444
WTPZ25 KNHC 040840
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152025
0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 123.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 123.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.6N 123.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 124.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 123.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 121.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  40SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY