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FXUS02 KWBC 140806
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 17 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 21 2025


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance still offers a reasonably similar larger scale pattern
evolution through med-range time scales over much of the nation
as highlighted by the departure of upper troughing from the
Northeast into early-mid next week and continued emergence next
week of a pattern with a series of weather focusing systems within
an emerging southern stream. However, guidance soluitons continue
to ossilate from cycle to cycle in particular with respect to the
extent of amplitude and progression of systems set to dig off the
West Coast and timings into this southern stream Days 3-7. 00 UTC
models are leaning toward amplitude and that trend seems reasonable
given stormy upstream flow, albeit not well supported by recent
machine learning guidance. Overall, a blend of the GFS/ECMWF and
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means may provide a reasonable forecast base.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An initially closed southern stream upper low/trough will eject out from
the Southwest/Rockies to the Plains by Monday and then shear
eastward. This occurs as kicker upper troughing upstream reaches
the West Coast to promote another round of enhanced precipitation.
However, moisture feed into the West should be much weaker than the
system during the short range period. Even so, have maintained a
Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall threat for Day 4/Monday for
southern California as this area tends to be sensitive due to
terrain enhancement of precipitation and burn scars, and precursor
heavy rains. Rain and higher elevation snow will continue tracking
east into Tuesday, and yet another possible upper trough may bring
additional precipitation to the West Coast by Thursday.
Precipitation could be moderate or heavy at times to monitor.

A frontal system emerging into the central U.S. on Monday should
start to spread rain through the Plains, Middle Mississippi
Valley, and Ohio Valley, with perhaps some snow/mix on the northern
edge of the precipitation shield. The complex front is currently
forecast to stretch across the southern Plains to Mississippi
Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, bringing rain chances
there and into the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
Another front should reach the Plains into mid-later next week
along with troughing aloft, with deeper return moisture into the front
offering a threat of an emerging heavy rainfall pattern across the
south-central U.S. along with potential thunderstorms. Several
models indicate the potential for several inches of rain, which can
bring a flood risk if this trend continues. There is also an
increasing concern for severe weather beginning Wednesday.

Temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average for much of
the central to southern U.S. on Sunday. Highs in the 60s should
reach the central High Plains, around 10-15 degrees above average,
while highs in the 80s will be common across Texas, Louisiana, and
Florida with 70s across the rest of the Southeast. The southern
Plains to Southeast can expect temperatures to remain warmer than
average through much of next week to the south of the west-east
oriented front. There are some model differences in frontal
position that will be the dividing line between near normal to
above normal conditions, so the temperature forecasts will continue
to be refined. Meanwhile the rounds of troughing in California to
the Southwest will lead to below average highs there most days.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw






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