444
FXUS02 KWBC 230618
PMDEPD

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 26 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 30 2026


...West-Central to Southern U.S. Hazardous Heat this weekend into
next week as monsoonal rains focus over the Four Corners states...

...Heavy convection/rain pattern focus into the East next week...


...Pattern Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models and ensembles are in good agreement and forecast confidence
is favorable with the larger scale upper pattern development and
persistence this weekend into next week. The amplified pattern will
feature a warming Intermountain West/Southwest/Rockies/Plains to
the South ridge sandwiched between troughs just off the West Coast
and over an increasingly unsettled/wet eastern U.S.. Ample
uncertainties grow with time with individual systems working
through the flow and local sensible weather impacts. Differences
seem reasonably mitigated as consistent with individual
predictability with a favored broad guidance blend Sunday-Tuesday
before a pivot to a best compatible multi-model ensemble means and
machine learning guidance blend into next Wednesday/Thursday. WPC
threat messaging continuity is well maintained in this manner.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Upper ridge influence offers Major to Extreme HeatRisk threats to
shift this weekend and next week from the Southwest/Intermountain
West/Rockies and the Northern Plains down through the south-
central U.S. and the South. Expect spotty record highs and more
widespread record overnight lows to limit relief from the heatwave.

Some moderating flow within and around the western periphery of
the upper ridge will occur as significant monsoonal moisture feeds
into the Southwest and Intermountain West/Rockies/Plains this week,
with the next influx of moisture from Mexico possible early next
week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potentials.
Sensitive places such as burn scars, steep terrain, etc. would be
the most vulnerable to possible flooding concerns. WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Marginal Risks areas are for Sunday/Monday.

Ample northern stream system energies set to dig into the upper
trough position over the East will support organized enhanced to
heavy convective rainfall potential from the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley Sunday to the Eastern Seaboard through early-mid next week.
ERO Marginal Risk areas have been introduced for Sunday/Monday.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

































$$