545
FXUS02 KWBC 070614
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025


...Heavy rain threat for the South next week...

...Interior West to South Texas heat wave ending by early next week...


...Overview...

A cold front will swing through the Northeast early next week,
providing support for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms on
Tuesday. The western portion of this front will settle across the
South before eventually lifting northward as a warm front and
weakening. Moisture and instability along this front will support
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall particularly from the Southern
Plains into the Gulf Coast states. A shortwave through the
Northern Plains mid to late next week will bring showers and
thunderstorms. Short range hazardous heat threats across the West
and south Texas will wane by Tuesday/Wednesday, with deeper
troughing reaching the West Coast next Thursday.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model and ensemble guidance continues to show above average
agreement on the overall large scale pattern and evolution during
the medium range period, but still with plenty of uncertainty in
the details which would impact sensible weather. Minor differences
in the timing of a pair of shortwaves sliding through the
Northeast, but a general model compromise worked as a good starting
point for the early part of the forecast period. By Thursday, the
GFS is a bit faster with a weak shortwave through the central U.S.
and also begins to exhibit more noticeable differences with the
next trough in the West. Energy will send an initial shortwave into
the northern Rockies, with additional energy acting to reinforce
troughing around Friday-Saturday. The GFS was overall quicker with
this evolution. The WPC forecast blend for late period leaned
slightly heavier on the ensemble means, along with the ECMWF.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A trailing frontal boundary draped generally west to east across
the South will provide focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms
through much of next week. The Days 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks (valid Tuesday and Wednesday) reflect this. For Day 4, a
very broad marginal risk stretches all the way from the southern
Plains/High Plains to the Gulf Coast states. Models are starting to
show better consensus on potentially flooding rains impacting
central Texas, but still with enough uncertainty to preclude a
slight risk at this time. For Day 5, there is better agreement on
heavy to excessive rainfall again in central Texas, and combined
with rainfall in the same region on Day 4, went ahead and added a
slight risk to the ERO for tonight. By Thursday, this boundary
looks to lift northward with heavy rainfall potential moving into
the central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley which has been wet as of
late and will need to be monitored for flooding concerns later this
week.

The northern portion of this boundary should be quicker to move
through the East, but heavy rainfall is possible along the boundary
amidst ample moisture and instability and favorable upper level
dynamics. A marginal risk for the interior Northeast remains on the
Day 4 ERO. Elsewhere, additional short wave energy interacting
with a frontal boundary across the northern tier will bring showers
and storms from parts of the northern Rockies into the Upper
Midwest. Marginal risk areas were added to the Day 5/Wednesday ERO
tonight for parts of Montana and also South
Dakota/Minnesota/Wisconsin.

Much above normal temperatures will continue into early next week
for the Northwest, with anomalies of +20-25F likely to continue on
Tuesday. This should equate to a moderate to major HeatRisk for
parts of this region along with widespread record highs.
Temperatures and HeatRisk should by Wednesday, but remain slightly
above normal, including farther south into the central Great Basin.
Short range heat across South Texas should be much less extreme by
Tuesday as an upper level shortwave moves into the region. By next
Thursday-Saturday, most of the country will be near or within a
few degrees of normal.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw





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