwaves and resultant
ridge/trough strength, the guidance is in much better agreement
than last night. A general model compromise worked out well for the
pressures/fronts/500 hPa heights. This led to the 01z NBM being
more useful, though its struggle with reasonable QPF magnitude
near the Great Lakes and wind (in general) remains real.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
As the heavy precipitation/wind threat across the Northwest slowly
fades, the Marginal Risk across western WA remains to account for
saturated soils from heavy rains that have shifted into the short
range period for day 4/Thursday.

To the east, clipper systems/disturbances rounding the base of the
trough will bring rounds of precipitation, mainly snow, over a
cold northern Plains and Midwest, Great Lakes/Appalachians, and the
Northeast next week. Reinforcing fronts slow as they approach
Florida and help solidify the polar front across the Caribbean
Sea, but each leads to a threat rain near the Gulf Coast/Florida.

A strong temperature gradient is forecast across the High Plains
Thursday into early next week with 15-25F above average
temperatures across the West and 20-30F below average temperatures
Friday through this weekend from the Northern Plains across the
Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley.

Roth


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw




$$